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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
  On 3/13/2017 at 2:45 AM, powderfreak said:

Yeah everyone in SNE will see rates that would make anyone jealous.  No worries down there.  The moisture is incredible.

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I could honestly see Mitch throwing up a 30 spot in Lenox or maybe at his S VT field of dreams.   

 My elevation keeps my expectations in check but I'm even planning on 12-18" here. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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  On 3/13/2017 at 2:52 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I could honestly see Mitch throwing up a 30 spot in Lenox or maybe at his S VT field of dreams.   

 My elevation keeps my expectations in check but I'm even planning on 12-18" here. 

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All of SNE looks good for a foot of snow...should never be any complaints over double digit snowfall.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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  On 3/13/2017 at 2:49 AM, Hoth said:

Ryan going locally 24" in your area. Relax.

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We'll see.  I mean the window for really heavy snow (3"/hr) rates isn't generally long...few hours maybe.  This is a good like 5 hours of at least moderate snow (3 hours heavy).  Still a lot more I would like to see before I start thinking 1-2' statewide.  It's great that we have the great mid levels, incredible moisture, and lift but also not seeing a tremendous amount of RH in the SGZ is a but problematic.  Snow ratios may also be more crappy than not given the strong winds aloft and lack of good RH.  Outside of wherever the band is I don't see this being epic.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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  On 3/13/2017 at 3:00 AM, weatherwiz said:

We'll see.  I mean the window for really heavy snow (3"/hr) rates isn't generally long...few hours maybe.  This is a good like 5 hours of at least moderate snow (3 hours heavy).  Still a lot more I would like to see before I start thinking 1-2' statewide.  It's great that we have the great mid levels, incredible moisture, and lift but also not seeing a tremendous amount of RH in the SGZ is a but problematic.  Snow ratios may also be more crappy than not given the strong winds aloft and lack of good RH.  Outside of wherever the band is I don't see this being epic.

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When snowflake production begins at 575, mean RH is 94 % and Omega is -25 , yeah that's 3 plus per. You might hit 20 plus at school 

nam_2017031300_039_41.59--71.99.png

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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  On 3/13/2017 at 3:09 AM, Ginx snewx said:

When snowflake production begins at 575, mean RH is 94 % and Omega is -25 , yeah that's 3 plus per. You might hit 20 plus at school 

nam_2017031300_039_41.59--71.99.png

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My worry though is those parameters are only short-lived...by 18z it's a much different look.  We def will rip 3"+ per hour in the banding but the question how long is that sustained for?  If it's only a few hours or so that will make it real tough to pull 18"+

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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  On 3/13/2017 at 3:14 AM, weatherwiz said:

My worry though is those parameters are only short-lived...by 18z it's a much different look.  We def will rip 3"+ per hour in the banding but the question how long is that sustained for?  If it's only a few hours or so that will make it real tough to pull 18"+

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Good luck with figuring it all out. Happy forecasting.  

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

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  On 3/13/2017 at 3:26 AM, snowgeek said:

qpf_acc.us_ne.png

I'd give my left nut for this.  Long live the Para 3Km NAM.  May it bring us many years of entertaining solutions.

KUCHY for sh**ts and giggles.  Nice 43" max in the Catskills.

snku_acc.us_ne.png

 

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This one has a shot at epic for us E NY, W SNE folks.  Big period of daylight +SN incoming. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
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  On 3/13/2017 at 3:31 AM, weatherwiz said:

This is from 18z run but the best frontogenesis moves out rather quick and by 18z (when models still show "heavy" snow falling we have frontolysis.  Not goodie.  It's certainly going to rip...just for how long?IMG_0109.thumb.PNG.d6fe51bc0839a0e84cc1ba5c377704a5.PNG

 

IMG_0110.thumb.PNG.a0bf74e95c3975ec1f300ced30a67f76.PNG

 

IMG_0111.thumb.PNG.b2f2a127c62daf5c0e55f33a1ac6d7bb.PNG

 

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Ok already we get it...we're only getting 8-12 at most in CT.  Everything is working against us!!   Jeez what a DEBBIE!!

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