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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

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My first time peeking at all of the modeling in 24 hrs.

It looks like best mid level snows would perhaps be as far west as ALB/Berks. I don't see this screwing anyone in eastern portions. It's an absolute bomb. The front end thump smokes everyone. 

I don't see any cf circlejerk being the main emphasis. 

Perhaps the best combination of snow and wind I've seen in models in quite some time. The front end thump drops 1.2" in 6 hours over E MA. Meanwhile, 50-70 kt winds even miles inland to 495. 

This could be one of the best March snowstorms in the books.

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
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Just now, moneypitmike said:

Off to bed.  DST models runs, ftl.  I guess I'll be drinking my morning coffee an hour after the EC comes out though.  Fingers are crossed.

I just slept all day. Popped a flew sleep aids to try and get back on schedule. Hoping I wake up around 2-3am. Would leave me a few hours to look at modeling, shower, get ready for work. 

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
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Just now, JC-CT said:

Because it's not available anywhere? I don't know. I'm just saying what it showed.

Yeah I know but truthfully I think ukmet generally blows.  It's had those scores for many years but I named it crazy uncle due to its propensity for wild swings.   I probably call it a night after the NAM comes in and check out everything else tomorrow which should be hectic.

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J Paul Gordon

J Paul Gordon

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This whole ukmet discussion seems way out of balance considering the preponderance of agreement in the other models. Furthest west model (GFS?) take the slp over the canal. Almost everyone else in agreement that its gonna be somewhere between ACK and the benchmark. Bit of a waste of time debating it. Of course, if it verified it would be quite the coup. Not holding my breath on that.

 

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Hoth

Hoth

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17 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Good lord. hr 60 on the 12z euro is porn. Probably one of the best 6 hrs I've ever seen modeled on the Euro this close to a storm.

Combination of wind and snow at the same time. Jesus H. 

Yeah I was Googling images of the Euro from previous blizzards, and that is right up there with the best of them.

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Greg

Greg

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Yeah I know but truthfully I think ukmet generally blows.  It's had those scores for many years but I named it crazy uncle due to its propensity for wild swings.   I probably call it a night after the NAM comes in and check out everything else tomorrow which should be hectic.

Make sure to check the GFS also. It to will give an idea where everything is starting to go.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
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1 minute ago, J Paul Gordon said:

This whole ukmet discussion seems way out of balance considering the preponderance of agreement in the other models. Furthest west model (GFS?) take the slp over the canal. Almost everyone else in agreement that its gonna be somewhere between ACK and the benchmark. Bit of a waste of time debating it. Of course, if it verified it would be quite the coup. Not holding my breath on that.

 

To you-not to me.

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weathafella

weathafella

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Just now, Greg said:

Make sure to check the GFS also. It to will give an idea where everything is starting to go.

We leave our phones and other internet devices downstairs-no electronics in the bedroom.  I'll read for awhile but will probably slip downstairs at 11:45....lol.

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

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2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Yeah I was Googling images of the Euro from previous blizzards, and that is right up there with the best of them.

Usually we see images like this 100 hrs out and say it's overdone. Seeing it be that intense during the heaviest snow is a rarity. Even if we don't realize those numbers, it's a big sign the wind will likely be roaring. 

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

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Just now, Powderboy413 said:

You guys are buggin. This storm has a perfect track for all sne, far and wet precip field, cold in place. This is coming and going to come hard. Should be one of the best widespread storms of the 2010 decade

This will be a tremendous storm for those who have their expectations in check. That's not to say there won't be complications with these mid level tracks. It's a little funky and unpredictable. Some will lose, some will win in this one. But everyone will see a very good storm for March. 

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weathafella

weathafella

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Are you shook?

Jerry you are getting crushed.  The QPF is huge...even wet snow will be big.  12-18" at least.  Chance of 24".  

 

No never shook-it always is what it is.  If we inexplicably lose this my life work wise is far less complicated.

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ROOSTA

ROOSTA

Posted
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6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Roosta/Don had me thinking...will this be in a top 3 NESIS for March?   Lots of people effected

A Pre postmortem: 
93 was a CAT5
60 was a CAT4
1888 who really cares. Find it hard to believe the 6' amounts in the HV.
Been awhile since I scanned the KU book, in fact I broke it out last July sunning trying to cool off...LOL

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