March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

395?

Ginx lives on top of it

[78Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Was it that much? Looked a little south at 78 relative to 12z, and maybe a little east off the Cape. Didn't seem that significant to me.

It looked about 50 mi SE at the most.

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Stop it, you know this was you and some of your closest friends performing some voodoo to get this to slip east last night.

Maybe Eric can photoshop my body there.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ginx lives on top of it

That interstate only serves as a conduit for the pike and 95. Nobody lives there.

[powderfreak]

18z GFS snow map.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That interstate only serves as a conduit for the pike and 95. Nobody lives there.

It's rarely used by most folks unless you live near or on it

[JBinStoughton]

22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

18z GFS snow map.

Less than a foot for most...biiiiiig deal

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

18z GFS snow map.

BGM, ALB, and BTV day shifts unhappy.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'll eat one of Brian's chickens if the Euro doesn't tick back north again tonight.

Agreed.

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

BGM, ALB, and BTV day shifts unhappy.

Nice upslope event though at the end up here, haha.  That's going to be BTV's hope.  Won't help ALB/BGM.

Definitely a trend towards a scaled down version of the beast shown 24-48 hours ago.  

I am shocked the NWS offices haven't figured out the SOP with coastal systems yet though.  

 

[Stash]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

BGM, ALB, and BTV day shifts unhappy.

Can the night shifts quietly take the headlines down tonight, and pretend nobody will notice with the time change tomorrow?

[weathafella]

Blizzard watch for BOS-PYM.

[OceanStWx]

I mean we're actually in that middle range period where models tend to have a hiccup or two. I wouldn't be shocked if we did the 00z 12z shuffle for a couple runs, before things settle down towards a consensus again.

[powderfreak]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

I mean we're actually in that middle range period where models tend to have a hiccup or two. I wouldn't be shocked if we did the 00z 12z shuffle for a couple runs, before things settle down towards a consensus again.

We are also in the time frame though where they start to sample better data and make adjustments, no?

[78Blizzard]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

18z GFS snow map.

 

I thought QPF didn't matter at this point?

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

We are also in the time frame though where they start to sample better data and make adjustments, no?

That Canadian shortwave is still a bit of an unknown, and the Pac NW one just came onshore at 18z. So it's still "unsampled"

I was always thinking 00z tonight was the run that would be the big one.

[OceanStWx]

And everyone wants a snow map. I can't just issue a watch and say potential for 6+ anymore. I'm talking even mets are asking us for a map.

I say right in my AFD, higher confidence in 6+ but low confidence in hard and fast snow ranges at this point.

[Hoth]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We are also in the time frame though where they start to sample better data and make adjustments, no?

Haha, you are just praying this goes out to sea.

[moneypitmike]

12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

18z GFS snow map.

 

Noose-worthy.

All this for a MECS for some per that map.  On the plus side, that  would still give me a snow day and not much to shovel.

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Haha, you are just praying this goes out to sea.

Huh?  Im praying the NAM scores a Coup, why would I want this east?

 

[codfishsnowman]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

Noose-worthy.

All this for a MECS for some per that map.  On the plus side, that  would still give me a snow day and not much to shovel.

maybe it will get better but the changes for western zones are huge today in a horrific way for snow enthusiasts, that map even takes the "hellacious" wcb burst off the table

I will pass on 5-6 inches of arctic sand, rather see the whole thing head towards Bermuda

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

maybe it will get better but the changes for western zones are huge today in a horrific way for snow enthusiasts, that map even takes the "hellacious" wcb burst off the table

I will pass on 5-6 inches of arctic sand, rather see the whole thing head towards Bermuda

We can enjoy our cold brown ground some more.  It's still dropping a foot at Pit2 on that map.  Not enough to merit a trip though.

[dryslot]

Probably can fond some relief here, Westernersworry.com

[Typhoon Tip]

There were fights on Eastern and the early days of American re the data shadowing in the NE Pac..

Heavy handed posters with somehow ...some way insider knowledge would snipe people that talked about it, as being bs - it's not true that it matters all that much.

So which is it?

I figure it's worthy seeing as the NCEP and NWS offices routinely discuss the lack of actual physical soundings going into the grids as opposed to satellite derivatives.  Probably just a-hole Mets on the board hiding behind their red-tags -

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

maybe it will get better but the changes for western zones are huge today in a horrific way for snow enthusiasts, that map even takes the "hellacious" wcb burst off the table

I will pass on 5-6 inches of arctic sand, rather see the whole thing head towards Bermuda

I would only be concerned if an East trend continued through 2 more cycles.   This one is a little more of a beast then we have seen in a while  and we are just getting into best sampling.

[HoarfrostHubb]

23 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said:

Less than a foot for most...biiiiiig deal

That's over 6 hours

[weatherwiz]

The further east solutions could have some validity.  The NAO will be becoming more positive as the storm arrives which could open up the window for a more easterly track as opposed to westerly...unless this thing becomes really amped and tugs it further west.  Sort of surprised at OKX's snow map for southern CT at this stage 

[codfishsnowman]

I guess the envelope of solutions is no different than when a cutter goes through ord on one run and syr on another

[dryslot]

These runs are within the goal post other then the 12z Euro so not a bit surprised that we will see some shifting back and forth for a few more cycles

[CoastalWx]

24 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Blizzard watch for BOS-PYM.