March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[J Paul Gordon]

5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

RGEM a crusher thru 48 hr, well west of NAM.

How far west? Crusher where?

[78Blizzard]

Just now, J Paul Gordon said:

How far west? Crusher where?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017031218&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=265

[Gwhizkids]

11 minutes ago, ORH_greenhorn said:

Hey guys quick question, what do you think the odds are currently of being able to land at Logan Tues at 10:33 AM?? Trying to decide whether to stick with my reservation or change now, tempted to roll the dice and stick with it but my wife will kill me if we get cancelled... think conditions will be bad enough to prevent landing by then on Tues AM or does the blizzard criteria come later in the day? TIA

Remember, its not just a question of getting in - the airline does not want its equipment stranded there for several days.  So, even if conditions are conducive to a safe landing, if the subsequent flight going out on that equipment is iffy, they'll just cancel the inbound and stage the aircraft elsewhere til things get cleaned up.

[40/70 Benchmark]

RGEM would suck here, but out of its range

[40/70 Benchmark]

GFS is digging more, but still not as intense as euro

[ROOSTA]

RGEM taints up to 128 with a good front-end dump. Screaming 983Mb abreast of BOS then commences to stack.

TOSS!

 

[wxsniss]

Hey guys been away visiting in-laws bad timing + Amtrak junk WiFi FTL

For eastern MA folks, I share 40/70's nervousness about this phasing even earlier and ticking west ala RGEM, but 12z EPS and 18z NAM are definitely reassuring

18z GFS digging more through 30 hrs

[weathafella]

Just now, wxsniss said:

Hey guys been away visiting in-laws bad timing + Amtrak junk WiFi FTL

For eastern MA folks, I share 40/70's nervousness about this phasing even earlier and ticking west ala RGEM, but 12z EPS and 18z NAM are definitely reassuring

18z GFS digging more through 30 hrs

What about phone?

 

GFS takes 988 JUST inside the bm.  Shellacking for most.

[Morch Madness]

Jimmy hugging GFS

[dryslot]

Slightly better GFS run then the 12z run, At least its the right direction.

[40/70 Benchmark]

GFS same track, just a hair less progressive. 

[Greg]

15 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

RGEM a crusher thru 48 hr, well west of NAM.

Don't trust it because the upper levels are too strong of a flow for this to go up trough the Plymouth county or Cape Cod canal.  The model is generally a rip off of the NAM just a bit more amped.

[weathafella]

GFS will figure this out by the 6 hour lead.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'd go with a blend of the EURO and NAM

[danstorm]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

GFS will figure this out by the 6 hour lead.

Just posted that in the NYC thread - can't remember how many times it's done this 

[weathafella]

Ray that's the perfect H7 track-wish it were the euro...

[dryslot]

RGEM sucked here with the clipper friday, Had 2.6" snow and i may have had that many flakes.

[weathafella]

Meanwhile RGEM snow maps with plenty more to go are pretty strong.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, dryslot said:

RGEM sucked here with the clipper friday, Had 2.6" snow and i may have had that many flakes.

Yeah.  I had hopes for it this winter and it has been disappointing.   We toss

[40/70 Benchmark]

GFS and RGEM tossed

[ORH_greenhorn]

24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

DELAYs likely with cancelations not to far off... probably by mid afternoon; and it could deteriorate faster than that, too, because sometimes these sort of atmospheric jolt events come in like a wall and just got to 1/4 mi visibility with only an inch on the ground... but not getting better in this case.

[Edit: or, what Scott said - he's an aviation desker]

Thanks Tip and Scott, appreciate the quick replies and changed to Wednesday. Oh well, now we have to spend a whole additional day in New Orleans... the tragedy! Lol

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS and RGEM tossed

Well in fairness as you said RGEM at 48 hours isn't good.  I think it's wheelhouse is 24 in.  But RGEM western outlier and GFS eastern and we have goalposts that say any point between those 2 give a big snowstorm.   But some points give an epic one.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, ORH_greenhorn said:

Thanks Tip and Scott, appreciate the quick replies and changed to Wednesday. Oh well, now we have to spend a whole additional day in New Orleans... the tragedy! Lol

Def the smart move there.   Wednesday might have delays due to Tuesday, but at least you got a flight.   Get some beniets 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah.  I had hopes for it this winter and it has been disappointing.   We toss

It would have been a coup as it was the only model that had any acclamation here, So i said lets see how good it is, Ah, Nope.

[78Blizzard]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Meanwhile RGEM snow maps with plenty more to go are pretty strong.

They looked much better than the 48 hr GFS.

[Greg]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS and RGEM tossed

I'm still like the people in Taunton, I still lean more to an offshore solution than a an over Cape Cod solution.  Upper air pattern over us is strong.

[weathafella]

RGEM was great 2 years again but less so since.  Maybe the pattern 2 winters ago played to its strength.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

They looked much better than the 48 hr GFS.

Truthfully I thought RGEM extrapolated was euroesque.  See how that low is pointing east to stay offshore?  

[Chrisrotary12]

I'm a major fan of how the computer models are seemingly increasing QPF as we near the event.  Something to keep an eye on.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I'm a major fan of how the computer models are seemingly increasing QPF as we near the event.  Something to keep an eye on.

Definitely, Many times we go the other way closer in, That's a lot of juice flowing north out of the GOM.