March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

If this can not be posted, please delete...

It's the gefs, youre good. Anyway, we lay in bed with that. 

[JC-CT]

Her name is Stella

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The other thing to keep in mind, are model temps. This time of year, models usually bias too warm in wintry events with ongoing heavy precip. So you can easily trim a few off the modeled temps..especially on the cold side of the low.

 

I don't have numbers to confirm, but I figure the climatologically coldest water temps of the year are taking place right now which aids is keeping the coastal areas wintry.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The other thing to keep in mind, are model temps. This time of year, models usually bias too warm in wintry events with ongoing heavy precip. So you can easily trim a few off the modeled temps..especially on the cold side of the low.

..among the myriad of other details...right.

this whole thing can have a novel written  -

[ineedsnow]

Alb cwa in a watch now

[Sugarloaf1989]

At this early juncture, AccuWeather has 6-10" storm total, while WU has 13" just for Tuesday for my local.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Alb cwa in a watch now

Winter storm? I could see winter storm watches going up but blizzard watches are a bit too confident for my blood. I'd also prob feel less confident of winter storm watches in ALB. 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

 

I don't have numbers to confirm, but I figure the climatologically coldest water temps of the year are taking place right now which aids is keeping the coastal areas wintry.

It helps when H85 are so cold.   I was outside throwing the ball with the dog at the golf course.   Exposed to wind and drifting of yesterday and last nights snow such that some spots had like 8-10 inch drifts.   I packed it in after 35 minutes .  That's what's seeding this bad boy.

[78Blizzard]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The other thing to keep in mind, are model temps. This time of year, models usually bias too warm in wintry events with ongoing heavy precip. So you can easily trim a few off the modeled temps..especially on the cold side of the low.

That's something the NAM needs to learn, lol.  What a weird solution.  At 72 hr the surface low is over 100 mi E of the 12z position, yet despite that it now has the 0° 850 line up to the MA NH border and west to Springfield.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Her name is Stella

Artois?

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Winter storm? I could see winter storm watches going up but blizzard watches are a bit too confident for my blood. I'd also prob feel less confident of winter storm watches in ALB. 

 Ya winter storm watch for 7 or more

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

i like my location for this.... going to be hard to miss a big snow

[powderfreak]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Winter storm? I could see winter storm watches going up but blizzard watches are a bit too confident for my blood. I'd also prob feel less confident of winter storm watches in ALB. 

BTV put out CWA wide Winter Storm Watch along with ALB... lol.

BTV always the first to put up the Winter Storm Watches in New England...and usually the least likely to verify them, ha.

[OceanStWx]

My feeling at this point is simple. Even a hugger is going to front end thump 4-8" and something east of a hugger could be a large snow storm. So my confidence is 50% in 6+, but very low in an actual hard and fast snow total forecast. 

[dryslot]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

My feeling at this point is simple. Even a hugger is going to front end thump 4-8" and something east of a hugger could be a large snow storm. So my confidence is 50% in 6+, but very low in an actual hard and fast snow total forecast. 

I see you hoisted.

[powderfreak]

Seems a bit too gung-ho but what do I know.

You can tell even GYX is forecasting on their western zones what BTV is forecasting on their western zones.

[Morch Madness]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Winter storm? I could see winter storm watches going up but blizzard watches are a bit too confident for my blood. I'd also prob feel less confident of winter storm watches in ALB. 

 

BGM has watches up for 12-18" across their whole CWA - OKX, ALB and BGM all seem too bullish to me this far out.

[eyewall]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

BTV put out CWA wide Winter Storm Watch along with ALB... lol.

BTV always the first to put up the Winter Storm Watches in New England...and usually the least likely to verify them, ha.

Yeah it wouldn't take much for us to smoke cirrus or be down to a 1-3 non event.

[powderfreak]

Just now, Morch Madness said:

BGM has watches up for 12-18" across their whole CWA - OKX, ALB and BGM all seem too bullish to me this far out.

Add BTV to that.

You'd think the interior offices would've seen this movie play before. 

BOX and GYX should be going gung-ho 12-24"...not the other way around. 

[powderfreak]

Just now, eyewall said:

Yeah it wouldn't take much for us to smoke cirrus or be down to a 1-3 non event.

We're definitely getting some snow with the ULL.  But I'm surprised at how bullish the interior offices are going right now.

Its like no one has paid attention to the past 5 years or so of coastal storms, ha.

[Spanks45]

14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It's the gefs, youre good. Anyway, we lay in bed with that. 

I like the look for the storm next weekend too....

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Seems a bit too gung-ho but what do I know.

You can tell even GYX is forecasting on their western zones what BTV is forecasting on their western zones.

We have all learned, dont weigh the euro much when its riding solo. 

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We have all learned, dont weigh the euro much when its riding solo. 

Except in the tropics. Then you literally throw out everything else.

[dendrite]

I like how the NAM takes the H7 low right over SYR and rips the dryslot through all of MA and NH. 

[78Blizzard]

TWC has been showing a wide swath of 12-18" for just about everyone in NE except for PLY to the Cape.

[OceanStWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

I like how the NAM takes the H7 low right over SYR and rips the dryslot through all of MA and NH. 

la-la-la lock it in.

[powderfreak]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We have all learned, dont weigh the euro much when its riding solo. 

They state they went with a NAM/GFS blend with a nod to the 00z EURO (which showed like 1.4-1.8" QPF up here when all was done)....it just seems awfully ambitious to me with 3 days still to go.

[MarkO]

Like the NAM track. Can someone post a clown map?

[Siker]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Except in the tropics. Then you literally throw out everything else.

Pretty much tried and true until last year when it was ripping a Cat 5 Hermine through the Gulf of Mexico.

[Semper911]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Surprised those in Mass east of ORH even look at the models anymore lol....you all know how this plays out a week ahead of time.  

Pure crushage.  Just sit back, put your feet up and wait for it to start snowing.  

That IS kind of true. Sometimes we miss out, but I always know we will get in on the next one. There is a reason I moved here from Phx, AZ.

 

I do dread hearing about the decade-long snow drought like the 80's though, and I have genuine sorrow for areas like Vermont and upstate NY who have missed out a lot in recent years. A snow lover needs his snow.