March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I'm fully expecting a good amount of taint here... the million dollars question is how much... do we still pull 6-10"... or is it like a 2-4" slop fest.

Should know more in about an hour 

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

GEFS mean looks like some big spread and again east like op. 

Seems to be on the far east side of guidance

[JC-CT]

Hmm

[WinterWolf]

That Ukie is absolutely beautiful..holy crap what a Whooping that would be for many!!  

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I'm fully expecting a good amount of taint here... the million dollars question is how much... do we still pull 6-10"... or is it like a 2-4" slop fest.

Should know more in about an hour 

I think 2-4" is low balling by quite a bit. 

[SR Airglow]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Hmm

If I'm reading that correctly, is it showing the GGEM ensembles east of the op?

[CT Rain]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Seems to be on the far east side of guidance

Yeah - it's really far east. Most members are clustered pretty close to it outside of the benchmark.

That said the QPF queens will be happy to see it bumping things up back this way. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, SR Airglow said:

If I'm reading that correctly, is it showing the GGEM ensembles east of the op?

All of them

[SouthCoastMA]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I'm fully expecting a good amount of taint here... the million dollars question is how much... do we still pull 6-10"... or is it like a 2-4" slop fest.

Should know more in about an hour 

It will quite easy for you to pull off 6-10". Any chances for more than that seem precarious if the canal/pym/fmh tracks pan out. Hoping the euro is closer to the GFS in track. 

[rnaude241]

15 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

The options are narrowing, and many of them spell rain during some of the productive parts of the storm in the SE.  

The nice thing is if the track is tucked but slower, the wrap around with some luck would make up for some of it.  Not loving this location though for this one.  I'll be in the minority saying that if it really gets its act together though.

Ditto. I feel like the Euro is going to go west a tick which will pull down our numbers here. 

[dryslot]

I expect this upcoming Euro run to be slower then 0z and may have some more interaction from the GL low just based on what the Ukie did at 12z

[weathafella]

Taunton doesn't know of all the storms in the annals with similar track that gave hm 12+.   It's not like the mid level warmth goes at all west of the low center in any of the guidance.  

[weathafella]

Brett-no matter what happens you're getting nearly a foot from the front end.

[Epicnova]

Darn! I was hoping to get ~2' here, but it looks like that wont happen this time.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Taunton doesn't know of all the storms in the annals with similar track that gave hm 12+.   It's not like the mid level warmth goes at all west of the low center in any of the guidance.  

 

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Taunton doesn't know of all the storms in the annals with similar track that gave hm 12+.   It's not like the mid level warmth goes at all west of the low center in any of the guidance.  

Larger threat is dry slot...

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I expect this upcoming Euro run to be slower then 0z and may have some more interaction from the GL low just based on what the Ukie did at 12z

Jeff, when speaking of slower, are we thinking slower in that the storm is moving slower?  Or slower in that the storm is delayed a bit..but still moving at the same speed? 

[JC-CT]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Larger threat is dry slot...

True that guy is a nutjob.

[TheSnowman]

I'm trying to see if this storm is worth $500+ to fly home Early from The Netherlands and TAUNTON (not far from me) is talking 2"-10"???  

 

I NEED People to be Confident I'm getting 20" in Northern Rhode Island to spend that money to come home Monday vs. Tuesday.  And need to know soon.  

 

Am I likely getting 20" or Not?  

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Brett-no matter what happens you're getting nearly a foot from the front end.

That's how I see it.

[weathafella]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Larger threat is dry slot...

Bingo!   Slop is not the worry.  But everyone off the Cape is getting hours of very heavy snow.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Larger threat is dry slot...

It's sneaky too, because it doesn't show up well on say a 700 mb RH or 700-500 mb RH plot. But it does show up when you look at something like DGZ RH. 

[CoastalWx]

Other than the GFS guidance, most other guidance give us a warm conveyor belt dump and then slot for SNE.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

True that guy is a nutjob.

Well, to be quite honest, there are quite a few nutcases in here.  Brett is just conservative as are a few others.  

[JC-CT]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Well, to be quite honest, there are quite a few nutcases in here.  Brett is just conservative as are a few others.  

I was talking about "dry slot"

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

It's sneaky too, because it doesn't show up well on say a 700 mb RH or 700-500 mb RH plot. But it does show up when you look at something like DGZ RH. 

What would happen here is that everywhere outside of the cf LLC would dry slot east of ORH.

[dryslot]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Jeff, when speaking of slower, are we thinking slower in that the storm is moving slower?  Or slower in that the storm is delayed a bit..but still moving at the same speed? 

Well, Slower in its feeling the effects of the ULL trying to capture it at the surface tugging it back to the NW slowing its progression.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Other than the GFS guidance, most other guidance give us a warm conveyor belt dump and then slot for SNE.

Yea....I have a hard time buying more than 12-15" away from the cf n e MA on the UK/EURO.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just pin the hungover ukie on the bedroom ceiling and have the wife dip into the body lotion. 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What would happen here is that everywhere outside of the cf LLC would dry slot east of ORH.

Effective dry slot anyway. You may keep snowing, but you're not going like it when Dendrite is prancing through the chicken coop in +SN.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Other than the GFS guidance, most other guidance give us a warm conveyor belt dump and then slot for SNE.

Mixed intellect - no pun intended...

Not trying to be a dink but this seems pretty cookie cut clear:  if the mid levels close of closer to a NAM thinking, no problem... If they (particularly the 700) can hold it together and sneak even minutely south, bullshcit

least that's the way this look right now to me.  I just would be fascinating to see a better phase  - this is a disrupted version.