March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

East vs West

North vs South

People be going jack crazy.

Not jack crazy...just snow crazy.  Any snow is good snow.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, he's trying to decide if he should pay $600 to come home....UK isn't worth it in n RI.

**** spend the 600 and go to Japan for Ocean Effect multiple feet. Lol at all this I only get 16 while Dendrite gets 22. In the mean time the  winds are sustained twice his.  So silly

[ineedsnow]

Euro time!

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Definite Boxing Day vibe.  Low went through the canal.   Big dump in NYC area and NJ and coastal areas near Boston including the metro area.  

I'm hoping the cf would be further west here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

**** spend the 600 and go to Japan for Ocean Effect multiple feet. Lol at all this I only get 16 while Dendrite gets 22. In the mean time the  winds are sustained twice his.  So silly

Its a great storm, but I wouldn't pay $600 to be in RI with an H7 track near ORH.

[78Blizzard]

I'm thinking the Euro holds serve with 0z, and goes over ACK.  That would split the difference between the Ukie and the GFS.

[JC-CT]

You'd have pay me to go to RI, period.

Unless it's the beach. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Not jack crazy...just snow crazy.  Any snow is good snow.

I am intensity driven myself. Who cares if x gets 3 more inches because of subsidence when you are talking 12 to 18. So silly 

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What are you talking about?

A more phased storm gets tugged nw, which increased dry slot possibility east.

Complete Phase 100 miles south of montauk. Temporary Stall, CCB, and kick it Northeast.

The longwave trough is hauling. There's not a big "bend back" wth this.

[OceanStWx]

7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

East vs West

North vs South

People be going jack crazy.

This storm was always set to disappoint after those runs of a few days ago. Nobody will be happy with 12+ now.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

You'd have pay me to go to RI, period.

Unless it's the beach. 

rimshot

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm hoping the cf would be further west here.

So what happened?   That was uber tucked going barely east of BOS yet Logan had the best of it for our area.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Unless you start to see other guidance headed that way, I would not be biting my fingernails.

Agree. It seems like with the energy better sampled now there may be an over reaction on both ends of the extremes on guidance imo. It probably will fall in between. Sounds like a cop out but Ive seen how spazzed out models can get on either end of the spectrum in these complex setups. 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

rimshot

I'm disappointed you missed my dryslot joke. That was a winner.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Complete Phase 100 miles south of montauk. Temporary Stall, CCB, and kick it Northeast.

The longwave trough is hauling. There's not a big "bend back" wth this.

A track over cc canal is worse for eastern areas than over ACK.

Pretty simple.

 

Steve, I don't understand what is silly about a weather enthusiast hoping for 20" over 12".

Whacking it over a closer ULL that provides flurries is much sillier.

We all have our druthers; give it a rest.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its a great storm, but I wouldn't pay $600 to be in RI with an H7 track near ORH.

Assuming it does and assuming that the storm it's not over by the time 7 H passes through.  Reality is its a KU . How it shakes out TBD. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

So what happened?   That was uber tucked going barely east of BOS yet Logan had the best of it for our area.

The cf was pinned to the coast....ageostrophic nuances.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

This storm was always set to disappoint after those runs of a few days ago. Nobody will be happy with 12+ now.

And i believe you said this a few days back but you knew that would be the case because the only place to go was down from those biblical runs.

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I'm disappointed you missed my dryslot joke. That was a winner.

Sorry.  Thread moving fast and I'm working.

[weathafella]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The cf was pinned to the coast....ageostrophic nuances.

Eerily similar setup here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Eerily similar setup here.

Which is why I'm concerned....if I don't get the mid levels, I rarely get the cf.

[BRSno]

12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Definite Boxing Day vibe.  Low went through the canal.   Big dump in NYC area and NJ and coastal areas near Boston including the metro area.  

Didn't we also, close to go-time, think BD was going to miss east? 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

16 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Definite Boxing Day vibe.  Low went through the canal.   Big dump in NYC area and NJ and coastal areas near Boston including the metro area.  

Boxing Day was brutal out here.  Nobody from Hartford to Brattleboro got more than 6". 

[sankaty]

5 minutes ago, BRSno said:

Didn't we also, close to go-time, think BD was going to miss east? 

Yup.  Huge model turnaround on Christmas morning.

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, BRSno said:

Didn't we also, close to go-time, think BD was going to miss east? 

BD?  What I remember was  that the NAM nailed it from 84 hours in.

[Whineminster]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

And i believe you said this a few days back but you knew that would be the case because the only place to go was down from those biblical runs.

Now for the important questions....Will the skimobile trails stay open and will they open in Hollis and Brookline

[Ginx snewx]

Guess I need to learn somethings cuz Bufkit GFS yields 20.3 at BED and 18.7 at ORH, heck of a way to run a dry slot.

[sankaty]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

BD?  What I remember was  that the NAM nailed it from 84 hours in.

The NCEP models showed a huge turnaround on Christmas morning (they had been showing it going OTS), but NOAA released a statement indicating that they were dismissing it due to some model error (can't remember the details).  Then the Euro showed the same thing for it's 12z run, and people started to believe.

[CT Rain]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Guess I need to learn somethings cuz Bufkit GFS yields 20.3 at BED and 18.7 at ORH, heck of a way to run a dry slot.

Except the GFS doesn't have a dry slot because it's so far east. Not sure what you're talking about? 

[snowgeek]

32 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You obviously have never been in western New England for any period of time for nor'easters lol.

The no worry zone is the same corridor it's been for days now.  TOL to LEW.  Feet up, light em up.

We worry. That's what we do out here lol. We have had reason to until Mother Nature can prove otherwise. Show me the money.