March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[ineedsnow]

Wonder if they go blizzard watches for the interior with the after package.. The winds look really good

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL. The Canadian guidance was sweet for you. 

Like to see it develop a bit more slowly on that run...but very good, yes.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The euro went over ACK.

Mid level low...H7.

[eyewall]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I guess you didn't see last nights Euro

That would definitely be nice. It is certainly riding a fantastic 700mb solution on that run. The question is how much weight should be placed on it in forecasts. Obviously yes I overreacted. I didn't sleep much last night having to be up at 4am for work with a 1 hour loss of sleep.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Anyone have a sensible weather analog regarding wind?

Boxing day??

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Mid level low...H7.

Oh...right

[sankaty]

13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Feb 2013?

Feb 2013 was close, but I think it was just short of 10" in BTV (can't find the PNS).  Obviously GON got crushed.  Any other contenders?

Seems like the kind of thing Will would know from memory.

[OceanStWx]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I thought the 00z Euro and 12z NAM's looked well NW of the Cape?  More like ORH area.

The 12z EURO will settle it...but now we've got 2 hours of thumb twiddling haha.

Yep, sorry I had 850 Euro overlaid on 700 GFS.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just got around to looking at this 12z oper. GFS.

Fascinating to see that succeed in slipping the southern component wave so far passed, yet, so near to the 'event horizon' of the Lakes diving wave so as to avoid capture like that.

I really almost suspect that the native high velocity endemic to the flow is partial in why that is evolving that way.  If the southern impulse was just that much slower in its circumnavigation of the n-stream it really looks like that would be more successful in slowing down fusing - or, fusing causing the slow down I should say.  As is, it just has too much escape velocity (to push that metaphor further). 

In any event, that's a warbled oblong failure to really get the job done, so...

Not complainin' at this time of year to be blunt. I almost don't want any of it (digression for a moment...).  It's fascinating to track this and its appreciated over the alternative, which at this time of year is more likely the 40's over mud.  But, part of my druthers would rather it just be obscenely warm, early. 

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, sankaty said:

Feb 2013 was close, but I think it was just short of 10" in BTV (can't find the PNS).  Obviously GON got crushed.  Any other contenders?

BTV didn't get 10" in Feb 2013... I had around a foot here on the East slope I believe but got almost all my snow with the northern energy and blocked orographic flow before the storm even really started down in SNE.

December 2003 saw 18"+ at BTV and Boston suburbs...that might be the largest widespread event.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Big hit.

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Difference I see with the GFS and GGEM is the GFS shoots that lead s/w far out ahead and doesn't fujiwara with the trailing s/w until its up in the GOM.  The GGEM does all this further S & W hence the further "inland" track.  Here are the 54h panels for each where you can see the differences.  By doing what the GFS is doing it nudges the baroclinic zone East a tad.

[weathafella]

22 minutes ago, BRSno said:

When did 12-18" become meh? That'd be 50% almost of what I've gotten all winter.

KBOS is at nearly 40 inches to date.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Difference I see with the GFS and GGEM is the GFS shoots that lead s/w far out ahead and doesn't fujiwara with the trailing s/w until its up in the GOM.  The GGEM does all this further S & W hence the further "inland" track.  Here are the 54h panels for each where you can see the differences.

Look at the lakes ULL. Much further west on the ggem

[sankaty]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

BTV didn't get 10" in Feb 2013... I had around a foot here on the East slope I believe but got almost all my snow with the northern energy and blocked orographic flow before the storm even really started down in SNE.

December 2003 saw 18"+ at BTV and Boston suburbs...that might be the largest widespread event.

December 2003 might be it, but I can't find a snowfall total for GON from that storm.

If the Euro verified, it would be extremely anomalous in that respect.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

After overnight guidance..... my second call would be 3-6" cape cod.... 6-10" BOS PVD SE to the canal... 10-15" west of that line with a jackpot zone of 18-20" somewhere in SW CT

[Cold Miser]

8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Big hit.

 

Where does the low track after that frame? From that image with it just off NJ coast then through ct and over Worceter? That would bring mixing and rain east, no?

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Look at the lakes ULL. Much further west on the ggem

The tilt of the ULL over the lakes is different too...GFS is more positive orientation while GGEM looks neutral to negative tilt almost.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

The tilt of the ULL over the lakes is different too...GFS is more positive orientation while GGEM looks neutral to negative tilt almost.

That's a better way of putting it

[CoastalWx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

The tilt of the ULL over the lakes is different too...GFS is more positive orientation while GGEM looks neutral to negative tilt almost.

Yes. Well done.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

After overnight guidance..... my second call would be 3-6" cape cod.... 6-10" BOS PVD SE to the canal... 10-15" west of that line with a jackpot zone of 18-20" somewhere in SW CT

Id of 10-15 se MA, 12-18" nw of Boston

[JC-CT]

Ukmet goes from snj to the canal I think

[SnowHole413]

Tucked, Slow moving bomb on ukmet

[JC-CT]

[dryslot]

12z Eukie

 

[JC-CT]

[dryslot]

Ukie is really slow, Does not get up off of CC until hr 60

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think I'm going to need the cf CJ.

[powderfreak]

That looks solid. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

May just adjust the 15-25" over east MA to 12-20" and call it a day.