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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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18 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I'm fully expecting a good amount of taint here... the million dollars question is how much... do we still pull 6-10"... or is it like a 2-4" slop fest.

Should know more in about an hour 

Say what?

You get 8-12" from the WAA alone on the front end.

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

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6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Brett-no matter what happens you're getting nearly a foot from the front end.

I hope you're right.... I'll defer to those who have been around longer and know more of what they are talking about and have seen similar evolutions.

Ultimately... we get what we get... so I will sit back and enjoy 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Just now, dryslot said:

The folks out west have nothing to worry about.

You obviously have never been in western New England for any period of time for nor'easters lol.

The no worry zone is the same corridor it's been for days now.  TOL to LEW.  Feet up, light em up.

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dryslot

dryslot

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2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Either the GEFS ingested something for breakfast that will be coming up shortly or some peeps will be up in arms. There are no members hitting land.

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_10.png

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_11.png

Yeah, That's really far to the east, Would not have thought as we got closer we would see that swing east.

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SR Airglow

SR Airglow

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8 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

I'm trying to see if this storm is worth $500+ to fly home Early from The Netherlands and TAUNTON (not far from me) is talking 2"-10"???  

 

I NEED People to be Confident I'm getting 20" in Northern Rhode Island to spend that money to come home Monday vs. Tuesday.  And need to know soon.  

 

Am I likely getting 20" or Not?  

I'm not sure what $500 is worth to you, but for me, this storm, while nice, is not falling into the all timer category that would cause me to spend that much to experience it.

 

To answer your question, you're not likely getting 20", but anything is possible.

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dryslot

dryslot

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Just now, powderfreak said:

You obviously have never been in western New England for any period of time for nor'easters lol.

The no worry zone is the same corridor it's been for days now.  TOL to LEW.  Feet up, light em up.

The GFS would worry me, But seems to be on the far side of guidance right now.

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ROOSTA

ROOSTA

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3 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

I'm trying to see if this storm is worth $500+ to fly home Early from The Netherlands and TAUNTON (not far from me) is talking 2"-10"???  

 

I NEED People to be Confident I'm getting 20" in Northern Rhode Island to spend that money to come home Monday vs. Tuesday.  And need to know soon.  

 

Am I likely getting 20" or Not?  

Cursed RI jinx will be in full effect. Friggin sucker hole of subsidence. 
Really it's a crap shoot and probably boil-down to a now-cast. Just imagine a line from Ray to Ginx anywhere S and E guessing will be around a foot. 20" you ask...odds at 30-70 for NOT achieving.
You would set the record for a snow chase.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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13 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

I'm trying to see if this storm is worth $500+ to fly home Early from The Netherlands and TAUNTON (not far from me) is talking 2"-10"???  

 

I NEED People to be Confident I'm getting 20" in Northern Rhode Island to spend that money to come home Monday vs. Tuesday.  And need to know soon.  

 

Am I likely getting 20" or Not?  

How much for Philly?

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dryslot

dryslot

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

gfs and gefs is a liitle meh for west zones but they are sailing solo while everyone else is on the viking ship drinking heavy. 

Unless you start to see other guidance headed that way, I would not be biting my fingernails.

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jbenedet

jbenedet

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is trending towards epicosity for E NY/W NE, but reduced impact out this way.

No. It's still the SE quadrant of the forum. And less so as you progress NW within that zone. 

A more phased storm with EARLY west track doesn't result in a commensurate shift in ptype. It's non-linear. This quasi-phase solution we're seeing is probably the worst case for SE New England for ptype issues, and wintry impact.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

No. It's still the SE quadrant of the forum. And less so as you progress NW within that zone. 

A more phased storm with EARLY west track doesn't result in a commensurate shift in ptype. It's non-linear. This quasi-phase solution we're seeing is probably the worst case for SE New England for ptype issues, and wintry impact.

What are you talking about?

A more phased storm gets tugged nw, which increased dry slot possibility east.

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