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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion


powderfreak

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  On 3/12/2017 at 5:01 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I'm fully expecting a good amount of taint here... the million dollars question is how much... do we still pull 6-10"... or is it like a 2-4" slop fest.

Should know more in about an hour 

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It will quite easy for you to pull off 6-10". Any chances for more than that seem precarious if the canal/pym/fmh tracks pan out. Hoping the euro is closer to the GFS in track. 

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  On 3/12/2017 at 4:54 PM, NeonPeon said:

The options are narrowing, and many of them spell rain during some of the productive parts of the storm in the SE.  

The nice thing is if the track is tucked but slower, the wrap around with some luck would make up for some of it.  Not loving this location though for this one.  I'll be in the minority saying that if it really gets its act together though.

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Ditto. I feel like the Euro is going to go west a tick which will pull down our numbers here. 

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  On 3/12/2017 at 5:11 PM, weathafella said:

Taunton doesn't know of all the storms in the annals with similar track that gave hm 12+.   It's not like the mid level warmth goes at all west of the low center in any of the guidance.  

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  On 3/12/2017 at 5:11 PM, weathafella said:

Taunton doesn't know of all the storms in the annals with similar track that gave hm 12+.   It's not like the mid level warmth goes at all west of the low center in any of the guidance.  

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Larger threat is dry slot...

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  On 3/12/2017 at 5:11 PM, dryslot said:

I expect this upcoming Euro run to be slower then 0z and may have some more interaction from the GL low just based on what the Ukie did at 12z

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Jeff, when speaking of slower, are we thinking slower in that the storm is moving slower?  Or slower in that the storm is delayed a bit..but still moving at the same speed? 

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I'm trying to see if this storm is worth $500+ to fly home Early from The Netherlands and TAUNTON (not far from me) is talking 2"-10"???  

 

I NEED People to be Confident I'm getting 20" in Northern Rhode Island to spend that money to come home Monday vs. Tuesday.  And need to know soon.  

 

Am I likely getting 20" or Not?  

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  On 3/12/2017 at 5:16 PM, OceanStWx said:

It's sneaky too, because it doesn't show up well on say a 700 mb RH or 700-500 mb RH plot. But it does show up when you look at something like DGZ RH. 

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What would happen here is that everywhere outside of the cf LLC would dry slot east of ORH.

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  On 3/12/2017 at 5:14 PM, WinterWolf said:

Jeff, when speaking of slower, are we thinking slower in that the storm is moving slower?  Or slower in that the storm is delayed a bit..but still moving at the same speed? 

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Well, Slower in its feeling the effects of the ULL trying to capture it at the surface tugging it back to the NW slowing its progression.

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  On 3/12/2017 at 5:16 PM, CoastalWx said:

Other than the GFS guidance, most other guidance give us a warm conveyor belt dump and then slot for SNE.

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Mixed intellect - no pun intended...

Not trying to be a dink but this seems pretty cookie cut clear:  if the mid levels close of closer to a NAM thinking, no problem... If they (particularly the 700) can hold it together and sneak even minutely south, bullshcit

least that's the way this look right now to me.  I just would be fascinating to see a better phase  - this is a disrupted version.

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