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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Okay .. well, I'm on board officially now - ...sobering 00z Euro solution; notwithstanding, it ratchets up the proficiency of phasing to near or even exceeding 90%. That should really cause pause.

For one, it is hard to do that in the fluid dynamical fractal medium of the atmosphere; this is quite extraordinary what the Euro is doing.  It is quite extraordinary that it begins that interaction of stream dynamics roughly 72 hours out from 00z, and completes the fusion by 108.  That evolution is, in entirety, inside that model's exceptional scoring.

However, the key/critcial selling point for me is this below: 

Yesterday, I offered some attempt at objective limitations on this whole system evolution, based upon conventional wave-length arguments. Namely, the western ridge of the PNAP was slightly to moderately displaced too far west of the theoretically idealized model.  At that time/runs, the ridge was centered up around eastern Washington and Oregon, and only slightly bumped east as the N-stream cold fragments collapsed south toward the subsume scenario over the OV.  That effectively overly stretched the L/W; the idea of 'pulling' the surface reflection west had merit as a correction.

All of that contention was significantly/systemically appeased by this 00z Euro operational notion of bumping that western ridge axis E some several degrees of longitude. In fact, the dynamical interaction of streams and phasing near 80 W is not only more proficiently related to doing so (in my mind), but is also... climo acceptable when comparing the storm library ...let alone, experience and probably wave mechanics... The bottom line, I'm finding it difficult at this point to formulate arguments against this solution - and it's alarming that would be the case when the solution in question is one of these that challenges the upper bound limitation -type deal.

The water-downed version of this is, go grocery shopping.  Preemptively check on other essentials... from batteries to back-ups and so forth.. Makes sure these things are in order. I'd also check on the enfeebled/elderly/fragile interests, both alive and inanimate.  Not as a histrionic charge up in the fervor that's already in place - I would seriously do this stuff for personal and public safety.  Then, if something significantly less occurs, you walk away.. but the point is, you have a better chance of actually walking away in either circumstance. It can't hurt to be prepared.  Obviously, in this day and age, with the logics of common living being more evolved... and snow removal and everything else, in 3 or 4 days its passe; but one can still be caught off guard and feel foolish.

The other aspect is this system (and clearly, I'm siding with the Euro at this point) is that as is (imho) it is pretty far into the realm of capable of creating 'unexpected/intended emergent properties'?  What that means is, in any system in nature that is exceptionally organized and large, there are unintended properties that take place.  Case in point, I would not focus too much on those QPF/snow total products with that synoptic evolution in mind. 

I think it is equally ...or nearly so... plausible that the two 20 to 25" snow maxes that are centroid to SE NY and SE NH, could merge into one that is more like 30-50" if perhaps over a slightly smaller total area - but, circumvallate in a general region of 20+ ...similar to what takes place in other upper tier/bounded historical events. The reason I think the Euro is doing that,...is because despite this overall discussion, ...the panache of the evolution still has a soupcon of contention, however subtle, in the southern stream vs the core instability of the cold core chaser.  That (I suspect) is well within the realm of possible correction (if so) into a more consolidated output - so close therein is an emergent property ..etc. etc. Can't play games when the gun's actually loaded.

Having said all.. yes, there is still time to step things down and reign it all back in.  It's just as I said, if anything there is more corrective suggestion for this thing to become more over less at this point.  And moving a southern stream/THETA-E bloated wave into n-stream capture scenario (during diabatic flux climo) when the two source regions are rather exceptionally polar, then, stalling the result for 24 to 30 hours like ... using a tool that is ... the list goes on.  Hm. tsk. that could be bad -

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educate

educate

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About 5 years ago we were in the same spot where we were predicting a monumental storm areawide. And Jerry kept reminding us of the 5000 lb(I may have the weight wrong) elephant in the room, i.e. the antecedent air mass was putrid. Well he was correct and that came back to haunt us. I would argue that we have the complete opposite of that scenario now; this is historic cold today. Having the elephant in our corner this time is huge on a number of levels.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS is a hair more progressive.

I don't see this capturing before the GOM....if anything, it will trend later-

Yeah this isn't gonna be a 36 hour storm. It's a typical 12-18 hours but it can still produce very large totals because it's coming to the table fully loaded. 

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