March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Meh!!

He's ridiculous. The NAM isn't coming west, it's always been west.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Gotta love the NAM... drives ya crazy.

NYC area went from 2"+ QPF to under 1". 

 

Looks less at LGA/PHL/BOS to me ...

This run is impressive but it's not even a top 10 FRH grid from what I've seen from the FOUS over the years.

I've seen 3" liq equiv in 24 consecutive hours of 04 or 05 wind at 30 + kts on that sucker a few times ..which is some three times more powerful than what this thing's numbers are on that particular technology, at this hour.

Again, echoing my sentiments from earlier, the phase isn't good enough to make the grade.  As is in this run, this is a midland coastal storm per our hardened NE standards and not much more - this run is impressive, but the totals and wind fields and temps make it middle of the road. 

Things could change, particularly if this thing corrects toward more proficient phasing - but this run hasn't shown that happening. 

We'll see what the globals do - 

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, JC-CT said:

He's ridiculous. The NAM isn't coming west, it's always been west.

Still thinking an elbow track until the big boys prove otherwise. The NAM can be punted

[JBinStoughton]

22 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

He's ridiculous. The NAM isn't coming west, it's always been west.

erroneously so, hopefully!

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

He's ridiculous. The NAM isn't coming west, it's always been west.

Up here that like 3 runs with it tracking along the coast

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, JC-CT said:

He's ridiculous. The NAM isn't coming west, it's always been west.

lol, kid has no clue. Nam actually sunk se a bit from the insane dryslot to PF runs. Anyway, you want the nam nw of you and gfs se with the goods. Anyone who doesnt see that should stop posting and learn more, the attention grabbing has gotten way overboard now. It was fun and cute for a while, now it's just being a troll. 

[dryslot]

For the queens

[ILoveWinter]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Gotta love the NAM... drives ya crazy.

NYC area went from 2"+ QPF to under 1". 

 

And the PARA gave NYC around 1.75, go figure.  Such a crazy model.

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Classic...this is phase two of the "lets freak out over some western outliers"...first was the GFS a couple days ago. 

Yeah even with every swing, we still all know how this goes down in the end.  At least the meat and potatoes.

 

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

the attention grabbing has gotten way overboard now. It was fun and cute for a while, now it's just being a troll. 

Amen

[dryslot]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Yeah even with every swing, we still all know how this goes down in the end.  At least the meat and potatoes.

You know the corridor.............................

[JC-CT]

Tip's put me in a downer mood, but he's right unfortunately. This is looking like a 1 in 2/3 year storm and not much more, by the last 10 years' standards of course.

[dryslot]

Its not looked like a blockbuster for days, Its a good one though.

[JBinStoughton]

23 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Amen

I think what's also attention grabbing is people who have to post pages of snowfall data, cutesy figures, poems, shopping lists, etc, as part of their signature so that everyone has to scroll through pages just to read a few posts. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, JBinStoughton said:

I think what's also attention grabbing is people who have to post pages of snowfall data, cutesy figures, poems, shopping lists, etc, as part of their signature so that everyone has to scroll through pages just to read a few posts. 

I will second that as well. But you can't see them on mobile.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, JBinStoughton said:

I think what's also attention grabbing is people who have to post pages of snowfall data, cutesy figures, poems, shopping lists, etc, as part of their signature so that everyone has to scroll through pages just to read a few posts. 

Use mobile. 

[dryslot]

And there is a setting to close them if its annoying

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its not looked like a blockbuster for days, Its a good one though.

Timing is so critical when the flow is this fast...still well within the timeframe for a positive trend and better phase however. I think the risk is tilted towards better phasing going forward based on what OceanStwx has reported for obs in the PAC NW.

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its not looked like a blockbuster for days, Its a good one though.

It's a nice mid March coastal.  Anyone expecting much more than that might want to step away a bit.    For coastal areas, the wind is going to be memorable I think 

[JBinStoughton]

22 minutes ago, dryslot said:

And there is a setting to close them if its annoying

Excellent.  Thx

[dryslot]

Just now, jbenedet said:

Timing is so critical when the flow is this fast...still well within the timeframe for a positive trend and better phase however. I think the risk is titled towards better phasing going forward based on what OceanStwx has reported for obs in the PAC NW.

The phasing is what could bump this one up a few notches, But it has been a few days since we have seen a full phaser

[Hoth]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its not looked like a blockbuster for days, Its a good one though.

After the winter they've had, this will feel like a blockbuster for Chicago.

[Damage In Tolland]

So now 12-24 isn't memorable.? Man are some dudes spoiled 

[weathafella]

Kind of March 93 appeal for our area

[moneypitmike]

Man, the NAM just says congrats to Jeff.  It's a Maine kind of winter (with the exception that it all melted the last 3 weeks).

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Man, the NAM just says congrats to Jeff.  It's a Maine kind of winter (with the exception that it all melted the last 3 weeks).

The NAM would probably be great from your area back through the Berks. That H7 low is way west. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So now 12-24 isn't memorable.? Man are some dudes spoiled 

LOL.  Bit of a range there.  12-18" isn't but 18" plus it is.  I'm not jumping on the 18"+ train yet.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

The NAM would probably be great from your area back through the Berks. That H7 low is way west. 

but but but....the qpf is not there. 

[Spanks45]

8 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Tip's put me in a downer mood, but he's right unfortunately. This is looking like a 1 in 2/3 year storm and not much more, by the last 10 years' standards of course.

We had a 12" storm in February, I think we got that number in like 8-10 hours. This one is looking like a 10-16" storm maybe 20" in localized spots in 10-14 hours. The wind is probably going to be impressive, but this storm will be nothing like the others from prior years. Yes disruptive on Tuesday, but most will be back to normal by mid to late Wednesday. I am excited, but would be nicer to see a stalled out 24 to 30 hour monster....

[CT Rain]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

but but but....the qpf is not there. 

lol - take the way over NW of that low.