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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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Not very smart to really be discounting anything at this time.  All week and up until now there has been substantial spread with regards to low pressure track and positioning and this was even highlighted very well within the ensembles.  There is just as much of a likelihood this system tracks as far west as the NAM shows as there is the system tracking further east like GFS or Euro.  So much convection across FLand off the coast and moisture feeding it that models will struggle.  

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sankaty

sankaty

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

My feelings too.  

Trying to maintain perspective by reminding myself that if the NAM were alone at this point showing a snowstorm with the Euro showing rain, I wouldn't give the NAM a second thought.  The GFS going so far west at 18Z freaks me out a bit, though.

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DomNH

DomNH

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Just now, dendrite said:

That was based on the ptype algorithm. I don't think it'd be anything other than snow though.

Nah I actually think it's colder than 18z, not that I'm worried about it. That's an SNH destroyer verbatim. We play in feet. Too bad it's the NAM and is likely too amped. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

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2 minutes ago, sankaty said:

Trying to maintain perspective by reminding myself that if the NAM were alone at this point showing a snowstorm with the Euro showing rain, I wouldn't give the NAM a second thought.  The GFS going so far west at 18Z freaks me out a bit, though.

Exactly my reasoning...it goes both ways!!  

 

If it was showing 30 inches..and the Euro was showing 12, which would you take more seriously??  

 

Its own Para was just much better and east..and that's the one going live in two days.

 

its not worrying me.  But that's just me.

 

 

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