March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[Hoth]

No snake pits in DFW.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Lol... the GFS is basically a rainstorm for eastern ma RI and Eastern Conn.

im out 

[Morch Madness]

Damn lol. All of E MA shut out. Euro vs the world right now

[New England Storm]

Im out peeps, see you next storm or something. 

[weatherwiz]

best banding will probably be back across eastern NY...into western MA and NW CT...may not even really get all the way down to SW CT 

[BRSno]

Pedestrian storm out here overall, pretty nice on QPF though. Will be a great few hours but that sounds like about it. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

6 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said:

I'm anticipating receiving a record breaking quantity of yellow pixels tomorrow. Maybe even some orange ones.

For every orange pixel, a chicken dies

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, BRSno said:

GFS is more rain than anything else 

In Boston? Not sure what you are looking at but it's mostly snow there...it flips around 5pm.

[Hoth]

Lol, poor Corey. Flying home for this. Ouch.

[WeatherWilly]

wow I expected it to be bad but that's ridiculous.........................could have had school for sure

[SR Airglow]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

In Boston? Not sure what you are looking at but it's mostly snow there...it flips around 5pm.

I'm seeing rain out past 128 by 2 PM?

[SR Airglow]

Just now, Hoth said:

Lol, poor Corey. Flying home for this. Ouch.

He should get in his car and head for the Berks or Catskills, otherwise we're going to be reading some serious meltdowns tomorrow.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, SR Airglow said:

I'm seeing rain out past 128 by 2 PM?

Are you looking at soundings or trusting the precip algorithm?

 

I cannot imagine this is a rain sounding:

 

 

[bboughton]

1 minute ago, SR Airglow said:

I'm seeing rain out past 128 by 2 PM?

850 temps are pretty cold still but sfc temps are high. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

In Boston? Not sure what you are looking at but it's mostly snow there...it flips around 5pm.

Seriously. It's funny seeing coastal weenies complain about a little taint.

[weatherwiz]

soundings are def snow for Boston up until around 5 

[SR Airglow]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Are you looking at soundings or trusting the precip algorithm?

 

I cannot imagine this is a rain sounding:

 

 

That's a good look although doesn't match up with what I'm seeing at the surface - we happily take that though. I definitely overreacted and apologize for that.

[Sn0waddict]

At hour 18 the GFS precip map shows rain all the way to pratcially hartord, yet the 850 line is barely touching New London. Is there some sort of sneaky layer in there or something?

 

EDIT: Guess it could be the surface? But i'll take my chances with that given the dynamics. Wish other models showed 850's similar to this though.

[HoarfrostHubb]

So they get 10-12" of man snow then sleet and a little rain.  Sounds terrible

[DomNH]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Are you looking at soundings or trusting the precip algorithm?

 

I cannot imagine this is a rain sounding:

lol at the p-type algorithm.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, bboughton said:

850 temps are pretty cold still but sfc temps are high. 

precip rates will keep it snow even if sfc is like  35 

[DomNH]

I think MPM to Dave jackpots but man I love where I am for this. Doesn't happen often. 

[dryslot]

For the queens

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

At hour 18 the GFS precip map shows rain all the way to pratcially hartord, yet the 850 line is barely touching New London. Is there some sort of sneaky layer in there or something?

don't look at the precip maps.  PRobably has it as rain b/c sfc temp is like 33 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

precip rates will keep it snow even if sfc is like  35 

The sfc won't be 35 with those precip rates anyway.

 

BOS will get screwed if they don't get the precip rates that all guidance is showing...but if they get those precip rates, they will get double digits before any taint.

[weatherMA]

3 minutes ago, bboughton said:

850 temps are pretty cold still but sfc temps are high. 

I wouldn't care much about GFS surface temps when the dynamics are there to snow heavy with .2" QPF/ hour. 

[ROOSTA]

20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Look closely at these SR models and notice the elongation east as it approaches LI, indicates to me that the redeveloping centers are developing east as convection fires North as we saw in Jan 11 and Jan 15. Watch the HRRR and RAP closely 

I've been looking at that for the last few cycles.
What is lacking is analysis of previous model runs in comparison to what is actually happening. One poster comes to mind...
Model smodel at this point just look at the obs., radar. Break out the Bufkit, watch and learn in realtime. 

[8611Blizz]

Will just saved me from driving to the tobin.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

In Boston? Not sure what you are looking at but it's mostly snow there...it flips around 5pm.

People are going bat$hit tonight. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The sfc won't be 35 with those precip rates anyway.

 

BOS will get screwed if they don't get the precip rates that all guidance is showing...but if they get those precip rates, they will get double digits before any taint.

no good point...definitely right near 32.  snow ratios will blow and snow will be wet but its still snow