March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Low confidence/persistence prediction: given how amped N Stream shortwaves have come in this year--in general--I suspect when this one comes ashore we see guidance correct to a more amplified and phased final solution. 

Partial would still work, A full phase would come with a lot more issues that are not white for some.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Partial would still work, A full phase would come with a lot more issues that are not white for some.

I like the trends on the gefs mean at h5 to elongate it, space out the streams. Then it catches up and closes off. Dont care the op weenie snow maps arent gangbusters, because that look works for many. 

[dryslot]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I like the trends on the gefs mean at h5 to elongate it, space out the streams. Then it catches up and closes off. Dont care the weenie snow maps arent gangbusters because that look works for many. 

Looking like the 12z GFS is going to west of the 06z run, Trough digging further south this run.

[CoastalWx]

This is definitely going to be west. 

[Epicnova]

As it stands now, how much snow are we gonna get here in Seekonk MA?

[weathafella]

14 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Partial would still work, A full phase would come with a lot more issues that are not white for some.

Yes-but a full phase would be amazing in its own right to see.

[dryslot]

Just now, weathafella said:

Yes-but a full phase would be amazing in its own right to see.

Oh i agree, The coastal folks would get thumped before they flip.

[weathafella]

GFS is dandy for many.

[SR Airglow]

GFS is faster to get good QPF in as well through 75. CT verifies a warning by 10 AM.

[CoastalWx]

Actually trhe srn s/w kicks out a bit. Might save a west track..or at least as west as it could have been.

[weathafella]

GFS @15z Tuesday 

 

39/72 and heavy snow into all of SNE.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Kinda what the gefs hints at too. Makes sense. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Actually trhe srn s/w kicks out a bit. Might save a west track..or at least as west as it could have been.

Getting a nudge but still looks like its going to get tugged NW

[SR Airglow]

Looks like it's going to go just east of the cape or clip the elbow. Everyone does well except the cape.

[weathafella]

21Z Tuesday it's just south of ACK.  Boston shut down.

[skierinvermont]

Been a while since I followed a big one. Where are you all getting model data faster than from the NCEP page?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

At h5 it was a euro look too with the kinks over sne while the closed low is in Michigan.

[weathafella]

Low center goes just east of ACK.  What a blizzard!

[SR Airglow]

Just now, skierinvermont said:

Been a while since I followed a big one. Where are you all getting model data faster than from the NCEP page?

instantweathermaps.com is the fastest place to get the GFS.

[dryslot]

Going to end up pretty similar to the 06z run.

[CoastalWx]

Basically a 12 hr thump.

[dryslot]

Crushed.

[CoastalWx]

That's a sh*tshow Tuesday.Nice.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Shut em down for CT, thats Jan 11. good stuff Hoth.

maybe a bit east of that but deff like the hook under LI.

[weathafella]

1.5 qpf all snow for a large swath of the area!

[MarkO]

where do you get the GFS so early?

[dryslot]

Just now, MarkO said:

where do you get the GFS so early?

Paid sites.

 

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Basically a 12 hr thump.

But like 18 inches in that thump-don't miss those rates my friend!

[Juliancolton]

1 minute ago, MarkO said:

where do you get the GFS so early?

Tropicaltidbits.com is as early as any paid subscription I've ever had for the NCEP models 

[dryslot]

Nice Stall in the GOM, There are going to be some hefty totals in Maine.