March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[powderfreak]

  On 3/13/2017 at 4:29 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Noyes goes ballz deep

http://

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Ahhh haha.  Someone just told me they saw we are getting 24-30" and I was like uhhh what?

Looks like NECN is where they saw that.

[J Paul Gordon]

  On 3/13/2017 at 4:27 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like Adolf takes it near or just west of CHH...waiting on Napoleon.

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The consensus remains firm. Interior stays all snow NW of PRV-BOS for all practical purposes.

[mreaves]

  On 3/13/2017 at 4:31 PM, CoastalWx said:

Yeah this is a good one for all. Finally. I'm happy for the interior. Big storm droughts are a curse. The worst. Congrats to those that have been left out.

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Being a bit shell shocked and gun shy after the last couple of years, I will say thank you but hold up on the congrats till it actually happens. lol

[dendrite]

  On 3/13/2017 at 4:32 PM, powderfreak said:

Ahhh haha.  Someone just told me they saw we are getting 24-30" and I was like uhhh what?

Looks like NECN is where they saw that.

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It took everything he had to not throw up some of his 36-48" shading there.

[BRSno]

Me thinks BOX goes with 8-12" for BOS on the next update unless the EURO shows otherwise.

Quite bullish of Noyes to have 18-24" for BOS when there is 0 model support for that.

Here is WBZ for comparison:

[dryslot]

 

[powderfreak]

  On 3/13/2017 at 4:34 PM, dendrite said:

It took everything he had to not throw up some of his 36-48" shading there.

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Yeah that's not happening. 

Its moving too fast to drop those amounts, IMO.

I've got 12-20" for the Ski Resort Operations forecast.  No way on 24-30+.

I think a foot is a good bet, as I still have to consider the GFS east.  The mid-level tracks would get us to 12" though I think in that case anyway.

 

[dryslot]

  On 3/13/2017 at 4:32 PM, powderfreak said:

Ahhh haha.  Someone just told me they saw we are getting 24-30" and I was like uhhh what?

Looks like NECN is where they saw that.

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No way.

[TalcottWx]

Some of these amounts are stupidly high for the duration we'll experience. 10-16" Bos.

[dendrite]

  On 3/13/2017 at 4:37 PM, powderfreak said:

Yeah that's not happening. 

Its moving too fast to drop those amounts, IMO.

I've got 12-20" for the Ski Resort Operations forecast.  No way on 24-30+.

I think a foot is a good bet, as I still have to consider the GFS east.  The mid-level tracks would get us to 12" though I think in that case anyway.

 

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Chris had a good point about the GFS. The lows still have a wide tilt up around our region. The GFS seemed stronger this run vs 6z. If you assume it's underestimating the rate of strengthening you'd see the mid/low/sfc lows tucked in closer like other guidance.

[powderfreak]

  On 3/13/2017 at 4:38 PM, dryslot said:

No way.

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Yeah... even up here it trucks through in like 12 hours.

The backside lingering upslope and stuff could do for an extra day and that's where you add another 3-6" of fluff or something but the meat of this looks like a 10-14" to me, followed by maybe 3-6" in the following 24 hours of persistent cyclonic flow.  That gets me to my 12-20" type range.

Way too fast to get anything close to 24"+, IMO.  Way too fast.

[MaineJayhawk]

  On 3/13/2017 at 4:38 PM, dryslot said:

No way.

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15-20 sound reasonable?

[Morch Madness]

I don't see anything that supports 18-24 in BOS

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/13/2017 at 4:41 PM, powderfreak said:

Yeah... even up here it trucks through in like 12 hours.

The backside lingering upslope and stuff could do for an extra day and that's where you add another 3-6" of fluff or something but the meat of this looks like a 10-14" to me, followed by maybe 3-6" in the following 24 hours of persistent cyclonic flow.  That gets me to my 12-20" type range.

Way too fast to get anything close to 24"+, IMO.  Way too fast.

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Someone is gonna see 20"+ out of this in 10-12 hours...that's almost a given to me. But I wouldn't broadbrush amounts that high. It will depend on where any bands set up.

[powderfreak]

  On 3/13/2017 at 4:41 PM, dendrite said:

Chris had a good point about the GFS. The lows still have a wide tilt up around our region. The GFS seemed stronger this run vs 6z. If you assume it's underestimating the rate of strengthening you'd see the mid/low/sfc lows tucked in closer like other guidance.

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Yeah that's true.  Looking at the GFS it does have some good banding actually northwest of here...there's like an area of fronto over Montreal after the bulk of the precip moves through.

Tighten that up and it might be better further SE.

[dryslot]

  On 3/13/2017 at 4:42 PM, MaineJayhawk said:

15-20 sound reasonable?

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Yes

[dryslot]

  On 3/13/2017 at 4:43 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Someone is gonna see 20"+ out of this in 10-12 hours...that's almost a given to me. But I wouldn't broadbrush amounts that high. It will depend on where any bands set up.

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20"+ yes, 24-30", No.

[centralmass]

http://www.necn.com/news/new-england/Historic-and-Life-Threatening-Storm-Expected-Tuesday-416008823.html

 

Noyes doing a livestream

[Hoth]

Noyes with the Blue Steel expression lol. Nice screen grab DIT. 

[powderfreak]

  On 3/13/2017 at 4:43 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Someone is gonna see 20"+ out of this in 10-12 hours...that's almost a given to me. But I wouldn't broadbrush amounts that high. It will depend on where any bands set up.

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Ok yeah true...I do like ALB's CWA for something crazy honestly...like lower Hudson River Valley region up into the Berks and SVT/SNH.

I just think on the whole this thing will be trucking along. 

I guess the question is are these model QPF amounts right (like you were musing, is it 0.25-0.3" an hour or is it more like 0.17") in the  warm conveyor belt. 

Also snow growth is always a wildcard.  Snow growth gets good then even reduced QPF will go big with snow totals.

[dendrite]

  On 3/13/2017 at 4:43 PM, dryslot said:

Yes

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I like 12-17.9" here.

[FSUIZZY]

  On 3/13/2017 at 4:32 PM, powderfreak said:

Ahhh haha.  Someone just told me they saw we are getting 24-30" and I was like uhhh what?

Looks like NECN is where they saw that.

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Is it just me or has NECN Weather forecasting dropped off a bit since NBC BOSTON has arrived. At least online if you check out weather videos NBC BOSTON will be up to date and NECN will be from 6-8 hours earlier. Also the A team is usually now on NBC BOSTON.

[dryslot]

  On 3/13/2017 at 4:45 PM, dendrite said:

I like 12-17.9" here.

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Save a chicken.

[ariof]

  On 3/13/2017 at 4:43 PM, Morch Madness said:

I don't see anything that supports 18-24 in BOS

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You mean you don't see a single run of the Euro from two or three days ago?

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 3/13/2017 at 4:44 PM, dryslot said:

20"+ yes, 24-30", No.

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Someone could hit 24".  But that's the upper limit I would think.   I have my doubts many see over 18"

[SR Airglow]

  On 3/13/2017 at 4:43 PM, Morch Madness said:

I don't see anything that supports 18-24 in BOS

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Yeah agreed. I've been telling people in my office 10-14" then drizzle later in the day. Should be real man snow though which will be a nice change from our last few events.

[dryslot]

12z Ukie

[Morch Madness]

  On 3/13/2017 at 4:47 PM, ariof said:

You mean you don't see a single run of the Euro from two or three days ago?

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Why would I care about Euro runs from 3 days ago?

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/13/2017 at 4:44 PM, dryslot said:

20"+ yes, 24-30", No.

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24-30 wouldn't shock me either...I just wouldn't forecast it. We've seen those amounts before in 10-12 hour storms....2/5/01, 12/25/02 (NW of ALB had like 30 inches in 12 hours), Feb 2006, etc.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 3/13/2017 at 4:47 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Someone could hit 24".  But that's the upper limit I would think.   I have my doubts many see over 18"

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Yeah.... I think the jackpot area is like 20-24...most see less than 20

24-30+ is LOL