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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Throwing bombs from Dallas. Zero percent chance you'd be this harsh from Weymouth. Someone's mad they're missing snow!

C'mon.....it's been snowstorm after snowstorm for us, while DXR/ALB etc has been playing with themselves since 2013. I don't feel bad. In fact, maybe this is the start of regression so get used to it. 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

The Dawnawakening checked out on this one? 

 

BOX prob maps are insane, huge gradient 100% chance of >12 and 99% >18 for extreme NW all the way down to 0% for >4 on the cape and nantucket, wow.

Used up his post limits this morning.

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SR Airglow

SR Airglow

Posted
Posted

My final call for CT: http://www.southernconnecticutweather.com/forecasters-discussion/blizzard-to-hit-connecticut-tomorrow-31417-final-call. One of the more fun discussions I've written in a while.

For the region, I like 18-24" from western CT to western MA to most of VT, NH, ME. Mitch gets the jackpot in Woodford with 28". 12-18" for central/eastern MA outside of 128 and SENH. BOS-PVD is the wild card - I'll stick with my original 10-14" since I've had that since the beginning, but I'm probably more realistically confident in 8-12". SE of there totals go down rapidly - 6-10" for WST-TAN corridor and just east, 4-8" the rest of SEMA, 2-4" for the cape. Enjoy your snow everyone because it's the only snow you've got :P

final map.gif

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just saying. Time to let others get a chance. I'm cool with it. Might be 3rd double digit storm this season.

I'm completely fine with it. 

The gap between mid level banding and low level convergence was being underplayed. At one point I thought I might be stuck in between with crappy snow growth and average rates. The mix line coming up the coast guarantees a boost in rates. If best scenario occurs it will be first time in years I've had heavy wet snow stack up to big numbers. The recent stretch we've been on was usually powder. 

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted

I think totals need to but cut for most.

Will this storm produce ridiculous rates? Yes. I just can't see the widespread massive amounts some are forecasting for everywhere but the coast. It just doesn't have enough time. It's the length of a lot of SWFE's. 

With that being said: This is going to be an awesome storm right down to BOS. I finally got a peek at the models myself. Holy paste along the coast. Combined with 60+ winds. Going to be insane for a bit. 

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just saying. Time to let others get a chance. I'm cool with it. Might be 3rd double digit storm this season.

I get the pissy emotions, been there often past 6 years. But even when I busted badly in Jan 15 I still enjoyed the radar out east, I was happy for other weenies because I get it...all the hard work and emotion invested, when it pays off its nirvana. Thats why most of us do this. The chase is really fun for me as a weenie, but also as a learning experience from a wannabe met standpoint. I wish everyone gets 2ft but thats not how any of this works. However like some have said, this is a rare bread that covers a crapload of real estate. 

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

I'm sticking with my 18" call for my hood from a few days ago.  Potential is there for a few more inches.  That would be the third biggest storm I have measured since moving here in 2000.  19" would tie for second.  22" would break Rocktober.   Undoubtedly I have had bigger events but I didn't keep track until 2009 or so

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

C'mon.....it's been snowstorm after snowstorm for us, while DXR/ALB etc has been playing with themselves since 2013. I don't feel bad. In fact, maybe this is the start of regression so get used to it. 

Yeah this is the 1 out of 10 that actually hug the coastline...BOS will jack in the remaining 9 of 10, lol.

Forget the jackpot stuff though...this storm will spread the love.  Everyone should get 8"+ in this forum, IMO.  Not sure about James though, haven't looked at the front end there that much.

The other thing for people like sbos_wx is that hey maybe its not 24" of snow but you'll get the wet man snow blowing sideways to every building and tree on 50kt gusts.

The impacts in Eastern Mass and areas on the border will be pretty awesome with heavy wet snow and high winds.  Power outages and all that.  I still think any rain comes after the meaningful precip is mostly done...the WCB is going to rip.

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, powderfreak said:

Yeah this is the 1 out of 10 that actually hug the coastline...BOS will jack in the remaining 9 of 10, lol.

Forget the jackpot stuff though...this storm will spread the love.  Everyone should get 8"+ in this forum, IMO.  Not sure about James though, haven't looked at the front end there that much.

The other thing for people like sbos_wx is that hey maybe its not 24" of snow but you'll get the wet man snow blowing sideways to every building and tree on 50kt gusts.

The impacts in Eastern Mass and areas on the border will be pretty awesome with heavy wet snow and high winds.  Power outages and all that.  I still think any rain comes after the meaningful precip is mostly done...the WCB is going to rip.

Yeah, I think anyone near the mix line should focus on that. If you're down near the Cape.. might not be as easy to say that. Right now the models have most intense winds combined with heaviest precip at BOS and it's all snow. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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7 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Powderfreak is going to be annihilated, by the way

It takes a real lot to get a snow event with over 1" QPF up here, lol....we found the nut this time.

I'm actually jealous of my parents down in Albany area where I grew up.  I think they may score the best mix of the massive WCB and then a deformation pivot zone.  I really think the ALB CWA comes up with some huge totals somewhere between the Catskills/Berkshires region.

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