March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[dendrite]

A little OT, but a cool read on the description of the German ICON...

https://www.dwd.de/EN/research/weatherforecasting/num_modelling/01_num_weather_prediction_modells/icon_description.html

I wish we had some stats on it.

[CoastalWx]

You guys are pulling out the stops with those models. I salute you. 

[dendrite]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

You guys are pulling out the stops with those models. I salute you. 

It can't be any worse than the GFS, NAM, and GGEM, right?

[The 4 Seasons]

Whats up with the ARCHEPELGO? anyone post that french fest?

[weathafella]

Someone please post a Harvey map or describe.  I'm shopping and have limited access.

 

TYIA

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It can't be any worse than the GFS, NAM, and GGEM, right?

I've never heard of it. I saw Tim Kelly pull out the Swedish model the other day.  Does the Brat model have a Kuchera version?

[ORH_wxman]

Been out most of the day but have been able to look at guidance. Still a tough call on amounts. I think 10-20 is a good starting point NW of PYM for most of SNE. But some of these mid level tracks are definitely good enough to support a swath of probably 2 feet jackpots. My gut says we see a very small wiggle east on euro and a jump NW on GFS. Like a 70/30 compromise....but either way this is gonna be pretty impressive. Just massive PWAT enriched air in the WCB. 

[ajisai]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Someone please post a Harvey map or describe.  I'm shopping and have limited access.

 

TYIA

 

 

this is from his twitter... don't have ABC on my internet TV

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Someone please post a Harvey map or describe.  I'm shopping and have limited access.

 

TYIA

12-18 down to near Marshfield-Tainton. He mentioned sleet possible there because of euro.

[CoastalWx]

RPM occluded the low in ORH county lol.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 Does the Brat model have a Kuchera version?

German engineering would never allow such a thing. 

[weathafella]

7 minutes ago, ajisai said:

 

this is from his twitter... don't have ABC on my internet TV

Thanks!  Looking good.  Harvey only comes in weekends for the big boys.

[HoarfrostHubb]

26 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Jan 96 went from hours of virga to a wall. 78 went epic in minutes

Yup.  I don't think I have seen a wall come in like 1978 since then.  I started the day at school and we were at recess when it came in.  It was hard for the kids to get home. Plus the school roof collapsed

[weathafella]

Isn't RPM of limited use 48 hours out?  I thought someone said that..

[Lava Rock]

Meh...if we see widespread 40-60mph gusts up here I will eat all of my chickens.

Didn't you eat one the other day

[CarverWX]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Thanks!  Looking good.  Harvey only comes in weekends for the big boys.

He must believe we see some mixing down this way. Box still has in the 12-18 range.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

Didn't you eat one the other day

He will eat one for 18"+ of snow

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Been out most of the day but have been able to look at guidance. Still a tough call on amounts. I think 10-20 is a good starting point NW of PYM for most of SNE. But some of these mid level tracks are definitely good enough to support a swath of probably 2 feet jackpots. My gut says we see a very small wiggle east on euro and a jump NW on GFS. Like a 70/30 compromise....but either way this is gonna be pretty impressive. Just massive PWAT enriched air in the WCB. 

Yes, please.

That would be perfect.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Didn't you eat one the other day

He passed out after 2 brews and the ukie last night. 

[Gwhizkids]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You guys are pulling out the stops with those models. I salute you. 

Wait til someone posts the Rwandan model!

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Isn't RPM of limited use 48 hours out?  I thought someone said that..

It's been awful this winter. Like really bad 

[CarverWX]

[HoarfrostHubb]

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Thanks!  Looking good.  Harvey only comes in weekends for the big boys.

He also showed some city totals...they had ORH at 23"

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

He also showed some city totals...they had ORH at 23"

Big!  How are you feeling?

[moneypitmike]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, please.

That would be perfect.

Or suck from some folks vantage point.

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

He will eat one for 18"+ of snow

17.9" final

[dryslot]

Just now, dendrite said:

17.9" final

We may have to sneak someone in to confirm

[TalcottWx]

All the NW whiners will be happy to know midlevel banding is pretty damn far W

[rnaude241]

5 minutes ago, CarverWX said:

Right over my head. About 10 miles north of the Canal.

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Big!  How are you feeling?

After puking I feel a bit better.  Saltines and ginger ale (which is weird since I gave up soda 2+ years ago) Very achy.  Did not sleep at all last night.

This event will be interesting because in many areas there is zero snow on the ground...we have some from Friday still