March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 3/11/2017 at 8:49 PM, Spanks45 said:

If this can not be posted, please delete...

Expand  

It's the gefs, youre good. Anyway, we lay in bed with that. 

[JC-CT]

Her name is Stella

[moneypitmike]

  On 3/11/2017 at 8:52 PM, CoastalWx said:

The other thing to keep in mind, are model temps. This time of year, models usually bias too warm in wintry events with ongoing heavy precip. So you can easily trim a few off the modeled temps..especially on the cold side of the low.

Expand  

 

I don't have numbers to confirm, but I figure the climatologically coldest water temps of the year are taking place right now which aids is keeping the coastal areas wintry.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 3/11/2017 at 8:52 PM, CoastalWx said:

The other thing to keep in mind, are model temps. This time of year, models usually bias too warm in wintry events with ongoing heavy precip. So you can easily trim a few off the modeled temps..especially on the cold side of the low.

Expand  

..among the myriad of other details...right.

this whole thing can have a novel written  -

[ineedsnow]

Alb cwa in a watch now

[Sugarloaf1989]

At this early juncture, AccuWeather has 6-10" storm total, while WU has 13" just for Tuesday for my local.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/11/2017 at 8:58 PM, ineedsnow said:

Alb cwa in a watch now

Expand  

Winter storm? I could see winter storm watches going up but blizzard watches are a bit too confident for my blood. I'd also prob feel less confident of winter storm watches in ALB. 

[weathafella]

  On 3/11/2017 at 8:57 PM, moneypitmike said:

 

I don't have numbers to confirm, but I figure the climatologically coldest water temps of the year are taking place right now which aids is keeping the coastal areas wintry.

Expand  

It helps when H85 are so cold.   I was outside throwing the ball with the dog at the golf course.   Exposed to wind and drifting of yesterday and last nights snow such that some spots had like 8-10 inch drifts.   I packed it in after 35 minutes .  That's what's seeding this bad boy.

[78Blizzard]

  On 3/11/2017 at 8:52 PM, CoastalWx said:

The other thing to keep in mind, are model temps. This time of year, models usually bias too warm in wintry events with ongoing heavy precip. So you can easily trim a few off the modeled temps..especially on the cold side of the low.

Expand  

That's something the NAM needs to learn, lol.  What a weird solution.  At 72 hr the surface low is over 100 mi E of the 12z position, yet despite that it now has the 0° 850 line up to the MA NH border and west to Springfield.

[dryslot]

  On 3/11/2017 at 8:57 PM, JC-CT said:

Her name is Stella

Expand  

Artois?

[ineedsnow]

  On 3/11/2017 at 9:00 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Winter storm? I could see winter storm watches going up but blizzard watches are a bit too confident for my blood. I'd also prob feel less confident of winter storm watches in ALB. 

Expand  

 Ya winter storm watch for 7 or more

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

i like my location for this.... going to be hard to miss a big snow

[powderfreak]

  On 3/11/2017 at 9:00 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Winter storm? I could see winter storm watches going up but blizzard watches are a bit too confident for my blood. I'd also prob feel less confident of winter storm watches in ALB. 

Expand  

BTV put out CWA wide Winter Storm Watch along with ALB... lol.

BTV always the first to put up the Winter Storm Watches in New England...and usually the least likely to verify them, ha.

[OceanStWx]

My feeling at this point is simple. Even a hugger is going to front end thump 4-8" and something east of a hugger could be a large snow storm. So my confidence is 50% in 6+, but very low in an actual hard and fast snow total forecast. 

[dryslot]

  On 3/11/2017 at 9:04 PM, OceanStWx said:

My feeling at this point is simple. Even a hugger is going to front end thump 4-8" and something east of a hugger could be a large snow storm. So my confidence is 50% in 6+, but very low in an actual hard and fast snow total forecast. 

Expand  

I see you hoisted.

[powderfreak]

Seems a bit too gung-ho but what do I know.

You can tell even GYX is forecasting on their western zones what BTV is forecasting on their western zones.

[Morch Madness]

  On 3/11/2017 at 9:00 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Winter storm? I could see winter storm watches going up but blizzard watches are a bit too confident for my blood. I'd also prob feel less confident of winter storm watches in ALB. 

Expand  

 

BGM has watches up for 12-18" across their whole CWA - OKX, ALB and BGM all seem too bullish to me this far out.

[eyewall]

  On 3/11/2017 at 9:02 PM, powderfreak said:

BTV put out CWA wide Winter Storm Watch along with ALB... lol.

BTV always the first to put up the Winter Storm Watches in New England...and usually the least likely to verify them, ha.

Expand  

Yeah it wouldn't take much for us to smoke cirrus or be down to a 1-3 non event.

[powderfreak]

  On 3/11/2017 at 9:05 PM, Morch Madness said:

BGM has watches up for 12-18" across their whole CWA - OKX, ALB and BGM all seem too bullish to me this far out.

Expand  

Add BTV to that.

You'd think the interior offices would've seen this movie play before. 

BOX and GYX should be going gung-ho 12-24"...not the other way around. 

[powderfreak]

  On 3/11/2017 at 9:07 PM, eyewall said:

Yeah it wouldn't take much for us to smoke cirrus or be down to a 1-3 non event.

Expand  

We're definitely getting some snow with the ULL.  But I'm surprised at how bullish the interior offices are going right now.

Its like no one has paid attention to the past 5 years or so of coastal storms, ha.

[Spanks45]

  On 3/11/2017 at 8:55 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It's the gefs, youre good. Anyway, we lay in bed with that. 

Expand  

I like the look for the storm next weekend too....

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 3/11/2017 at 9:04 PM, powderfreak said:

Seems a bit too gung-ho but what do I know.

You can tell even GYX is forecasting on their western zones what BTV is forecasting on their western zones.

Expand  

We have all learned, dont weigh the euro much when its riding solo. 

[JC-CT]

  On 3/11/2017 at 9:11 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We have all learned, dont weigh the euro much when its riding solo. 

Expand  

Except in the tropics. Then you literally throw out everything else.

[dendrite]

I like how the NAM takes the H7 low right over SYR and rips the dryslot through all of MA and NH. 

[78Blizzard]

TWC has been showing a wide swath of 12-18" for just about everyone in NE except for PLY to the Cape.

[OceanStWx]

  On 3/11/2017 at 9:14 PM, dendrite said:

I like how the NAM takes the H7 low right over SYR and rips the dryslot through all of MA and NH. 

Expand  

la-la-la lock it in.

[powderfreak]

  On 3/11/2017 at 9:11 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We have all learned, dont weigh the euro much when its riding solo. 

Expand  

They state they went with a NAM/GFS blend with a nod to the 00z EURO (which showed like 1.4-1.8" QPF up here when all was done)....it just seems awfully ambitious to me with 3 days still to go.

[MarkO]

Like the NAM track. Can someone post a clown map?

[Siker]

  On 3/11/2017 at 9:14 PM, JC-CT said:

Except in the tropics. Then you literally throw out everything else.

Expand  

Pretty much tried and true until last year when it was ripping a Cat 5 Hermine through the Gulf of Mexico.

[Semper911]

  On 3/11/2017 at 8:07 PM, powderfreak said:

Surprised those in Mass east of ORH even look at the models anymore lol....you all know how this plays out a week ahead of time.  

Pure crushage.  Just sit back, put your feet up and wait for it to start snowing.  

Expand  

That IS kind of true. Sometimes we miss out, but I always know we will get in on the next one. There is a reason I moved here from Phx, AZ.

 

I do dread hearing about the decade-long snow drought like the 80's though, and I have genuine sorrow for areas like Vermont and upstate NY who have missed out a lot in recent years. A snow lover needs his snow.