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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion


powderfreak

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  On 3/13/2017 at 3:15 PM, SR Airglow said:

12z RGEM.

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Not going into panic mode on that one. Basically model madness time. There has been a fair "consensus" (using the term broadly) that this baby is going to go close to the canal give of take a few miles (elbow=east; narragansett bay-->pym= west). Still expecting that barring a major change in the globals. 

But, I'm no met and I don't know what a major amp up might mean in terms of rain/snow line, taint.

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  On 3/13/2017 at 3:18 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Dud huh, lol geezus

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

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I dunno, as someone who lives in a supposed "screw zone" with potential taint down in Hingham, I'd be perfectly happy getting 10-12."  That's a solid storm and gravy when you consider I was walking around the playground with my kids, looking at a bare ground and not wearing a jacket last Wednesday.

Great to see points north and west of the recent SNE snow capital otherwise known as the South Shore get in on the action!

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  On 3/13/2017 at 3:19 PM, ORH_wxman said:

The WCB on some of these runs is almost not believable...like 4 inches per hour stuff for 3 hours....I know it's plausible, but it's hard to actually think that will happen.

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Too many models have it. I guess it's time to start believing it. There will be some sick hourly precip totals from the ASOS sites with the weighing gauges...P0030 type obs if the models are correct.

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I also agree with Will that we should wait on the globals plowing this through Brockton before hand-wringing about the NAM and RGEM. Wouldn't be surprising if they're overdone. Split the difference between the NAM/RGEM and the GFS/Euro and most are happy. 

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  On 3/13/2017 at 3:22 PM, dendrite said:

Too many models have it. I guess it's time to start believing it. There will be some sick hourly precip totals from the ASOS sites with the weighing gauges...P0030 type obs if the models are correct.

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Yeah not every single model can be that wrong on it.  You'll be dropping 0.75" QPF in 3-hours over a big area. 

The type of stuff where life in SNE just comes to a complete halt during it.

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  On 3/13/2017 at 3:19 PM, ORH_wxman said:

The WCB on some of these runs is almost not believable...like 4 inches per hour stuff for 3 hours....I know it's plausible, but it's hard to actually think that will happen.

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I just envision a freight train hitting a concrete bunker.  This is a really good antecedent airmass for the time of year and we have a strong southern stream riding up into it.  Radar will be impressive.

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  On 3/13/2017 at 3:22 PM, dendrite said:

Too many models have it. I guess it's time to start believing it. There will be some sick hourly precip totals from the ASOS sites with the weighing gauges...P0030 type obs if the models are correct.

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Oh I know it's gonna be crazy, but I'm wondering if it's still somewhat overdone. Like these are 3 hourly rates near an inch of QPF. I wonder if it ends up being more like 0.17 per hour stuff. I dunno, still got time to figure that out.

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