March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[dendrite]

Not much change other than slower. Model madness.

[dryslot]

12z GFS looks a lot like the 06z run just slower

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL at GFS and NAM spatial differences.

GFS went wonky with that lead s/w that shot out ahead.

[donsutherland1]

15 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Do you have a link to the 84 hour RGEM?

[OceanStWx]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z GFS a little slower then the 06z run

Either I'm starting to get a hang of this sensitivity stuff, or I'm on a helluva lucky streak guessing trends.

[dryslot]

Basically held serve from 06z just slower by about 3-6 hrs

[Hoth]

Way east of the rest of guidance. Looked good early. Just couldn't follow through.

[dendrite]

Just now, dryslot said:

12z GFS looks a lot like the 06z run just slower

If the foreign suite comes in like the nam/rgem the gfs gets tossed right into Kevin's baby ruth filled bathtub.

[dryslot]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Either I'm starting to get a hang of this sensitivity stuff, or I'm on a helluva lucky streak guessing trends.

The latter

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

If the foreign suite comes in like the nam/rgem the gfs gets tossed right into Kevin's baby ruth filled bathtub.

Its been all over the place with this one, What poor handling, It went GGEM on us from a few days back

[JC-CT]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

Do you have a link to the 84 hour RGEM?

On meteocentre, go to the 48 hour image, right click and open the image in a new tab. Then manually edit the url where it shows 048 to make it up to 84 in 6 hour increments. 

[OceanStWx]

Man that H7 low is in a great position on the GFS. Rips it from the tip of LI to Eastport.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

GFS went wonky with that lead s/w that shot out ahead.

It had it at 6z too. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Do you have a link to the 84 hour RGEM?

Don...there's really no "link". You have to manually edit the image URLs to whatever time image you want. So load the 48hr of something, open the imge in a new tab, and then change the 48 to 84.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Man that H7 low is in a great position on the GFS. Rips it from the tip of LI to Eastport.

We pray. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Either I'm starting to get a hang of this sensitivity stuff, or I'm on a helluva lucky streak guessing trends.

Sultan of Sensitivity. 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

We pray. 

Stop me if you've heard this before, but the DGZ RH and omega progs have a ridiculous band from HFD to MHT to PWM.

[BRSno]

Like where I'm sitting atm, save for any major shifts west. GFS is tasty.

[eyewall]

It is definitely over up here. 

[OceanStWx]

Naked twister from WeHa to the chicken coop at 18z Tuesday.

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It had it at 6z too. 

Spatially though 06z had them closer together.  

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Man that H7 low is in a great position on the GFS. Rips it from the tip of LI to Eastport.

We take

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

There's how to not get 24-36".  

[CT Rain]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Naked twister from WeHa to the chicken coop at 18z Tuesday.

Yeah that GFS run just screams mid level magic. 

[eyewall]

BTV needs to cancel their watches soon.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Naked twister from WeHa to the chicken coop at 18z Tuesday.

Nice look at 18z. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

BTV needs to cancel their watches soon.

You sound depressed.  Perhaps a step back is in order?

[eyewall]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

You sound depressed.  Perhaps a step back is in order?

Yeah to go from double digits to hoping to squeeze out 3-6" is tough lol.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

There's how to not get 24-36".  

Shift that whole axis back 50-75 miles west.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

BTV needs to cancel their watches soon.

lol no.

They can go to an advisory from a watch...the GFS is solid advisory snow anyway. 

And its the furthest east model.