March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[78Blizzard]

  On 3/11/2017 at 9:59 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Deeper, and further east...should crush e MA.

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Actually, qpf less than 12z run.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

model qpf printout ftl. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Even Codfish should not sweat that map, could easily be 12"+ in Springfield  w/ any subtle jogs. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/11/2017 at 10:02 PM, 78Blizzard said:

Actually, qpf less than 12z run.

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Who cares.

[OceanStWx]

The WAA thump alone is going to be impressive. F-gen pretty well maxed out in AWIPS.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Definitely arriving a bit slower. a bit of a jump in the LP center NE towards the convection at 72 almost has a bit of a duel low look for a bit. Overall a shade east despite what looked like better interaction between the streams.  Once again only about 12-15 hours of the real goods in SNE. Death Banding will make a big difference.  I would go 10-20 for most of SNE right now with Loli's to 24. If we get a megaband with 3-5 per hour I suppose someone could pull 30 but that's hard to forecast when the storm doesn't stall south of you. 

[78Blizzard]

  On 3/11/2017 at 10:04 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Who cares.

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It is what it is.

[CT Rain]

That is a sizable jump east on the GFS from 12z. Beware the eastern trend. Let's see if it's a burp or a trend. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/11/2017 at 10:04 PM, OceanStWx said:

The WAA thump alone is going to be impressive. F-gen pretty well maxed out in AWIPS.

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Where H 7 deform on EURO and GFS?

E MA?

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/11/2017 at 10:05 PM, 78Blizzard said:

It is what it is.

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That is a great mid level track. Qpf is the worst scoring metric. All I need to see are where the mid level lows are. Don't be fooled by QPF

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 3/11/2017 at 10:05 PM, 78Blizzard said:

It is what it is.

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Why are you looking at qpf out of curiosity?

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/11/2017 at 10:06 PM, CoastalWx said:

That is a great mid level track. Qpf is the worst scoring metric. All I need to see are where the mid level lows are. Don't be fooled by QPF

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That is a great run.

12-20".

[OceanStWx]

  On 3/11/2017 at 10:06 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Where H 7 deform on EURO and GFS?

E MA?

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GFS sending the H7 over the canal, Euro like ACK. So definitely a smoking somewhere between 495/395 and the coast.

[weathafella]

  On 3/11/2017 at 10:06 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Why are you looking at qpf out of curiosity?

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Lol...you act like you don't even look at it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/11/2017 at 10:08 PM, OceanStWx said:

GFS sending the H7 over the canal, Euro like ACK. So definitely a smoking somewhere between 495/395 and the coast.

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395?

[OceanStWx]

  On 3/11/2017 at 10:06 PM, CoastalWx said:

That is a great mid level track. Qpf is the worst scoring metric. All I need to see are where the mid level lows are. Don't be fooled by QPF

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Stop it, you know this was you and some of your closest friends performing some voodoo to get this to slip east last night.

[OceanStWx]

  On 3/11/2017 at 10:09 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

395?

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CT has people too.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 3/11/2017 at 10:06 PM, CT Rain said:

That is a sizable jump east on the GFS from 12z. Beware the eastern trend. Let's see if it's a burp or a trend. 

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It's funny tho -

I'd be more concerned if this was a needle thread ordeal ...where the storm track and narrowed corridors of impact mean bigger sensible differences.

This thing with that pig subsuming N-stream fragment like that ...it really strains the belief that this surface system can really escape that way. It seems the models may just be having trouble with finite scaled physics required to fuse those two things together.

huh

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/11/2017 at 10:10 PM, OceanStWx said:

CT has people too.

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Ok...not sure what that has to do with the fact that I didn't know where the that interstate was...

[dryslot]

[OceanStWx]

  On 3/11/2017 at 10:12 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ok...not sure what that has to do with the fact that I didn't know where the that interstate was...

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Not trying to give you a hard time. It's east of Kevin anyway.

[CT Rain]

The GFS is great... my concern is a 100 mile jump east after the euro went so Far East.

[codfishsnowman]

  On 3/11/2017 at 10:06 PM, CT Rain said:

That is a sizable jump east on the GFS from 12z. Beware the eastern trend. Let's see if it's a burp or a trend. 

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exactly...lot of east today with 2.5 days to go, I will keep my fingers crossed about better n stream interaction

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/11/2017 at 10:13 PM, OceanStWx said:

Not trying to give you a hard time. It's east of Kevin anyway.

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I see it now.

I honestly didn't know....no qualms about incorporating CT LOL

 

Right where we want it.

Nice.

[moneypitmike]

  On 3/11/2017 at 10:15 PM, CT Rain said:

The GFS is great... my concern is a 100 mile jump east after the euro went so Far East.

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slip, slip, slip sliding away.......

[Hoth]

  On 3/11/2017 at 10:15 PM, CT Rain said:

The GFS is great... my concern is a 100 mile jump east after the euro went so Far East.

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Was it that much? Looked a little south at 78 relative to 12z, and maybe a little east off the Cape. Didn't seem that significant to me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/11/2017 at 10:16 PM, moneypitmike said:

slip, slip, slip sliding away.......

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Glad we don't live there.

[weathafella]

I like my spot based on what we're seeing.  There shouldn't be huge changes at this point well inside 3 days by the 0Z runs.   But of course anything can happen.

[OceanStWx]

I'll eat one of Brian's chickens if the Euro doesn't tick back north again tonight.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 3/11/2017 at 10:09 PM, weathafella said:

Lol...you act like you don't even look at it.

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I honestly don't. What good does it do? Snowstorms have little to do with what a qpf map shows. The midlevel tracks show a SNE regionwide 12-24