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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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DomNH

DomNH

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

Isnt that sounding from the 18z run?

Oh you're right Will posted the wrong one. The 00z is like +3C at 925 by 18z...lots of rain.

......nah jk it's right. That's sounding for 18z tomorrow not the 18z run.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

no good point...definitely right near 32.  snow ratios will blow and snow will be wet but its still snow

My biggest concern is precip rates not matching the models. We're relying on getting most of our snow in 6 hours even over the interior. I have to admit that I've never seen a system where the models (even conservative QPF models like the Euro) are spitting this much out in such a short period, so I am putting some weight into it. But I still would lean conservative.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

My biggest concern is precip rates not matching the models. We're relying on getting most of our snow in 6 hours even over the interior. I have to admit that I've never seen a system where the models (even conservative QPF models like the Euro) are spitting this much out in such a short period, so I am putting some weight into it. But I still would lean conservative.

Yeah it isn't like it's just the NAM spitting out some hefty QPF values, it's pretty much all models.  It certainly is tough to buy into it but at the same time it isn't.  I mean models are showing an 80...90...even 100+ 850mb LLJ and 90+ 700mb MLJ streak feeding moisture into this thing...plus it has ties to the Pacific as well.  The moisture is certainly there.  But you make a great point about how so many are relying on most of the snow in such a short amount of time...this is probably my main reason I can't go like widespread 12-18''+.  I've been asking myself, "will we see widespread snowfall rates of 3-4'' per hour for 4-6 consecutive hours?  Very, very difficult to do.  

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TheSnowman

TheSnowman

Posted
Posted
Just now, weatherwiz said:

I would honestly go anywhere just east of the Berks...that could be an underrated spot for prolific amounts.  The degree of upslope should actually be quite phenomenal and if the banding sets up over that area...that's where some 2' totals could happen if they were too happen

Like specifically?  

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SR Airglow

SR Airglow

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

anywhere between North Adams and Pittsfield...?  Pittsfield usually seems to go quite well in these setups if I recall correctly.  

PSF is usually a snow hole IIRC? No doubt they'll do well but if you're chasing I think you can do better. Savoy is a good idea.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, SR Airglow said:

PSF is usually a snow hole IIRC? No doubt they'll do well but if you're chasing I think you can do better. Savoy is a good idea.

yeah Savoy actually looks solid.  Wasn't sure where they were located but just checked.  Didn't PSF nail out like 40'' not too long ago with one of these?

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

anywhere between North Adams and Pittsfield...?  Pittsfield usually seems to go quite well in these setups if I recall correctly.  

PSF is not a snow place for this Savoy or go visit Pete. GGEM is a holla crush job, even warm it still gets most everyone except the Cape to a foot

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