March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[8611Blizz]

18 minutes ago, FSUIZZY said:

Well this went from one of the most hyped storms in the East, SE to is it even going to snow enough to stay. They (TV meteorologists) are walking this storm back faster than one of Trump's tweets in this region.

This. 

 

Reminds me of 20-25 years ago when forecasts regularly changed dramatically on many storms. Was hoping we were past that.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, FSUIZZY said:

This is your guess based off the NAM and RGEM models? Or do see something in the model itself?

At 24 it is west of the 12z

[dryslot]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Well at this point I've already seen the run, but no it's not a guess at all. You could tell from the h5 trough orientation at initialization that it would be west.

It is probably 30-35 miles west of 12z.

Good guess!

[powderfreak]

Just now, dryslot said:

18z GFS is west of 12z, Its out hr33

It's bound to figure it out eventually, lol.

[BRSno]

Reassuring to see so many calls for 12-18" for BOS.

GFS quite a bit further west, as expected. 

[BuildingScienceWx]

Rain on CT shore by 1PM according to GFS

 

[JC-CT]

Just now, powderfreak said:

It's bound to figure it out eventually, lol.

NO. THIS IS THE FINAL SOLUTION. END OF DISCUSSION.

ok?

[SR Airglow]

That's a substantial jump west on the GFS. Knocks BOS down to about 9" or so.

I said 10-14" this morning and I'm sticking with it, but I think the lower end is more likely than the higher.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

It's bound to figure it out eventually, lol.

Its probably not done........lol.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

NO. THIS IS THE FINAL SOLUTION. END OF DISCUSSION.

ok?

FINAL ANSWER?

It still is on the eastern side of guidance. 

[8611Blizz]

Just now, BRSno said:

Reassuring to see so many calls for 12-18" for BOS.

GFS quite a bit further west, as expected. 

Harvey is at 8-12 all the way to 128 so my confidence in the bigger calls is very low...

[SouthCoastMA]

I've seen enough. It's over down this way 

[Cold Miser]

...The fleet is ready here.

[JC-CT]

Just now, powderfreak said:

FINAL ANSWER?

It still is on the eastern side of guidance. 

Stop stealing my snow

[powderfreak]

GFS destroys most of CT and Mass west of ORH.  Looks like a bit of a pivot there.

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, DamnIce said:

Rain on CT shore by 1PM according to GFS

 

Eastern CT shore but from HVN on west even right at the shore 925s and 850s all stay below 0, still mostly snow on this run.

[CT Rain]

NCAR ensemble mean (special 12z run). 

[FSUIZZY]

7 minutes ago, SR Airglow said:

That's a substantial jump west on the GFS. Knocks BOS down to about 9" or so.

I said 10-14" this morning and I'm sticking with it, but I think the lower end is more likely than the higher.

With this trend, I am going with the Weenie model. I project Sleet, Rain, and Slush. 1-3 Boston. Final Call. Based off nothing but Weenieorology. Can't forget people off Tobin in this forecast. That is vital and important part of this forecast with a pinch of sarcasm. 

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Stop stealing my snow

BDL gets crushed.

2.0"QPF and solidly all snow.

[The 4 Seasons]

5 minutes ago, DamnIce said:

Rain on CT shore by 1PM according to GFS

 

we're gonna be right on the bleeding edge, gonna be a nowcast thing for sure. Hopefully we can pull it off.

[BRSno]

2 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Harvey is at 8-12 all the way to 128 so my confidence in the bigger calls is very low...

 

4 minutes ago, SR Airglow said:

That's a substantial jump west on the GFS. Knocks BOS down to about 9" or so.

I said 10-14" this morning and I'm sticking with it, but I think the lower end is more likely than the higher.

My thinking as well. Based on all the trends I think 8-12" is the most likely scenario unless this trends colder/east which doesn't seem likely. 

Pretty only the EURO on our side. 

[CT Rain]

Playing with the rain/sleet line in CT could really deliver the goods. Sometimes you have to play with fire. 

[codfishsnowman]

16 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, was just noticing that.  I think the hilltowns around those aforementioned valleys will be the big winners. 

don't worry the hrrr has a nice valley screw zone by 18z, pray it's wrong

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

BDL gets crushed.

2.0"QPF and solidly all snow.

Glad I don't live there. I ride the line that run.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

...The fleet is ready here.

Impressive, those 3-4 inch rates are dangerous for those guys, hopefully the travel ban works

[DomNH]

I think I gotta up to like 15-22" here. 12'' might be too low of a low end. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Playing with the rain/sleet line in CT could really deliver the goods. Sometimes you have to play with fire. 

Lol I was thinking that Ryan, those rates just off of the SECT shore could be insane, BDR actually looks good in this setup and WEHA looks amazing, talk Wiz down off the ledge

[CoastalWx]

BOS proper better with 8-12. 12-18 to high.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

Meh, Harvey doesn't seem to think the changeover occurs Boston north til 5-6pm, I'm still pretty confident on a wet 10-12". Considering how quickly it comes down and the potential for some nice tree damage with winds, it's a fun event.

[RI Rob]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

BOS proper better with 8-12. 12-18 to high.

Grosssssss