March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[SouthCoastMA]

Tossing the RGEM, riding the 3k and 12k Para NAMs..obviously.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Changes me over by 10am.even the warmest NAMs don't do that. 

RGEM has definitely been the warmest model almost every cycle...and it's been leading the charge as most guidance has been following it. We'll see if it's right these two or three most recent times.

[WeatherWilly]

Two local stations are reducing their snow forecasts lower...............

[SR Airglow]

3 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Yeah definitely a tick warmer in eastern MA

I'm smelling a bust for us unfortunately - don't like that these ticks keep going as we're getting up to gametime. One more tick and we're screwed, as it is, I think we're relying on dynamics to save us during the good stuff. Being east hurts here as precip is coming in west to east while changover is basically south to north(A bit of a generalization, but you get the idea). Oh well - win some, lose some. Just hoping for an hour or two of chaos at this point and then hopefully if it rains, it rains enough to wash away whatever falls on my car so I don't have to clean it off tomorrow night.

[RI Rob]

Seems like everyone in Boston are running out of model's to toss. 

I'll go with 8-12 in Boston downtown.

[MarkO]

GFS has been the most east, will be interesting to see how far west it comes. 

Noticed precip entering SW CT. Seems a little earlier than thought. Prolly virga, but first flakes in NE should commence soon.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, ariof said:

No matter the ptype this kind of qpf put a bit more of a dent in the ongoing drought. Should be good for the Quabbin.

Stop stealing our water

[OceanStWx]

Well 00z NAM is only a -6 U wind anomaly and +5 V wind. That's a real QPF signal.

[BRSno]

SO much rain on the RGEM -_-

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

It's pretty funny watching local mets try to walk back the huge numbers down this way.

Kind of a bit late for that now. 

All schools in this area closed... going to be another poor knee jerk closure... prob could have it tomorrow 

[wxsniss]

4 minutes ago, SR Airglow said:

I'm smelling a bust for us unfortunately - don't like that these ticks keep going as we're getting up to gametime. One more tick and we're screwed, as it is, I think we're relying on dynamics to save us during the good stuff. Being east hurts here as precip is coming in west to east while changover is basically south to north(A bit of a generalization, but you get the idea). Oh well - win some, lose some. Just hoping for an hour or two of chaos at this point and then hopefully if it rains, it rains enough to wash away whatever falls on my car so I don't have to clean it off tomorrow night.

Yeah was gonna say, we are running out of models to cling to... Dr. Yes tonight is it

Should have trusted my instincts on this, and lots of co-workers counted on my to make a call. Hard not to get swept away by pretty much every TV / NWS forecast. Not over yet, let's hope RGEM vomits on this one though it sure is steady and consistent

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, BRSno said:

SO much rain on the RGEM -_-

Who cares-

[snowman21]

3 minutes ago, MarkO said:

GFS has been the most east, will be interesting to see how far west it comes. 

Noticed precip entering SW CT. Seems a little earlier than thought. Prolly virga, but first flakes in NE should commence soon.

It is snowing lightly here. It's steady and not just stray flurries.

[SR Airglow]

Just now, wxsniss said:

Yeah was gonna say, we are running out of models to cling to... Dr. Yes tonight is it

Should have trusted my instincts on this, and lots of co-workers counted on my to make a call. Hard not to get swept away by pretty much every TV / NWS forecast. Not over yet, let's hope RGEM vomits on this one though it sure is steady and consistent

 

I went 10-14" this morning in my office and got a lot of "well XYZ said 18". Now I'm hoping we can get 8" that people think is 10" so I don't bust myself 

[WeatherWilly]

Disappointing but what can you do- a bonus to get any snow at all this late. All you can do is hope for a nowcast storm track miracle. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

HRRR doesn't appear to be going any further west

[BRSno]

5 minutes ago, SR Airglow said:

I went 10-14" this morning in my office and got a lot of "well XYZ said 18". Now I'm hoping we can get 8" that people think is 10" so I don't bust myself 

 

6 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Yeah was gonna say, we are running out of models to cling to... Dr. Yes tonight is it

Should have trusted my instincts on this, and lots of co-workers counted on my to make a call. Hard not to get swept away by pretty much every TV / NWS forecast. Not over yet, let's hope RGEM vomits on this one though it sure is steady and consistent

 

Same boat, I have at least updated and tried not to cling to a fake call that was relevant 3 days ago. 

At least I didn't encourage the "close the office" call 

Para NAM looked much better than any other run today, hope that becomes the majority of the 0z suite, even without the RGEM. 

[weatherwiz]

0z NAM bufkit for Waterbury and BDL actually aren't very bad.  Best so far with moisture in the SGZ.  Only issue is it has Waterbury changing over/mixing by 11 and BDL at noon 

[Ginx snewx]

Look closely at these SR models and notice the elongation east as it approaches LI, indicates to me that the redeveloping centers are developing east as convection fires North as we saw in Jan 11 and Jan 15. Watch the HRRR and RAP closely 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Look closely at these SR models and notice the elongation east as it approaches LI, indicates to me that the redeveloping centers are developing east as convection fires North as we saw in Jan 11 and Jan 15. Watch the HRRR and RAP closely 

The RAP was always good for a messenger east tick.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Look closely at these SR models and notice the elongation east as it approaches LI, indicates to me that the redeveloping centers are developing east as convection fires North as we saw in Jan 11 and Jan 15. Watch the HRRR and RAP closely 

That's what saved the 0z Nam run from being even more west

[ariof]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Look closely at these SR models and notice the elongation east as it approaches LI, indicates to me that the redeveloping centers are developing east as convection fires North as we saw in Jan 11 and Jan 15. Watch the HRRR and RAP closely 

I noticed this too. The optimist says these models, and the GFS maybe even, is on to something. The pessimist realizes how little I know about this and that I'm wishcasting.

[sankaty]

0Z GFS does not look west at 3 hours.  Got to report good news where I find it.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The RAP was always good for a messenger east tick.

Still a helluva thump and a quick crash south on the HRRR.  For that fact the RGEM too. Some panicky peeps 

[Hoth]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Still a helluva thump and a quick crash south on the HRRR.  For that fact the RGEM too. Some panicky peeps 

Ginxy, you seeing the Mt Holly radar? Just reminds me so much of '11 with that rapid growth in coverage. Might start earlier than I expected.

[eekuasepinniW]

I'm anticipating receiving a record breaking quantity of yellow pixels tomorrow. Maybe even some orange ones.

[BRSno]

GFS is more rain than anything else 

[weatherwiz]

way west with 850 low.  big warmth from central/eastern CT into RI and eastern MA

[dendrite]

Sleet into SE NH this run.

[dryslot]

I wasn't breaking the bad news..................