March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

YEah, I'm fine with that. 2 12 inchers on the season is nothing to sneer at. I just want this damn subsidence hole by Bridgeport to get out of here so I can see some flakes!

It's been snowing in North Haven and Hamden for the past half hour.

[codfishsnowman]

3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Codfish, you're gonna get crushed. I can't imagine being worried up there.

you don't think it is worrisome to see jfk at 34 with an east wind, I had hoped it be snowier upstream in mid atlantic

only place I feel good about is hrv, berks and cne/nne

Anyways I hope you are right and good luck to you!

[Hoth]

12 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

It's been snowing in North Haven and Hamden for the past half hour.

Lol, not where I am! Not a flake, and I've been looking! This freaking hole has got to go. Snowing all around me.

[wxsniss]

4z HRRR continues all snow in Boston through 3pm, mix line arrives 4pm. Consistent with past several runs.

[wxsniss]

0z Euro basically held its ground. No further tick west.

Tracks between somewhere between canal and PYM

[Hoth]

10 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

0z Euro basically held its ground. No further tick west.

Tracks between somewhere between canal and PYM

Looks even wetter than 12z. Holy moly that's a ton of qpf.

[Hoth]

Also, lol at the Kuchera map. The new ARW. Has 38" just inland from me, and widespread 40"+. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Euro was a great run for those holding their breaths. Crushes CT especially W CT

[weatherfreeeeak]

Euro snow maps?

[wxsniss]

4 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Looks even wetter than 12z. Holy moly that's a ton of qpf.

Almost region-wide 2.1-2.2

In eastern MA we are gonna need it, maximize what we can get out of the front-end thump, as well as overcome warmer temps at the surface:

 

[sankaty]

Wow.  The Euro is either going to get knocked down a peg or solidify its status as the king.  Virtually all snow here on the 0z run.

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, sankaty said:

Wow.  The Euro is either going to get knocked down a peg or solidify its status as the king.  Virtually all snow here on the 0z run.

Yeah its all snow. The cross section for HVN and MMK will show that. I just looked at the one from 12Z and MMK was all snow HVN was a hair above 0 for a short time, but this run was a tad cooler for CT so i bet even HVN will be all snow this run.

[Hoth]

Now we just have to hope it's right. I think latest HRRR had a similar track?

[sankaty]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

Yeah its all snow. The cross section for HVN and MMK will show that. I just looked at the one from 12Z and MMK was all snow HVN was a hair above 0 for a short time, but this run was a tad cooler for CT so i bet even HVN will be all snow this run.

I was sure the Euro would at least tic a bit warmer.  It's surprised me before, though.

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, sankaty said:

I was sure the Euro would at least tic a bit warmer.  It's surprised me before, though.

yeah thats what i was thinking too, especially looking at the 18hr panel and comparing it to the last run it was slightly north about 10 -15 miles on that panel. But infact its a tick colder.

[sankaty]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

yeah thats what i was thinking too, especially looking at the 18hr panel and comparing it to the last run it was slightly north about 10 -15 miles on that panel. But infact its a tick colder.

The eurowx algorithm shows 22.3 for Middletown, 23.5 for North Haven.  Crazy!

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, sankaty said:

The eurowx algorithm shows 22.3 for Middletown, 23.5 for North Haven.  Crazy!

I won't bother with the Kuchie, but it's like 38 for NH, and 37 for you. Stupid ratios.

[LaGrangewx]

6 minutes ago, sankaty said:

The eurowx algorithm shows 22.3 for Middletown, 23.5 for North Haven.  Crazy!

Can you post that map by any chance?

[wxsniss]

Euro + HRRR... we're gonna need that guidance to win in eastern MA

Fwiw, 6z SPC has low at 1002 eastern NC.... vs. 999 on RGEM / NAM / Euro

[sankaty]

3 minutes ago, LaGrangewx said:

Can you post that map by any chance?

I'm not sure I'm allowed to post it, but it shows 31.9 for Lagrangeville.  2.35 QPF.

[sankaty]

I'm a little concerned that it seems to indicate 16 inches in Wilminghton, DE, and 18 inches in Philly.  That seems really unlikely looking at the radar.

 

[sankaty]

13 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I won't bother with the Kuchie, but it's like 38 for NH, and 37 for you. Stupid ratios.

Ha!  Thanks.

[ajisai]

What do Euro soundings look like over BOS around the "switch" around 4-5pm?

[ajisai]

Harvey FWIW 

 

[The 4 Seasons]

Based on the latest guidance, updated the map. Was bored waiting for the snow so i did some creative things with it. 

I was going to go 20-24 in western CT but im not too sure those kind of numbers will be widespread and with a minimum of 20 everywhere in the range so i kept the locally 2 feet and highlighted the highest amounts will be in the western and Northwestern part of the state. 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Based on the latest guidance, updated the map. Was bored waiting for the snow so i did some creative things with it. 

I was going to go 20-24 in western CT but im not too sure those kind of numbers will be widespread and with a minimum of 20 everywhere in the range so i kept the locally 2 feet and highlighted the highest amounts will be in the western and Northwestern part of the state. 

Good map and call imo my friend.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Euro was a great run for those holding their breaths. Crushes CT especially W CT

Euro really has owned this one right from the get go. Saw it first and settled on this track 2-3 days out. 

[Damage In Tolland]

[codfishsnowman]

box took a step back at 12-18 and introduced mixing....I like Kelly's amounts a lot better for all this build up/ box was 16-22 last night in the blizzard warning text product

that is a sizeable step back...we will see

[The 4 Seasons]

5 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

box took a step back at 12-18 and introduced mixing....I like Kelly's amounts a lot better for all this build up/ box was 16-22 last night in the blizzard warning text product

that is a sizeable step back...we will see

OKX stepped back as well, good call 18-24 was ridiculous.