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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I can't count how any times people have gone crazy saying 12"+ or 20"+ for things not to work out.  All people do here is look for highest QPF outputs and try to find something to justify getting higher amounts.  But if people compare this setup to past setups which have dropped widespread region wide 12"+ amounts...and I mean compare everything...there would be so many flags left and right.  

Anither flag is double barrel low configuration...no consolidated structure to this.  Too many double lows at all levels 

 Paul I love ya man but if you think I only look at QPF, oh man. I have been doing this since you were a  teens wet dream. I know what makes it tick and one thing. Ray is right you would be under a hellacious death band. Modeled qpf is the worst modeled parameter but did you also know it's the most underforecast parameter in sub 990 Noreasterss, ask your Professor about that.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

We'll see.  I've done a pretty damn solid job all winter at my forecasts for CT...low balled one event but lookin at everything as a whole has been a huge help with forecasting.  The big event in early February when I went 14-18" had little flags...this one has plenty.  Unless there are drastic changes tomorrow afternoon, when I make my first map tomorrow night it's 8-12" statewide 

Being a conservative forecaster is great until it's not.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
Just now, Ginx snewx said:

 Paul I love ya man but if you think I only look at QPF, oh man. I have been doing this since you were a  teens wet dream. I know what makes it tick and one thing. Ray is right you would be under a hellacious death band. Modeled qpf is the worst modeled parameter but did you also now it's the most underforecast parameter in sub 990 Noreasterss, ask your Professor about that.

I know you look at way more than that...the post wasn't directed at you personally.  But it's more of the fact that looking at all the recent events which gave us widespread 12"+...there were signals far in place better than what we have here.  The models are still disagreeing on exact track and just b/c the 0z euro comes in epic people assume that's correct...but if it came in less than stellar people would toss it and say wait until 12z tomorrow...and you know that's true.  

This is a rather intense and complex system and there will be a major zone of subsidence...just a question of where it sets up 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I know you look at way more than that...the post wasn't directed at you personally.  But it's more of the fact that looking at all the recent events which gave us widespread 12"+...there were signals far in place better than what we have here.  The models are still disagreeing on exact track and just b/c the 0z euro comes in epic people assume that's correct...but if it came in less than stellar people would toss it and say wait until 12z tomorrow...and you know that's true.  

This is a rather intense and complex system and there will be a major zone of subsidence...just a question of where it sets up 

To be honest, 12z Euro should have looked similar to this 0z run had it not shifted the SLP out over the convection to the east that it did not do at 0z, H5 argued for a better result at 12z.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

To be honest, 12z Euro should have looked similar to this 0z run had it not shifted the SLP out over the convection to the east that it did not do at 0z, H5 argued for a better result at 12z.

I could be wrong, I probably will be wrong but to call for 12"+ widespread here with the amount of flags...can't do it right now.  If things looks epic tomorrow then perhaps but o can't see going more than 8-12" with a strip of 12-18 somewhere in CT.

 

but bed time...confrrrncd restarts at 9

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I could be wrong, I probably will be wrong but to call for 12"+ widespread here with the amount of flags...can't do it right now.  If things looks epic tomorrow then perhaps but o can't see going more than 8-12" with a strip of 12-18 somewhere in CT.

 

but bed time...confrrrncd restarts at 9

Dont know how youd go 15-20" in the feb storm but 8-12" here. There are some concerns but I honestly wouldnt sweat those yet. This is 1-2' feet statewide at the moment so sit back and dont ocd every small detail when those will change. 

So much can happen still, we have been through this. I looked at my saved maps from Jan 15 and that was sooooo bad of a forecast I vomitted, and it wasnt the 4 beers I nursed myself with. 

Just pointing out how inside 2 days, it canget better or worse for anyone from CC to VT but For now, this is porn material.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pretty easy forecast now.

1-2' with local amounts 30-36"

 

Just needed that last set of runs to confirm

Yeah, no.  Get 30+ out and it won't be 1-2' widespread. Moving too fast. 20-24 in mesoscale deformation and with another area near CF.

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