March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[JC-CT]

  On 3/12/2017 at 3:59 PM, eyewall said:

Yeah to go from double digits to hoping to squeeze out 3-6" is tough lol.

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There's always the NAM

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/12/2017 at 3:59 PM, eyewall said:

Yeah to go from double digits to hoping to squeeze out 3-6" is tough lol.

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I wouldn't swan dive into the pink granite pits until the GEM and Euro come out. 

[JC-CT]

  On 3/12/2017 at 4:01 PM, CoastalWx said:

I wouldn't swan dive into the pink granite pits until the GEM and Euro come out. 

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But then it's fair game?

[powderfreak]

  On 3/12/2017 at 3:59 PM, eyewall said:

Yeah to go from double digits to hoping to squeeze out 3-6" is tough lol.

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That GFS run is actually better than the 6z run...

[CoastalWx]

Canadian is over FMH.

[powderfreak]

  On 3/12/2017 at 4:01 PM, CoastalWx said:

I wouldn't swan dive into the pink granite pits until the GEM and Euro come out. 

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He just needs to look at the 12z new NAM.

I mean, how hard can it be to get a solution that pleases everyone from BUF to BOS?  CAR to DCA?

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 3/12/2017 at 4:01 PM, JC-CT said:

But then it's fair game?

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[CoastalWx]

These model differences are LMAO.

[powderfreak]

  On 3/12/2017 at 4:03 PM, CoastalWx said:

Canadian is over FMH.

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Yeah move the GFS 75 miles north and its game on for everyone.

[dryslot]

  On 3/12/2017 at 4:03 PM, CoastalWx said:

Canadian is over FMH.

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Jimmy.......ftl

[powderfreak]

  On 3/12/2017 at 4:05 PM, CoastalWx said:

These model differences are LMAO.

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It seems like the GFS is on its own right now...but then watch the EURO come out east of that or something, lol.

[eyewall]

  On 3/12/2017 at 4:04 PM, powderfreak said:

He just needs to look at the 12z new NAM.

I mean, how hard can it be to get a solution that pleases everyone from BUF to BOS?  CAR to DCA?

 

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That would certainly be an ideal outcome. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/12/2017 at 4:06 PM, powderfreak said:

It seems like the GFS is on its own right now...but then watch the EURO come out east of that or something, lol.

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That would be a bad forecast this far in, and I trust that over the NAM and GGEM. But, as usual I wait until the euro.

[sankaty]

Last night's Euro showed 10" plus for both GON and BTV.  Can anyone remember a past storm that has actually done that?

[BRSno]

When did 12-18" become meh? That'd be 50% almost of what I've gotten all winter. 

[moneypitmike]

Damn--I was hoping for some agreement before heading back to Mass.  Lord know what I'll return to:  EC and 18 NAM will be waiting for me when I get in.

[OceanStWx]

  On 3/12/2017 at 4:06 PM, powderfreak said:

It seems like the GFS is on its own right now...but then watch the EURO come out east of that or something, lol.

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It's closer than first blush from the surface low. The GFS is faster, but for the most part mid level lows take a similar path over the Cape now.

[dryslot]

  On 3/12/2017 at 4:07 PM, eyewall said:

That would certainly be an ideal outcome. 

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I guess you didn't see last nights Euro

[40/70 Benchmark]

If the western solutions verify, I'll be pinning on CF CJ...the eastern ones, mid level magicians.

Just pray to not get caught in between.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 3/12/2017 at 4:07 PM, sankaty said:

Last night's Euro showed 10" plus for both GON and BTV.  Can anyone remember a past storm that has actually done that?

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Feb 2013?

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/12/2017 at 4:09 PM, OceanStWx said:

It's closer than first blush from the surface low. The GFS is faster, but for the most part mid level lows take a similar path over the Cape now.

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Thought the GFS was slower?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 3/12/2017 at 4:09 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If the western solutions verify, I'll be pinning on CF CJ...the eastern ones, mid level magicians.

Just pray to not get caught in between.

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You are in a great spot with any of the modeled solutions.  

[OceanStWx]

  On 3/12/2017 at 4:10 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thought the GFS was slower?

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Slower than 06z or 00z versions of the GFS, but still faster than the Euro.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/12/2017 at 4:11 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You are in a great spot with any of the modeled solutions.  

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On a macro scale, sure....but ask me how much I'll care if the deformation ends up over MPM, and the cf convergence is over Jerry, Jay and Allison.

[ineedsnow]

Canadian is a crusher

[powderfreak]

  On 3/12/2017 at 4:09 PM, OceanStWx said:

It's closer than first blush from the surface low. The GFS is faster, but for the most part mid level lows take a similar path over the Cape now.

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I thought the 00z Euro and 12z NAM's looked well NW of the Cape?  More like ORH area.

The 12z EURO will settle it...but now we've got 2 hours of thumb twiddling haha.

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/12/2017 at 4:14 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

On a macro scale, sure....but ask me how much I'll care if the deformation ends up over MPM, and the cf convergence is over Jerry, Jay and Allison.

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LOL. The Canadian guidance was sweet for you. 

[powderfreak]

  On 3/12/2017 at 4:14 PM, ineedsnow said:

Canadian is a crusher

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Spreads the love.

Goes over the Canal it looked like.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/12/2017 at 4:14 PM, powderfreak said:

I thought the 00z Euro and 12z NAM's looked well NW of the Cape?  More like ORH area.

The 12z EURO will settle it...but now we've got 2 hours of thumb twiddling haha.

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The euro went over ACK.

[JC-CT]

  On 3/12/2017 at 4:14 PM, powderfreak said:

I thought the 00z Euro and 12z NAM's looked well NW of the Cape?  More like ORH area.

The 12z EURO will settle it...but now we've got 2 hours of thumb twiddling haha.

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Poor uncle