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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Tuesday Morning: Snow beginning around 5:00 AM and becoming heavy by 9:00 AM.  Blizzard conditions for the rest of the morning with very heavy snow (2.0” – 3.5” per hour), Northeast winds gusting to 50 MPH inland and 60 MPH at the coast with near zero visibilities.  A major impact on all travel is expected by the end of the morning rush hour.  Moderate coastal flooding is also possible at noontime.

 

Tuesday Afternoon: Blizzard conditions are forecast to continue thru mid-afternoon with 2” – 3.5” per hour snowfall rates and winds gusting to 60 MPH at times.  Conditions should start to improve by late afternoon as the snow tapers down to lighter levels by the evening.   A major impact on all travel is expected with a deep snow cover possible on many roads.  The strong winds and light snow may continue into Tuesday night and early Wednesday causing a ground blizzard with blowing and drifting of the snow. 

 

Total snowfall of 14 – 24 inches is currently expected.  The Department of Emergency Services and Public Protection, Division of Emergency Management and Homeland Security will continue to closely monitor this approaching storm.  Another update will be sent out at 10:00 AM Monday morning

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Seems there's a bit of skill above mere noise to the notion, 'First it gets warm. Then, it gets cold: BOOM'

From the outside-of-box perspectives this all may have been eerily written on the wall back when it was 74 F that fateful Friday - if perhaps only symbolic in usefulness.  But I've seen this more times than not. 

Not always...of course not.  2012 stayed warm... But definitively from years like that, this one got warm with -30 C 850 air lurking in Canada; maybe there's something to all that.  interesting.

 

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Hoth

Hoth

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Tuesday Morning: Snow beginning around 5:00 AM and becoming heavy by 9:00 AM.  Blizzard conditions for the rest of the morning with very heavy snow (2.0” – 3.5” per hour), Northeast winds gusting to 50 MPH inland and 60 MPH at the coast with near zero visibilities.  A major impact on all travel is expected by the end of the morning rush hour.  Moderate coastal flooding is also possible at noontime.

 

Guess I know what time I'll be setting my alarm for.

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bobbutts

bobbutts

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4 minutes ago, Morch Madness said:

I think you have to sell any model that doesn't have widespread 1"+ QPF in SNE. This will not be short on moisture.

GFS has plenty of moisture, much of it just falls into the Atlantic instead of onshore. 

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wxsniss

wxsniss

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Posted

 

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

 

 

What about phone?

GFS takes 988 JUST inside the bm.  Shellacking for most.

Yeah Jer using my phone 4G/LTE it's excruciatingly slow... like 48 hours of a model come out before I can download a single frame...

Better to read than muck up the thread with delayed analysis

EE rule of old + tight EPS: I think there is increasing support to lean towards an elbow or ACK track... a 48 hour RGEM farther west I'm comfortable tossing for now, but I'd like to see this track solidify on the 0z suite

12-18 Boston metro feels safe, modified by nuances of CF placement. How could this surprise? Walt Drag would ask where is the fly in the ointment? Obviously my biggest fears are deeper digging of northern stream / earlier capture / best dynamics impacting Philly-NYC, all very possible. But I think there is also a reasonable shot at doing even better depending on timing of interaction... if you look at 12z Euro Friday solution, the timing is just right such that the low pauses and then tracks more ENE rather than NNE after it passes BM, we never dryslot and instead also get meat of deformation band as this moves away.

I'll wait for better internet... I feel like I'm about to lick an envelope and stamp here

 

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