March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[dendrite]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I don't think so. 

Delusions in Tolland

[dryslot]

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Out to 37hr now

Quite the qpf bump from the 00z run, Wide spread 12-18"/18-24"

[Morch Madness]

What's BDL's record snowfall?

[BRSno]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Except it's been going east 

Genuinely curious, why do you think it will? 

[WthrJunkyME]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah I just found the page, Its at hr 39, Thanks

That's good, thought I was ending up with 4"!

[SR Airglow]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Except it's been going east 

Except it hasn't been. 

[CoastalWx]

HRRR is pretty cold in terms of ptype.Still snow at s coast at 17z.

[dryslot]

Just now, WthrJunkyME said:

That's good, thought I was ending up with 4"!

Yes, No...........lol

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, SR Airglow said:

Except it hasn't been. 

This, Its actually further west here, Low was going thru BHB, Now its KWI

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR is pretty cold in terms of ptype.Still snow at s coast at 17z.

Cold bias though

[Morch Madness]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR is pretty cold in terms of ptype.Still snow at s coast at 17z.

Yeah I was just about to post, that is significantly colder than most other models, though it's probably out of skilled range

[CoastalWx]

Man the euro would argue dinner plates falling in BOS at like 20z. Literally.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Cold bias though

I find the opposite.

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Damn...I mean look at the size of the 12"+ zone.

This will be one the largest snow producers over such a huge area in years and years.

When you get 12"+ possible from ROC to PWM, that's impressive.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Morch Madness said:

Yeah I was just about to post, that is significantly colder than most other models, though it's probably out of skilled range

It might be from tremendous lift, because srfc temps near 32-33. Good luck to power grids in ern ma tomorrow.

[JC-CT]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I find the opposite.

I've been "burned" by it before

[CoastalWx]

Well it was interesting seeing how a major airline destroys the lives of a travelers on a snow day. 

[dryslot]

HRRR burns a lot.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, SR Airglow said:

Except it hasn't been. 

So let's evaluate that.

Rgem East

Euro/ ENS- slightly east

GFS correcting west because was too east 

Para Nam- same or nudge east

So......

 

 

 

[wxsniss]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR is pretty cold in terms of ptype.Still snow at s coast at 17z.

That's like 18 hour HRRR... pretty to look at and keep hope alive in eastern SNE, but questionable range, no?

[wx2fish]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Well it was interesting seeing how a major airline destroys the lives of a travelers on a snow day. 

Shut'em down

[CoastalWx]

Just now, JC-CT said:

I've been "burned" by it before

Really, I used to think the opposite. But, as I said earlier...I think it's more the dynamics, because srfc temps aren't all that cold. Eh, just another piece of guidance. I do wish for once I can see hours of 4"/hr snows. One thing in my life I have not seen. Prolonged uber snows. Either not around, or bad luck. 

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't think so. 

What is West? I'm honestly asking because other than GFS what has come west today?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

That's like 18 hour HRRR... pretty to look at and keep hope alive in eastern SNE, but questionable range, no?

Yep..and usually it's questionable because it's too amped. Although, that's not to say it could be wrong in other ways.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

What is West? I'm honestly asking because other than GFS what has come west today?

I thought some ticks west occurred today.

[Briz600]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So let's evaluate that.

Rgem East

Euro/ ENS- slightly east

GFS correcting west

Para Nam- same or nudge east

So......

 

 

 

Euro East?

[CoastalWx]

Boy a track from GHG to even S of KPYM could mean the difference of like 5" at BOS. So close.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Briz600 said:

Euro East?

It was 10-15 miles east of 00z and Will said EPS was about dead nuts on with it.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I thought some ticks west occurred today.

The old NAM did at 12z and the 18z Gfs did 

[sankaty]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So let's evaluate that.

Rgem East

Euro/ ENS- slightly east

GFS correcting west because was too east 

Para Nam- same or nudge east

So......

 

 

 

The RGEM was maybe a couple miles east?  Mostly, it stayed the same.  Also true of the Euro.

I can't see the NAM-para 12K, but the NAM 12/4/3K all went significantly west (the 3K least so).

The GFS was way west.