March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[wxsniss]

Looks like slightly sharper digging of southern stream through 21 hours

[snowgeek]

12Km NAM thru 21 looks like southern stream is digging a bit more and ridge looks a bit more pumped up in east. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/13/2017 at 2:03 AM, ORH_wxman said:

NAM is dragging heels a bit on southern stream through 24...wonder if that is gonna cause it to swing around further right this run.

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Yeah a little disconnected from

nrn stream s/w.

[Whineminster]

Is this the Valentine's day storm 2007 you're referencing? I just remember drinking Coors light in the dorm lounge at UMass watching it pelt for hours and being disappointed as we were supposed to get more snow. 

  On 3/13/2017 at 1:50 AM, ORH_wxman said:

2007 as an analog but with mostly snow and not all that sleet mixing in would be a pretty good result.

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[geo1]

  On 3/13/2017 at 2:03 AM, Zeus said:

Have you and I ever, uh, you know... "sparred?"

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I wish! But your brash web lingo swayed me in another direction when I was a youngin. 

[powderfreak]

  On 3/13/2017 at 2:03 AM, ORH_wxman said:

NAM is dragging heels a bit on southern stream through 24...wonder if that is gonna cause it to swing around further right this run.

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Agreed...it looks to swing east, at least initially. 

These runs will start heading east with the features.  To outside the Cape.

[The 4 Seasons]

  On 3/13/2017 at 2:06 AM, powderfreak said:

Agreed...it looks to swing east, at least initially. 

These runs will start heading east.

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Hope so. Started to get a little concerned for CT, but not much.

[dryslot]

The Nam is hair slower this run but still looks like it may be a tick west

[snowgeek]

The less phasing and more digging points to an east trend, but the slightly more ridging out in front points to a west trend.  Tough call.  Split the difference.  

[weathafella]

 

Low position is identical 36 hours vs 42 at 18z.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 3/13/2017 at 2:06 AM, powderfreak said:

Agreed...it looks to swing east, at least initially. 

These runs will start heading east with the features.  To outside the Cape.

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I dunno' this one may end up tucky tuck when we are in nowcast. 

[wxsniss]

Actually thought slower / more digging southern stream might allow greater interaction with northern stream and tick west track...

[Typhoon Tip]

Looks like they expanded the blizzard watch considerably 

[geo1]

  On 3/13/2017 at 2:06 AM, geo1 said:

I wish! But your brash web lingo swayed me in another direction when I was a youngin. 

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Off topic anyways, and I have huge implications with this storm working in the city. Major event happening Tuesday night and was hoping for product delivery Tuesday am guess that's a no go ! Yikes I'm fffed

[snowgeek]

Low is maybe 25 miles NW at 36 hours compared to 18z.

[weathafella]

  On 3/13/2017 at 2:12 AM, snowgeek said:

Low is maybe 25 miles NW at 36 hours compared to 18z.

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I don't see that.  Coordinates appear that me the same.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 3/13/2017 at 2:12 AM, snowgeek said:

Low is maybe 25 miles NW at 36 hours compared to 18z.

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[JC-CT]

Really far west I think

[snowgeek]

i just compared on Tropical Tidbits using the 12Km NAM.  I dunno?

[weathafella]

Maybe due north by a few miles....

[dryslot]

Yeah, Its going to be west this run

[weathafella]

  On 3/13/2017 at 2:14 AM, JC-CT said:

Really far west I think

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That's para-im comparing regular.

[wxsniss]

Really slight ~ 25 mile tick northwest by 39 hours... probably within range of noise... gonna be a huge hit

[The 4 Seasons]

The regular NAM does look west by a tad, maybe 25 miles like someone said earlier

[weathafella]

39 hour regular west.  Will it do something with the blob to the east?

[JC-CT]

  On 3/13/2017 at 2:16 AM, weathafella said:

That's para-im comparing regular.

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Para is the new regular as of this coming Wednesday 

[dryslot]

  On 3/13/2017 at 2:17 AM, The 4 Seasons said:

The regular NAM does look west by a tad, maybe 25 miles like someone said earlier

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Its tucked in closer to the coast

[weathafella]

Shellacking!

[78Blizzard]

NAM will be within 20 mi of 18z position when it hits cape area.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Huge moisture shield on the NAM.