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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

QPF does, but who cares.....QPF output blows.

I'd rather the 12z for Taunton, but its splitting hairs.

The H7 volt is closed under SNE and then opens up as it tracks right over us.  I think the dmpage has been significant by that time.

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SR Airglow

SR Airglow

Posted
Posted
Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It would be the diff. btwn 18" and like 14" imo, but its trivial....that is an awesome storm, regardless.

Indeed. I don't think anyone in SNE is going to be complaining after this one unless they're upset at not jackpotting even though they got double digits.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Drunk?

ecmwf_rh700_east_12.png

How does VV's look?...here and 850?  Also, at 18z this is very close to dry slot working in which could cut down potentials here.  Right now I could go like 8-12" state wide. Still questions to answer.  Just b/c the 0z euro came in better doesn't guarantee a monster hit.  If this run came in crap people would ve saying wait until 12z tomorrow to make a call 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I don't get some in here.

I give up , apparently some of us don't understand the concept of RH after a storm has passed. But lol we are now saying the difference between 14 and 18 is RH,  zero mention of lift prior or inflow or ocean enhanced salt nuclei in production.  It's a bomb JP fetishers can take over. Hoist the Blizzard warnings. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

How does VV's look?...here and 850?  Also, at 18z this is very close to dry slot working in which could cut down potentials here.  Right now I could go like 8-12" state wide. Still questions to answer.  Just b/c the 0z euro came in better doesn't guarantee a monster hit.  If this run came in crap people would ve saying wait until 12z tomorrow to make a call 

8-12" is too low there.

At least 12-18

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

I give up , apparently some of us don't understand the concept of RH after a storm has passed. But lol we are now saying the difference between 14 and 18 is RH,  zero mention of lift prior or inflow or ocean enhanced salt nuclei in production.  It's a bomb JP fetishers can take over. Hoist the Blizzard warnings. 

You are dense.

 

What else makes that difference?

And I think the rest is account for by receiving over 1' of snow.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
Just now, Ginx snewx said:

I give up , apparently some of us don't understand the concept of RH after a storm has passed. But lol we are now saying the difference between 14 and 18 is RH,  zero mention of lift prior or inflow or ocean enhanced salt nuclei in production.  It's a bomb JP fetishers can take over. Hoist the Blizzard warnings. 

Near 100% RH over the whole region, Dry......lol

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

I give up , apparently some of us don't understand the concept of RH after a storm has passed. But lol we are now saying the difference between 14 and 18 is RH,  zero mention of lift prior or inflow or ocean enhanced salt nuclei in production.  It's a bomb JP fetishers can take over. Hoist the Blizzard warnings. 

I can't count how any times people have gone crazy saying 12"+ or 20"+ for things not to work out.  All people do here is look for highest QPF outputs and try to find something to justify getting higher amounts.  But if people compare this setup to past setups which have dropped widespread region wide 12"+ amounts...and I mean compare everything...there would be so many flags left and right.  

Anither flag is double barrel low configuration...no consolidated structure to this.  Too many double lows at all levels 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You're right.....lets just deep throat qpf output.

 

Jesus, no one is complaining....the storm is great either way, but we are getting to the range to begin to discussing detail.

 QPF blows but everyone wants to know how much falls in there BY.............lol

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

8-12" is too low there.

At least 12-18

We'll see.  I've done a pretty damn solid job all winter at my forecasts for CT...low balled one event but lookin at everything as a whole has been a huge help with forecasting.  The big event in early February when I went 14-18" had little flags...this one has plenty.  Unless there are drastic changes tomorrow afternoon, when I make my first map tomorrow night it's 8-12" statewide 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyway, the run as a top 5 KU event...period.

Just a cautioning going off the deep end for eastern areas...over 1', regardless.

There is not much question that most on here see a foot, I just wouldn't go crazy forecasting 2' amounts

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