March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[weathafella]

Just now, Greg said:

I think the weather people in Taunton are not buying the NAM solution not quite yet.  Their discussion indicates the 500 mb flow doesn't support a big coastal hugger.  They believe a Nantucket to in-between Benchmark track is likely.

NAM actually is close to that track at 18z.

[eyewall]

BTV Discussion makes mention of Champlain Valley channeling on Wed so that local effect would help us. The NAM still has us just under 20 inches so I wouldn't say we are out of it but a less favorable track this go around.

[Greg]

Just now, weathafella said:

NAM actually is close to that track at 18z.

Oh, I know. Just indicating that even the Nam is now starting to see the slightly east shift, although for the Nam it is very stubborn to do so.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Hoth said:

The lift over CT at hr 45 is freaking insane.

It's Nemo rates 

[Hoth]

Each run continues to get wetter. Good thing to see as we get closer.

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, eyewall said:

BTV Discussion makes mention of Champlain Valley channeling on Wed so that local effect would help us. The NAM still has us just under 20 inches so I wouldn't say we are out of it but a less favorable track this go around.

This run was better than 12z for you, lol.

Nice south to north line from CT to VT of similar totals.

 

[tavwtby]

not sure if it's been posted...but warnings hoisted in the afternoon update for all of SNE... except blizzard watches for coastal CT... sticking with 12-18" region wide

[eyewall]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

This run was better than 12z for you, lol.

Alright I am tired. I was looking at the wrong damn thing LOL. Anyway CPV convergence put us over the top last time. That is something to consider this go around. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Greg said:

I think the weather people in Taunton are not buying the NAM solution not quite yet.  Their discussion indicates the 500 mb flow doesn't support a big coastal hugger.  They believe a Nantucket to in-between Benchmark track is likely.

Welcome back!!!

[78Blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Greg said:

Oh, I know. Just indicating that even the Nam is now starting to see the slightly east shift, although for the Nam it is very stubborn to do so.

At hr 51 on 18z, the last 4 runs have been within about 20 miles of each other.  I don't expect any serious deviations from that from this point on.

[backedgeapproaching]

6 minutes ago, eyewall said:

BTV Discussion makes mention of Champlain Valley channeling on Wed so that local effect would help us. The NAM still has us just under 20 inches so I wouldn't say we are out of it but a less favorable track this go around.

There is definitely some room to "make up some ground" on the backside on N/NW flow for you guys and the western slopes in VT and even for me down here in SVT.

You know how quickly that stuff can pile up, doesn't take much QPF.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Alright I am tired. I was looking at the wrong damn thing LOL. Anyway CPV convergence put us over the top last time. That is something to consider this go around. 

That affirms my guess at ORH jack from looking at H7 plot.

[dryslot]

Kuchie for fun

 

[powderfreak]

Just now, eyewall said:

Alright I am tired. I was looking at the wrong damn thing LOL. Anyway CPV convergence put us over the top last time. That is something to consider this go around. 

The Champlain Valley convergence will be textbook with these tracks and evolution.  You'll be ripping snow long after everyone else has stopped.
 

Nice 12-19" on the NAM for VT. 

[powderfreak]

Just now, dryslot said:

Kuchie for fun

 

Lyndon State College FTW.

Wonder when the last time Saint Johnsbury, VT jackpotted?  lol.

 

[Greg]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Welcome back!!!

Nice to be back Ray.!  I stayed off the board for quite some time and just read everybody's comments.

[bobbutts]

 

 

 

 

 

 

[powderfreak]

What a crushing hit on the new NAM (current ParaNAM).

The thing just stalls and dumps cyclonic flow up north.  Probably a crazy backside upslope snowstorm with ratios, it'd be a lot bigger than this with that look.

You won't see that often... 16" at TAN and 16" at BTV for a forecast model.

[J Paul Gordon]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Kuchie for fun

 

Yup 30+ for ORH. I (wanna) believe it.

Actually, back to a bit more realistic images from NWS, great event for the whole region. 

[Hoth]

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/ Take a look at the hemispheric water vapor. Direct feed out of the ITCZ into the Gulf.

[moneypitmike]

The NAM 4k snowfall map jackpots on my head.

Where does the EC track the 700?  I'm banking on that boost my totals.  

[mreaves]

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Kuchie for fun

 

Lol 3' from Island Pond through Pittsburg to Rangeley. If that were to verify, I would get my sled registered in NH & ME and take a trip. Not that it wouldn't be worthwhile after this anyway. 

[powderfreak]

EPS mean looked to go right over ACK.

Some members are like the GFS though to the southeast...good cluster also going right over the Cape.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Lol 3' from Island Pond through Pittsburg to Rangeley. If that were to verify, I would get my sled registered in NH & ME and take a trip. Not that it wouldn't be worthwhile after this anyway. 

Its still real decent riding up there, This is just icing on the cake.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

The NAM 4k snowfall map jackpots on my head.

Where does the EC track the 700?  I'm banking on that boost my totals.  

Right over me.

[weathafella]

Many of the great ones around here have the ORH jack.  I like seeing that.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I so wish we could lock some of these today.  Hard to believe it is still 36 hours to go

Bob mentioned CT Blizz hugging the toilet after last night...that was just me a few minutes ago.   Stomach bug ftl 

Fisher is still liking the ACK track

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right over me.

Ditto.  Hopefully 20 miles east next run There's still time.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Any updated analogs?   

[78Blizzard]

On this NAM run the 0° 850 line doesn't get past the canal.