March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[JC-CT]

Just now, weathafella said:

Is uncle sober or crazy tonight?

Why mutually exclusive 

[weathafella]

GFS 850 low looks damned near perfectly positoined.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Thats actually a really good run at h5, then the ull goes underneath sne. Nice subtle details in there. Eff the surface lol. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

12"+ I think is definitely on the table.  Looking at 18z banding from the FSU site shows some rather impressive banding.  Even despite the rather quick speed of the system snow rates should approach 2"/hr...maybe 3? For a good period so that would make up for the speed.  

I also think this system could have two maxes...one from like just east of the Berks and another up in parts of E. MA back into NE CT along the coastal front.  That would mean perhaps subsidence screw zone in the middle 

So you upped it from 6-10 that you had before?

[bristolri_wx]

2 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

Depends where you live, as always. I want nothing to do with a Nam solution, which this looked more like till it took a hard right. 

I mean, long Island is horrible, I can't fault it's taste. 

I think there's a lot of people following this storm tired of SE NE getting a lot of the fun the last few seasons...  This GFS run does look a little fishy though.  Let's see where the Euro takes things.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I have a hard time buying hr 60 to 66 jump. it shud be tucked inside, east of AC, imo but yo es just a weenie. 

The less phasing has the nrn stream acting more like a kicker for the srn vort. The sfc low is following the path of the best dPVA. There's initially a decent dual upper jet structure with this and the sfc low starts rapidly deepening in the northern streak's RR quad and the southern streak's LF as you would classicly expect. Previous runs kept the northern streak back into New England giving the sfc low a more favorable divergent environment aloft, but I noticed that streak has been slipping NE with time and the sfc low has been chugging along east with it. 

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM is pretty amped...goes over the Cape...destroys a lot of the region.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM is pretty amped...goes over the Cape...destroys a lot of the region.

NICE! 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

GFS 850 low looks damned near perfectly positoined.

Agree.

[TalcottWx]

Just took a look at the 18z package of banding that features fronto and unstable depth..

People out west would be pleased to know it looks very healthy for them. We'll see how that changes when 0z is out. 

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So you upped it from 6-10 that you had before?

No...I haven't really made a forecast yet.  Tomorrow evening I will...too many questions right now but while if I had to make a forecast now I would probably go 8-12"...but I do see the potential for 12+" but there are just too many questions right now to commit to that and mention that publicly 

[Hoth]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM is pretty amped...goes over the Cape...destroys a lot of the region.

You ain't kidding. What a monster. 

[TalcottWx]

I'd say 20-25" is jackpot, max. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The less phasing has the nrn stream acting more like a kicker for the srn vort. The sfc low is following the path of the best dPVA. There's initially a decent dual upper jet structure with this and the sfc low starts rapidly deepening in the northern streak's RR quad and the southern streak's LF as you would classicly expect. Previous runs kept the northern streak back into New England giving the sfc low a more favorable divergent environment aloft, but I noticed that streak has been slipping NE with time and the sfc low has been chugging along east with it. 

I get your point, but that was a dramatic jump east. You basically get 2' from dc to philly in the ccb and it just shuts off from there as the h7 low tracks due NE ?

 

[NeonPeon]

5 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

I think there's a lot of people following this storm tired of SE NE getting a lot of the fun the last few seasons...  This GFS run does look a little fishy though.  Let's see where the Euro takes things.

Given it makes no difference, and I live in a place that doesn't do that well for snow, you'll excuse me for being unrepentantly self interested.  I think we rain to flip, and I'd take that pasting and wind in a heartbeat. I just don't want to miss out on too much of the fun, right on the edge. 

[weathafella]

CMC is an extreme crusher.  That's a 2 footer.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I hate to use the snow map for example but this is not a subsidence zone from philly ne due to occlusion, its pure shutoff and jump the ccb to e li and jimmy land. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I hate to use the snow map for example but this is not a subsidence zone from philly ne due to occlusion, its pure shutoff and jump the ccb to e li and jimmy land. 

Good point...just another worry for this...with 500 closing off early occlusion could occur 

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

CMC is an extreme crusher.  That's a 2 footer.

No chasing convection on that run. Too bad it's the Canadian.

[weathafella]

GFS does this for every coastal.   No exceptions.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I have these feeling in my weenie that guidance lost the full phase idea, which is fine, but some now are struggling with how partial phasing translates down to the surface. From the simple fact that we are having more variance in solutions than we did 3 days ago lol. Just a hunch here weenie tag me whatever, I'm in reverse Ice1972 mode and full Jimmy mode now.  That is, until the euro cuts it off at the base tonight.

[TalcottWx]

GFS looks good for CF from BOS to Ray

[TalcottWx]

A major snowstorm appears to be a lock for many. 

Big question is whether or not mid levels stack fast enough to make this thing historic. I'd say both scenarios still on table. Considering speed, highest totals in stacking scenario would be eastern SNE. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

GFS does this for every coastal.   No exceptions.

Yes it does.  Give it another run or two like Will said to clean up its act.  

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I get your point, but that was a dramatic jump east. You basically get 2' from dc to philly in the ccb and it just shuts off from there as the h7 low tracks due NE ?

 

The GFS is probably wrong in some major way, but at least the sfc low is following the major vortmax track and not some spurious convective blob over a coral reef.

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, sbos_wx said:

A major snowstorm appears to be a lock for many. 

Big question is whether or not mid levels stack fast enough to make this thing historic. I'd say both scenarios still on table. Considering speed, highest totals in stacking scenario would be eastern SNE. 

There will be other jackpot zones. Likely out of SNE, LI, or SW CT/S CT/RI

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I have these feeling in my weenie that guidance lost the full phase idea, which is fine, but some now are struggling with how partial phasing translates down to the surface. From the simple fact that we are having more variance in solutions than we did 3 days ago lol. Just a hunch here weenie tag me whatever, I'm in reverse Ice1972 mode and full Jimmy mode now.  That is, until the euro cuts it off at the base tonight.

The full phase hasn't looked good for a few runs now...but yeah, we're close enough now that it isn't coming back I wouldn't think.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I hate that I have to ride the cmc but it's what the gfs should be. 

Take the biggest solution for the region and go with it, such an easy hobby. Now I know how James does it, It is alot less stressful this way. Beer flowing, pounding the keyboard like Tippy.... berating models and humans in the process. 

[Hoth]

Is Crazy Unc out yet?

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I hate that I have to ride the cmc but it's what the gfs should be. 

Take the biggest solution for the region and go with it, such an easy hobby. Now I know how James does it, It is alot less stressful this way. Beer flowing, pounding the keyboard like Tippy.... berating models and humans in the process. 

Hey, it's worked for James on a number of occasions. Practically wills the storms to himself.