March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[eyewall]

That Euro run was a complete disaster for BTV. A 1-3" fringe job at best 

[CoastalWx]

The H7 low on the mean goes near the canal to just east of PWM. I'd hit it.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:24 PM, The 4 Seasons said:

The Canadian was a tad west too no?

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Oh right. Forgot about the ugly red headed step child. Yeah GGEM came well west...but it was an eastern outlier before. 

[dryslot]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:23 PM, weathafella said:

81 and 84 crush me.   I can't get them to save so won't be posting them.

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Have to hit the export image at the bottom of the page then save it.

 

[dryslot]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:24 PM, CoastalWx said:

The H7 low on the mean goes near the canal to just east of PWM. I'd hit it.

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[Damage In Tolland]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:24 PM, CoastalWx said:

The H7 low on the mean goes near the canal to just east of PWM. I'd hit it.

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Now that's naked for SNE

[weathafella]

Thanks Jeff!

Another flag is the qpf on the eps-higher for many vs the op.  Somebody post a snow map please?

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:24 PM, eyewall said:

That Euro run was a complete disaster for BTV. A 1-3" fringe job at best 

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one of those set ups where the sun-set hour lights up the sky orange while it's snowing

[eyewall]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:31 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

one of those set ups where the sun-set hour lights up the sky orange while it's snowing

Exactly.

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk

[Paragon]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:29 PM, weathafella said:

Thanks Jeff!

Another flag is the qpf on the eps-higher for many vs the op.  Somebody post a snow map please?

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yes and the member cluster please!

[weathafella]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:31 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

one of those set ups where the sun-set hour lights up the sky orange while it's snowing

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Like yesterday.  

 

Given the robust showing of the euro ensembles I'm confident that run was a turd.

[jbenedet]

PNA ridge continues to improve on guidance and I think this may help to cap the progressiveness on the east coast, by allowing the northern shortwave to dig faster sooner.

[JC-CT]

[powderfreak]

Actual lows seem the cluster is definitely west of the mean.

[Paragon]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:32 PM, eyewall said:

 

Exactly.

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk
 

 

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I've seen it snowing moderately while the sun was setting- it looked sort of pink to me.

I also saw it snowing hard when the sun was rising- that one looked amber lol.

 

[OceanStWx]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:20 PM, ORH_wxman said:

The period from 72 hours to 78 hours looks a bit spurious to me on the OP run. It's not that it is impossible for that to happen, just that it is rare. The ensembles sort of confirm that. They did tick east (but so did the rest of the 12z suite minus the NAM)...but they have a much cleaner look to them. Prob still some western members in there because the isobars look like they kink back to the west a bit. 

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Definitely. The spread is all west of the op track. 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:32 PM, eyewall said:

 

Exactly.

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk
 

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it reminds me of that big event in the MA last year that struggled to get to even CT... It finally did, but only for a couple of hours did the snow bands arch their way up before falling appart/collapsing back SE... in that time, we had orange sky sunset with light snow blowing by.  It was actually as appreciatively beautiful as a spectacle as it most like was infuriating as a snow geeser -

[Ginx snewx]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:34 PM, OceanStWx said:

Definitely. The spread is all west of the op track. 

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Do they have a PF sensitivity index? 

[dryslot]

[Paragon]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:33 PM, jbenedet said:

PNA ridge continues to improve on guidance and I think this may help to cap the progressiveness on the east coast, by allowing the northern shortwave to dig faster sooner.

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Good point so this shouldn't be the 15 hr kind of quick hit the 12z GFS was showing,.

[ORH_wxman]

Looks like the ensembles prob have like 2/3rds to 3/4ths of the members west of the OP run. 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:34 PM, OceanStWx said:

Definitely. The spread is all west of the op track. 

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i was just going to say...

don't really need any software to point that out; trust one's eyes - the op. is probably right at the east envelope - close to it anywho

[JC-CT]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:38 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like the ensembles prob have like 2/3rds to 3/4ths of the members west of the OP run. 

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[Hoth]

Those ensembles are gorgeous. Question: when do we start turning away from them and focusing more on the op runs? Tonight?

[powderfreak]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:35 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Do they have a PF sensitivity index? 

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Yeah my senses are pretty good, lol.  It'll be east of what we need for a crush job.

[78Blizzard]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:38 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like the ensembles prob have like 2/3rds to 3/4ths of the members west of the OP run. 

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Based on that I would be surprised if the op @ 0z doesn't come back west.

[OceanStWx]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:39 PM, Hoth said:

Those ensembles are gorgeous. Question: when do we start turning away from them and focusing more on the op runs? Tonight?

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Tonight is still 3 solid days away. Ensembles very much in play still.

[Paragon]

Thanks for posting the maps guys!

 

[powderfreak]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:39 PM, JC-CT said:

 

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Ah that's the map I've been looking for.  Wish the WxBell maps would add the OP in on the low clusters.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:37 PM, Paragon said:

Good point so this shouldn't be the 15 hr kind of quick hit the 12z GFS was showing,.

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I think the meat of this storm is going to be 15 hours or less...we don't really have a big stall. It's possible we could buy like 3-6 hours of we get that lead shortwave to hook just at the right time. But that's not something I'd count on just yet. 

 

 We could get Tip's orange sunset snow for like the next 24 hours after that though as the main ULL to the west finally passes under us.