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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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  On 3/13/2017 at 3:37 PM, ORH_wxman said:

GFS being pretty stubborn through 24 hours...not really west...maybe like a razor width. It's stronger though.

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Was gonna say looks pretty damn close at 5h.  You cans ee why we have these "warmer" solutions over the last 12-18hr though.  That lead s/w was at one time escaping E further pushing the baroclinic zone a bit E.  Now they are drilling that s/w pretty much due N into SNE.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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  On 3/13/2017 at 3:47 PM, WinterWolf said:

I mean if the GFS is still lost at this point...then it just really sucks...I mean we are about 15 hours out at this point.

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Lost?

You guys are talking like 50 mile differences in track.  Given the whole scale of the system its not that much off.  Its inside the "ensemble" range of variability.

10 models aren't going to be stacked one on top of the other.  The GFS has made some big changes since yesterday...huge west shift.  It wasn't even snowing up here yesterday on the GFS.

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dendrite

dendrite

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  On 3/13/2017 at 3:47 PM, powderfreak said:

GFS will be too low with QPF up here.

H7 low closed off over Litchfield County, CT and heads towards like CON.... seems light on the moisture in the deeper interior for that track.

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I think the H7 temps give an idea of where the GFS is placing the best mid-level fronto. Looks like E NY and then up through you into N NH.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

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  On 3/13/2017 at 3:49 PM, powderfreak said:

Lost?

You guys are talking like 50 mile differences in track.  Given the whole scale of the system its not that much off.  Its inside the "ensemble" range of variability.

10 models aren't going to be stacked one on top of the other.  The GFS has made some big changes since yesterday...huge west shift.  It wasn't even snowing up here yesterday on the GFS.

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No, No, What I meant was...I'd be inclined to think it's more correct being this close in than the Meso's at this point.   

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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  On 3/13/2017 at 3:50 PM, dryslot said:

I don't think its lost at this point, That track is well within reason.

 

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I just looked between the models...including the GFS...and there's about 75 miles worth of spread in track.

That's really nothing in the larger scale of computer weather models.  However, it impacts a huge population on this board so it seems to be much larger than it actually is.

Everything is well within the range of possibilities and aren't as far apart as people think they are.  Its just the sensible weather differences are huge for those inside that 75 mile zone, ha.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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  On 3/13/2017 at 3:52 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah we've seen the west moves stop and now slowly trickling east. Gfs staying put and Ukie east are tell tale. Euro should move slightly east based on those.

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Yeah, its not like its going up the CT River Valley.  The goal posts are pretty narrow on the whole.

Like geese farts and stuff like that may push it a few miles one way or another.

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