March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weathafella said:

Ditto.  Hopefully 20 miles east next run There's still time.

I think its more likely to nudge west.

 

[weathafella]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think its more likely to nudge west.

 

Why?

[dryslot]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

I so wish we could lock some of these today.  Hard to believe it is still 36 hours to go

Bob mentioned CT Blizz hugging the toilet after last night...that was just me a few minutes ago.   Stomach bug ftl 

Fisher is still liking the ACK track

I have my feet up watching Nascar, With a bloody and a fatty.................

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Any updated analogs?   

Jan 2011

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weathafella said:

Why?

S Stream/phase trend...not a lot.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, dryslot said:

I have my feet up watching Nascar, With a bloody and a fatty.................

I've had zero food since last night and have just been drinking water and gatorade. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Ditto.  Hopefully 20 miles east next run There's still time.

Yeah it's likely got one more ticke east tonight and that should be final. Especially based on EPS 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I've had zero food since last night and have just been drinking water and gatorade. 

Saltines will help, That sucks, Stay hydrated.

[JC-CT]

Measuring is going to be a PITA

[78Blizzard]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

EPS mean looked to go right over ACK.

Some members are like the GFS though to the southeast...good cluster also going right over the Cape.

There's one member north of Cleveland, probably to be replaced after this, lol.

[backedgeapproaching]

14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What a crushing hit on the new NAM (current ParaNAM).

The thing just stalls and dumps cyclonic flow up north.  Probably a crazy backside upslope snowstorm with ratios, it'd be a lot bigger than this with that look.

You won't see that often... 16" at TAN and 16" at BTV for a forecast model.

 

12K nam has about 40 hours straight snow through most of NVT  and most of S/CVT west of the spine. Obviously some of that will pretty light at times, but still.

[weathafella]

Get well Dave-we need your perspective!

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

There's one member north of Cleveland, probably to be replaced after this, lol.

That's just a local lake min...no influence on this system. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Measuring is going to be a PITA

Always with the wind

[78Blizzard]

7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I so wish we could lock some of these today.  Hard to believe it is still 36 hours to go

Bob mentioned CT Blizz hugging the toilet after last night...that was just me a few minutes ago.   Stomach bug ftl 

Fisher is still liking the ACK track

I've been in agreement with him for 2 days now.

[moneypitmike]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right over me.

Where to/from?

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

S Stream/phase trend...not a lot.

I don't know-Euro seems locked in but this isn't the old Euro.  Better phasing should enable mid levels and surface to be more co-located to me.

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Measuring is going to be a PITA

Heck yeah if the winds verify.  Could be some great drifting 

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Where to/from?

From south of SNE to over metro Boston to off the ME coast.

[HoarfrostHubb]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jan 2011

Thanks Ray

If it was the one around Jan 14th it delivered 40" to Savoy and Pete was cutoff for a while iirc

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

From south of SNE to off the ME coast.

That works for me.......

thx.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

7 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Measuring is going to be a PITA

I'll be curious to see if those 60 knot winds will verify in EMA off the cape and islands.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Travel  is going to get downright dangerous on Tuesday.

[dryslot]

Lets see if the GFS starts to get a clue here, It already initialized with higher heights out west.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_greenhorn said:

Hey guys quick question, what do you think the odds are currently of being able to land at Logan Tues at 10:33 AM?? Trying to decide whether to stick with my reservation or change now, tempted to roll the dice and stick with it but my wife will kill me if we get cancelled... think conditions will be bad enough to prevent landing by then on Tues AM or does the blizzard criteria come later in the day? TIA

Chzances are you may not get in. It depends on your carrier...but flights may be cancelled by then.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, ORH_greenhorn said:

Hey guys quick question, what do you think the odds are currently of being able to land at Logan Tues at 10:33 AM?? Trying to decide whether to stick with my reservation or change now, tempted to roll the dice and stick with it but my wife will kill me if we get cancelled... think conditions will be bad enough to prevent landing by then on Tues AM or does the blizzard criteria come later in the day? TIA

DELAYs likely with cancelations not to far off... probably by mid afternoon; and it could deteriorate faster than that, too, because sometimes these sort of atmospheric jolt events come in like a wall and just got to 1/4 mi visibility with only an inch on the ground... but not getting better in this case.

[Edit: or, what Scott said - he's an aviation desker]

[78Blizzard]

RGEM a crusher thru 48 hr, well west of NAM.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Lets see if the GFS starts to get a clue here.

Huh, it's had more of a clue than the NAM - but I know what meant ..

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Huh, it's had more of a clue than the NAM - but I know what meant ..

Yeah, As as being the eastern outliar, See if it comes back to the pack, So far looks like that's going to happen.

[78Blizzard]

GFS digging more this time.