Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, weatherwiz said:

Do you think I'm off my rocker for my concerns across CT?  I feel like I'm the only one being conservative for here 

I think parsing soundings this early can drive you insane. I wouldn't worry about that stuff yet...keep to the bigger picture right now. Where's the mid-level center tracking? Are you in in the CCB or deformation? Stuff like that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think parsing soundings this early can drive you insane. I wouldn't worry about that stuff yet...keep to the bigger picture right now. Where's the mid-level center tracking? Are you in in the CCB or deformation? Stuff like that.

Thank males sense.  I think I do get too concerned with the smaller stuff too far out.  The mid-level look does look pretty solid and shows vigorous lift.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Thank males sense.  I think I do get too concerned with the smaller stuff too far out.  The mid-level look does look pretty solid and shows vigorous lift.  

Yeah I mean...the NAM is obviously different than others...it would dryslot all the way to Mt. Washington or even further...but other guidance isn't doing that. You could get screwed if it goes too far east...always a chance. But right now I'd feel ok for double digits there. I prob wouldn't be throwing out like 20" there...at least not at this point even if it's a possibility.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

That's a great spot for the GFS at this range though IMHO...you can see how it holds it together through like 54h-60h or so and then it just can't help itself and goes wild to the east. Like the guy who tries to hold together at the bar but can't quite swing it with the big drinkers and falls over. I'd bet that looks better another run or two from now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CT Valley Snowman

CT Valley Snowman

Posted
Posted

The jump ENE seemed a bit too dramatic like it was chasing convection but I'm no expert.  Also the the stream interaction looked better prior to the jump, looked like the N Steam was digging more and the overall precipitation field looked healthier. I Still don't like how the overall LP placement ended up a bit further east for like 3 runs in a row but certainly some positives nonetheless. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It's west it's east probably should wait the 4 minutes.  Lol 

It def looks more robust to me aloft...just toggle 60h vs 66h at 18z...it does it's usual crap with convection or whatever after that, but the larger scale features were more amped IMHO regardless of what mesoscale junk happened late in the game.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I mean...the NAM is obviously different than others...it would dryslot all the way to Mt. Washington or even further...but other guidance isn't doing that. You could get screwed if it goes too far east...always a chance. But right now I'd feel ok for double digits there. I prob wouldn't be throwing out like 20" there...at least not at this point even if it's a possibility.

12"+ I think is definitely on the table.  Looking at 18z banding from the FSU site shows some rather impressive banding.  Even despite the rather quick speed of the system snow rates should approach 2"/hr...maybe 3? For a good period so that would make up for the speed.  

I also think this system could have two maxes...one from like just east of the Berks and another up in parts of E. MA back into NE CT along the coastal front.  That would mean perhaps subsidence screw zone in the middle 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
NeonPeon

NeonPeon

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

The jump ENE seemed a bit too dramatic like it was chasing convection but I'm no expert.  Also the the dtream interaction looked better prior to the jump, looked like the N Steam was digging more and the overall precipitation field looked healthier. I Still don't like how the overall LP placement was a bit further east for like 3 runs in a row but certainly some positives nonetheless. 

Depends where you live, as always. I want nothing to do with a Nam solution, which this looked more like till it took a hard right. 

I mean, long Island is horrible, I can't fault it's taste. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...