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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Per the BOX snow maps, they are not buying the EC NW Jack.

There's no reason to jump fully on one model run. It could easily leak back E a little. If I was forecasting for ALB, I would definitely worry that the Euro is a little too far W before I threw out big amounts. 

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
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I'll never put too much stock in the GFS after how badly it botched the blizz in '13. These systems seem to give it fits. It's been a windshield wiper with this one, left and right. The Euro had its allotted burp run, but otherwise has been pretty darn steady. I'm not sure why Wiz is so down on this in CT, especially where he is. To all outward shows, with those midlevels, this looks a lot like Jan '11 to me. While I wouldn't forecast it, and it certainty won't be widespread, someone in NW CT hills, Berks or southern NH could touch thirty in the jack. We've seen plenty of fast movers deliver surprise high end amounts, and this thing is gonna be juiced. It's riding right up over the Gulf Stream, modeling showed impressive PWATS wrapping into it, and HPC noted yesterday how anomalous the moisture feed was. Euro run definitely allayed my chief concerns. Not saying this can't jump east today or tomorrow, but the solution envelope superpositions seem to be collapsing into a more narrow expression.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's no reason to jump fully on one model run. It could easily leak back E a little. If I was forecasting for ALB, I would definitely worry that the Euro is a little too far W before I threw out big amounts. 

I have every expectation that it will.  Nothing in the models has been steady with this (perhaps the UK has? ), so why start now?

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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Posted
10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's no reason to jump fully on one model run. It could easily leak back E a little. If I was forecasting for ALB, I would definitely worry that the Euro is a little too far W before I threw out big amounts. 

Yeah same with BGM/BTV CWAs. 

BTV went even more robust with 12-18" for a lot of Vermont.  Maybe it happens but I don't know why there's this huge rush to always throw out big amounts.

When BTV's snow forecast is higher than neighboring GYX, in a coastal storm scenario, something seems off.

But maybe NOAA wants to bust high...i.e. prepare everyone for the possibility even if they know less is the more likely outcome.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah same with BGM/BTV CWAs. 

BTV went even more robust with 12-18" for a lot of Vermont.  Maybe it happens but I don't know why there's this huge rush to always throw out big amounts.

When BTV's snow forecast is higher than neighboring GYX, in a coastal storm scenario, something seems off.

But maybe NOAA wants to bust high...i.e. prepare everyone for the possibility even if they know less is the more likely outcome.

I really don't think anyone is consciously doing that. I think some are getting sucked into that false confidence because this signal has been there so long. Even if this trends east, I still feel half of my zones will fall into 6+ territory (50% watch confidence), likewise if it stays west most of my zones should hit 6. 

Will knows, BGM forecasting widespread warning amounts from a coastal is a dicey proposition. ITH downslopes from all the best coastal wind directions.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Winds look downright nuts Tuesday aftn. Definitely a concern I have on coast..especially near mix zone where snow is wet. 

That's a deep mixed layer forecast for Tuesday, almost up to 925 mb around here. Even the GFS being well east rips 40 knot gusts at PWM.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I really don't think anyone is consciously doing that. I think some are getting sucked into that false confidence because this signal has been there so long. Even if this trends east, I still feel half of my zones will fall into 6+ territory (50% watch confidence), likewise if it stays west most of my zones should hit 6. 

Will knows, BGM forecasting widespread warning amounts from a coastal is a dicey proposition. ITH downslopes from all the best coastal wind directions.

I think no matter what happens I'd feel good about your zones getting 6"+.  I guess the wildcards would be the northern tier of counties, but usually the cyclonic flow should take care of them (like Coos County) with orographic lift and residual moisture even if the meat of it misses SE.  It might fall at a different time as the rest of your CWA, but they'll get to 6"+ ha.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

I think no matter what happens I'd feel good about your zones getting 6"+.  I guess the wildcards would be the northern tier of counties, but usually the cyclonic flow should take care of them (like Coos County) with orographic lift and residual moisture even if the meat of it misses SE.  It might fall at a different time as the rest of your CWA, but they'll get to 6"+ ha.

John will definitely get his 6" in Pittsburg. 

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backedgeapproaching

backedgeapproaching

Posted
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22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah same with BGM/BTV CWAs. 

BTV went even more robust with 12-18" for a lot of Vermont.  Maybe it happens but I don't know why there's this huge rush to always throw out big amounts.

When BTV's snow forecast is higher than neighboring GYX, in a coastal storm scenario, something seems off.

But maybe NOAA wants to bust high...i.e. prepare everyone for the possibility even if they know less is the more likely outcome.

WPC tossed the 00z Euro in their disco from what I saw.

ALY was saying that even if the coastal would slide east a bit, they are banking  on ULL snows and terrain enhanced upslope to reach the totals they are posting in their zones.

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ROOSTA

ROOSTA

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Sure. Maybe 6 hrs of 1-2"/hr...then 12hrs of 3"/hr...followed by another 24 hrs of 1"/hr snows.

So your basic run of the mill 5' snowstorm. Love the fuzzy math (conservatives FTL) 1885 FTW.... j/k

OT
I was told yesterday I'd make a great Grandfather.   D'OH The true definition of crushed.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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4 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

WPC tossed the 00z Euro in their disco from what I saw.

ALY was saying that even if the coastal would slide east a bit, they are banking  on ULL snows and terrain enhanced upslope to reach the totals they are posting in their zones.

I'm not very impressed with the ULL snows. They don't look like the type that will save a 7" storm into verifying 12"+ even over the Catskills or some other area out west. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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So 12z raobs up in Canada are all showing higher heights than models forecast (06z GFS and 00z Euro). 

EPS sensitivity would suggest that means the Euro could have another slower and westward tick left in it at 12z. More likely slower than westward.

Looks like the GEFS would favor a slower tick too for the 12z GFS. Not so much left or right shift though.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I know Ray took a lot of crap last night about RH and 700 mb low tracks, but he does have a point. Parts of SNE are a 9-12 hour front ender (albeit hellacious front ender) and then mood flakes. 

Yeah, I've felt that way since yesterday. It's why I argued it wasn't an "all timer" for a storm for most of the region. You could almost argue it's like a giant WCB of moisture. But as you said...one hell of a thump. Those getting over 20 will probably be NW of that H7 track.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, I've felt that way since yesterday. It's why I argued it wasn't an "all timer" for a storm for most of the region. You could almost argue it's like a giant WCB of moisture. But as you said...one hell of a thump. Those getting over 20 will probably be NW of that H7 track.

I was just about to post, this is one of the storms that could break a commandment. "Thou shall not forecast more than 10" in a SWFE", which is essentially what this could be for much of the area if the Euro is right. All WAA driven. This could be widespread double digits from WAA alone.

But the Euro pivot is somewhere in the BTV CWA, that would be the jackpot.

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

WPC tossed the 00z Euro in their disco from what I saw.

ALY was saying that even if the coastal would slide east a bit, they are banking  on ULL snows and terrain enhanced upslope to reach the totals they are posting in their zones.

What was WPC's rationale for tossing the Euro?

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Honestly, I think 12-18" for places outside of jackpot areas is most reasonable right now. Really moving too fast to expect more.

There were widespread 16" in that blazing fast storm in Feb. This is going to be more juiced, and not as fast moving. 

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