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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I still think we get over 20 here

I like your enthusiasm just don't like what I see downstream in nyc area and farther south

I have never seen such a constant ramping up of qpf...I mean over 2 is a ton, I don't expect more than a 10-1 or even 9-1 ratio...

I just could see this being 8-10 of man snow with a lot of sleet/rain....I hope you are right bc it will be a long time before our area gets a shot at this kind of moisture with a good high in place to the north and after all the big misses and fringe jobs over the recent years it would be heartbreaking to see it slip away

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
Posted

Here's my take, might be somewhat different or maybe not ...

Low is deepening so rapidly that it may reach central pressures lower than most guidance around 970 mbs. Track likely to be across eastern LI and into se MA around Fall River back into Gulf of Maine just south of BOS. Anyone to east of that track could see damaging wind event (SW to W 50 G 80 mph) -- I think this will miss BOS by 20 miles or so south but may hit New Bediford and Brockton as well as the Cape -- and in general the wind field around this storm could intensify more than expected (but on the left side of the track that would mean NE 30-50 mph in exposed locations). 

As to snowfall amounts, I now expect these to range from 30-40 inches in parts of w CT and w/c MA to near zero in the Cape and islands, so perhaps 3-6 in around TAN, 6-10 PVD to BOS, 10-15 ne corner of CT to Lowell, about 20 in ORH, 20-25 BDL and Springfield MA, local 30-40 on east-facing slopes. Because of the massive interest in Tolland, I would say 19.9" there. Snowfalls in VT will range 20-40 inches and in NH 15 to 40, Maine likely to be about 20 most places locally a bit higher but low will be losing some energy after 00z. 

This thing has been cranking for past three hours, central pressure is dropping about 2 mb an hour. I've read a lot over the past hour about busts etc but I think the very strong dynamics will partially rescue the situation despite a lot of very mild air in lower-mid levels racing inland ahead of low. That situation will probably slam to a halt soon as the low is moving more northeast now than it was from Cape Lookout NC to Virginia Beach where it is now.

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted
BTV has gone with blizzard warnings in the CPV. I don't remember the last time for that. Point and click adds up to something ridiculous like 19"-27" and Wunderground spits out 23". Could be the biggest one for me since a Vday 2007



I was amazed to see blizzard warnings here. Most likely is 18 inches or so with an outside shot at making 20 which would be a top 10 event.

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk

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codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

Here's my take, might be somewhat different or maybe not ...

Low is deepening so rapidly that it may reach central pressures lower than most guidance around 970 mbs. Track likely to be across eastern LI and into se MA around Fall River back into Gulf of Maine just south of BOS. Anyone to east of that track could see damaging wind event (SW to W 50 G 80 mph) -- I think this will miss BOS by 20 miles or so south but may hit New Bediford and Brockton as well as the Cape -- and in general the wind field around this storm could intensify more than expected (but on the left side of the track that would mean NE 30-50 mph in exposed locations). 

As to snowfall amounts, I now expect these to range from 30-40 inches in parts of w CT and w/c MA to near zero in the Cape and islands, so perhaps 3-6 in around TAN, 6-10 PVD to BOS, 10-15 ne corner of CT to Lowell, about 20 in ORH, 20-25 BDL and Springfield MA, local 30-40 on east-facing slopes. Because of the massive interest in Tolland, I would say 19.9" there. Snowfalls in VT will range 20-40 inches and in NH 15 to 40, Maine likely to be about 20 most places locally a bit higher but low will be losing some energy after 00z. 

This thing has been cranking for past three hours, central pressure is dropping about 2 mb an hour. I've read a lot over the past hour about busts etc but I think the very strong dynamics will partially rescue the situation despite a lot of very mild air in lower-mid levels racing inland ahead of low. That situation will probably slam to a halt soon as the low is moving more northeast now than it was from Cape Lookout NC to Virginia Beach where it is now.

That is very Ray Bradbury-esque forecast, hope it is close to correct

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

It doesn't really bother me. What bothers me is when someone "lol"s at people who see a legitimate trend. Ruins the thread.

Here's your east trend.

gfs_asnow_neus_fh36_trend.gif

Then block me . I'd suggest you don't get bothered so easily. You'll lead a much happier life. 

Euro stayed east while Gfs corrected 

Euro looks good

Enjoy the storm 

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Then block me . I'd suggest you don't get bothered so easily. You'll lead a much happier life. 

Euro stayed east while Gfs corrected 

Euro looks good

Enjoy the storm 

You too kev. I don't agree with you but I don't need to block you. It should pound for a while regardless and will be nice to watch.

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