March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[CT Rain]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Lol I was thinking that Ryan, those rates just off of the SECT shore could be insane, BDR actually looks good in this setup and WEHA looks amazing, talk Wiz down off the ledge

I'm feeling pretty good here. Worried about some dry slotting and the best snows setting up north of the H7 low but can't find much to complain about to be honest.

[CarverWX]

Looks like 2-4 maybe 3-6 before change down here.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

BOS proper better with 8-12. 12-18 to high.

Yes... box map is too high here.... is go 4-8

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Glad I don't live there. I ride the line that run.

Ha yeah sorry didn't mean to make it sound like it.

I think that was an impressive run for northern CT.

[8611Blizz]

What time does the rain make it too Boston on the gfs?

 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

NCAR ensemble mean (special 12z run). 

Nice 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, CarverWX said:

Looks like 2-4 maybe 3-6 before change down here.

Yeah... I'd go 2-4 there... 4-8 tops here... this is probably ticking west until go time 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

I'm feeling pretty good here. Worried about some dry slotting and the best snows setting up north of the H7 low but can't find much to complain about to be honest.

I think HFD looks sweet.

[CoastalWx]

The Hudson valley crusher. Finally.

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully those that have been fortunate for KU after KU since 2013 can suck it up.

[rgwp96]

this better not be another march let down for me in nw jersey, basically every model has me has 2ft.

[mahk_webstah]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice 

And it isn't over for some of us at that point

[JC-CT]

Obviously the concern is it isn't done coming west

[Sn0waddict]

9 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Playing with the rain/sleet line in CT could really deliver the goods. Sometimes you have to play with fire. 

Sure hope so! I see upton is now going min 6 max 24 on the shoreline.   Correlation coefficent radar is going to get a lot of use tomorrow in SNE

[dryslot]

12 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

NCAR ensemble mean (special 12z run). 

Ryan, Does it go to hr 48?

[dendrite]

Man you can almost go with a blizzard warning back here too. It's borderline for frequent gusts at criteria.

[CT Rain]

Just now, dryslot said:

Ryan, Does it go to hr 48?

Yes but not out that far yet

[SR Airglow]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Obviously the concern is it isn't done coming west

Exactly. I'd be fine with 10" followed by some rain - these things happen and 10" is nothing to complain about, especially in mid March. Would not be fine with 3-6" and then pounding rain all day. Would be a huge black mark on the grade of what has been a fun winter so far considering the temps to finish with getting the rug pulled out in the final 24 hours.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Ryan, Does it go to hr 48?

Out to 37hr now

[Morch Madness]

Oh well, it still should be a fun couple of hours in the morning. Congrats westerners.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, SR Airglow said:

Exactly. I'd be fine with 10" followed by some rain - these things happen and 10" is nothing to complain about, especially in mid March. Would not be fine with 3-6" and then pounding rain all day. Would be a huge black mark on the grade of what has been a fun winter so far considering the temps to finish with getting the rug pulled out in the final 24 hours.

At least we all get a snow day regardless 

[SR Airglow]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

At least we all get a snow day regardless 

Yup. Travel ban for CT as well.

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

At least we all get a snow day regardless 

Man it it's fun to look at that radar. You can see everything coming together all that moisture being drawn up from the south southeast and then the empty coming in in the Tennessee Valley and the Trainwreck occurs right in our nameMan it it's fun to look at that radar. You can see everything coming together all that moisture being drawn up from the south southeast and then the energy coming in in the Tennessee Valley and the Trainwreck occurs right in our neighborhood 

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yes but not out that far yet

Yeah I just found the page, Its at hr 39, Thanks

[wxsniss]

2 minutes ago, SR Airglow said:

Exactly. I'd be fine with 10" followed by some rain - these things happen and 10" is nothing to complain about, especially in mid March. Would not be fine with 3-6" and then pounding rain all day. Would be a huge black mark on the grade of what has been a fun winter so far considering the temps to finish with getting the rug pulled out in the final 24 hours.

Not finding an obvious H5 init issue to lean east but admittedly just looked at first 12 hours of various models

Agree with you 3-6" and heavy rain would be pretty disappointing given the expectations of 10" plus that guidance has given us for days.

 

But look at it this way: If we have the 1.8-2.0"+ qpf that Euro / NAM / GFS paint for Boston, we lose 40% to rain (say 0.8" rain), and the rest (1.2") averages 8:1 ratios, we still 9.6" snow.

[ApacheTrout]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully those that have been fortunate for KU after KU since 2013 can suck it up.

funniest thing I've read all day.

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Obviously the concern is it isn't done coming west

Except it's been going east 

[Briz600]

Well this sucks. Every time I look at this thing it keeps going further and further west. At this rate I would rather it just all be rain and start my spring.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Except it's been going east 

I don't think so. 

[dendrite]