March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Surprised those in Mass east of ORH even look at the models anymore lol....you all know how this plays out a week ahead of time.  

Pure crushage.  Just sit back, put your feet up and wait for it to start snowing.  

Just remember we are all here for you when it's 3am and you are up late at night drinking a bottle of scotch sifting through the new 03z SREFs for those amped ARW members. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Just remember we are all here for you when it's 3am and you are up late at night drinking a bottle of scotch sifting through the new 03z SREFs for those amped ARW members. 

I'll be drinking with him, except for a different reason.

[powderfreak]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Just remember we are all here for you when it's 3am and you are up late at night drinking a bottle of scotch sifting through the new 03z SREFs for those amped ARW members. 

Yeah I mean really, do you honestly ever have any doubt?  It's gotta be wild knowing you're golden like a week out.

[codfishsnowman]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Surprised those in Mass east of ORH even look at the models anymore lol....you all know how this plays out a week ahead of time.  

Pure crushage.  Just sit back, put your feet up and wait for it to start snowing.  

lol yup, it has become frightening...I guess I am glad Mother Nature threw me a small bone last month

I don't like how the mean went east, a few more little ticks and it is game over w of I-90

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, Paragon said:

The OP is run using standard conditions and each of the ensemble members have those standard conditions tweaked slightly to account for possible deviations or inaccuracies in the standard conditions.  The ensemble mean isn't a member, it's a smoothed average of all the ensemble members with tweaked conditions- thus the ensemble mean can easily be different from the OP.  It indicates where the OP may "go" in the future since relying on one set of conditions oftentimes isn't as accurate as using a spread of conditions (especially at long lead times when uncertainty is higher- that's why it's often said to use ensembles at 48 hours or longer and the OP within 48 hours.)

 

not to be a go-between but I don't believe he said "the mean was a member"

he was talking about the operational version - which you are correct in that it employs acceptable/scienced equations.  Where as the ensemble members are perturbed versions of those base equations - therefore, the means should carry some additional weight over the individual members - and sometimes...that mean does drag the operational toward it; other times the mean will collapse toward the operational. 

[Paragon]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

not to be a go-between but I don't believe he said "the mean was a member"

he was talking about the operational version - which you are correct in that it employs acceptable/scienced equations.  Where as the ensemble members are perturbed versions of those base equations - therefore, the means should carry some additional weight over the individual members - and sometimes...that mean does drag the operational toward it; other times the mean will collapse toward the operational. 

Thanks Tip, is it a random thing if the mean drags the OP or if the mean collapses towards the OP or is it a function of lead time which is more likely to happen?

 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

lol yup, it has become frightening...I guess I am glad Mother Nature threw me a small bone last month

I don't like how the mean went east, a few more little ticks and it is game over w of I-90

You guys in western MA are in it. You're acting like you're getting 2". I still like where you guys are...3 days out and it could still shift west.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I'll be drinking with him, except for a different reason.

These are a dime a dozen, I wouldn't worry about it.  Nothing you haven't seen before a dozen times in a few years.

[OceanStWx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

You guys in western MA are in it. You're acting like you're getting 2". I still like where you guys are...3 days out and it could still shift west.

I'd rather be in western MA than be where you are going to be Tuesday. 

[codfishsnowman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

You guys in western MA are in it. You're acting like you're getting 2". I still like where you guys are...3 days out and it could still shift west.

I am a little glad to see nws buffalo put wsw up

[weathafella]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

I'd rather be in western MA than be where you are going to be Tuesday. 

Once it's in to the hilt-twist it! 

[codfishsnowman]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I'd rather be in western MA than be where you are going to be Tuesday. 

I would rather be where you are

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'd rather be in western MA than be where you are going to be Tuesday. 

Not even an EF3 for me there.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You guys in western MA are in it. You're acting like you're getting 2". I still like where you guys are...3 days out and it could still shift west.

Funny you don't reassure Eyewall like that hahaha.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You guys in western MA are in it. You're acting like you're getting 2". I still like where you guys are...3 days out and it could still shift west.

Sure this could keep ticking E and congrats inside I-495 but at this point just as likely we have coastal weenies sweating as convection is firing off the Carolinas and meso-models start tracking this over CCC.

[codfishsnowman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Not even an EF3 for me there.

no that is my department

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Funny you don't reassure Eyewall like that hahaha.

Well we knew he was screwed a long time ago. 

[codfishsnowman]

I wonder if it will be this windy for the storm, crazy wind out there esp for dv

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well we knew he was screwed a long time ago. 

Yup never any doubt how these go.  You know.  It's amazingly consistent.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Jumping off the GW nyc weenies they go, one euro run. Never learn, latch onto euro jan 15 ftl now they latch onto the euro to approve their own wrist slitting. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Funny you don't reassure Eyewall like that hahaha.

Tougher for BTV. Besides, Eyewall already started the winter 17/18 thread so he checked out.

[dryslot]

9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'd rather be in western MA than be where you are going to be Tuesday. 

, Going to 0" there.

[OceanStWx]

Scooter is going to be outside of his hotel shoveling dust just to feel like he's a part of this.

[powderfreak]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Tougher for BTV. Besides, Eyewall already started the winter 17/18 thread so he checked out.

Yeah just joking around with you guys.  It's how it goes and with shocking consistency.

The playbook would be to keep ticking a little East from here on out.  Some meso-models will keep the deep interior entertained but TOL to LEW axis and east can put their feet up and light up a fatty at this point.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Thanks Tip, is it a random thing if the mean drags the OP or if the mean collapses towards the OP or is it a function of lead time which is more likely to happen?

 

Well ... given enough lead time, none of it matters.  D 10 (for example) is a veritable crappe shoot regardless; though I would argue that the mean sometimes has more success for fairly obvious teleconnector modal changes.. but that's a different lion -

anyway, sometimes with specific events the operational Euro and GFS will agree, and their respective means are off in their own worlds. The means tend to collapse the other way.

In this case, I just have doubts with this Euro run, despite my own protestations earlier this morning re the Euro at < D 5 - seems this run did the old "electron double-split" how dare you call me out routine on THAT one - haha.

Funny little invisible devils aside ...I'd like to see like everything else do what the Euro is doing before I buy it.  Beside ... the basic argument of 'continuity' is utterly violated on this run, too.  Logic almost dictates holding out there as suspect farther than it is trying to be an outlier -

[forkyfork]

there's always a weenie panic blip run

[dryslot]

Just now, forkyfork said:

there's always a weenie panic blip run

And the NYC forum will lead the parade

[snowgeek]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah just joking around with you guys.  It's how it goes and with shocking consistency.

The playbook would be to keep ticking a little East from here on out.  Some meso-models will keep the deep interior entertained but TOL to LEW axis and east can put their feet up and light up a fatty at this point.

That's why we have the NAM.  To lift us up at this time range so that we drop even harder when the new climo norm sets in.  18Z looks phasier and pretty tucky.  Blind squirrel finds it nut!!!

[Spanks45]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Jumping off the GW nyc weenies they go, one euro run. Never learn, latch onto euro jan 15 ftl now they latch onto the euro to approve their own wrist slitting. 

Things have been so consistent for days, I was almost ready for a run like this. I just didn't expect it from the EURO, it literally halfed the precip around here in one run. No jumping here yet, I will wait until tomorrow morning. I just don't want to see the GFS make a dramatic shift east....

[Paragon]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well ... given enough lead time, none of it matters.  D 10 (for example) is a veritable crappe shoot regardless; though I would argue that the mean sometimes has more success for fairly obvious teleconnector modal changes.. but that's a different lion -

anyway, sometimes with specific events the operational Euro and GFS will agree, and their respective means are off in their own worlds. The means tend to collapse the other way.

In this case, I just have doubts with this Euro run, despite my own protestations earlier this morning re the Euro at < D 5 - seems this run did the old "electron double-split" how dare you call me out routine on THAT one - haha.

Funny little invisible devils aside ...I'd like to see like everything else do what the Euro is doing before I buy it.  Beside ... the basic argument of 'continuity' is utterly violated on this run, too.  Logic almost dictates holding out there as suspect farther than it is trying to be an outlier -

Thanks Tip, by the way I think you were requesting to see the 12z GEFS.  Here they are

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2017031112&fh=90&xpos=0&ypos=49

I took the liberty to upload the four frames from 72hr to 90 hr and here they are: