March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:00 PM, OceanStWx said:

I mean the 700 mb low is still in a decent position on the Euro. Deformation would be more of an I-95 crusher, but not as much a whiff as it may seem.

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Yea, thats what I said...Id prob get a giid band

[Paragon]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:04 PM, moneypitmike said:

 

Congrats ATlantic City

 

Also, not all the US is on DST.  Part of Indiana and other areas as well.

 

 

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yes and I think Arizona too.  But I don't think I'd want to live there lol

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:05 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, thats what I said...Id prob get a giid band

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The 500 structure is still pretty nice. I wouldn't be surprised to see that tuck back in better on 00z.  

[OceanStWx]

Don't forget Hawai'i. But then you're worrying about when the 12z Euro comes out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:08 PM, ORH_wxman said:

The 500 structure is still pretty nice. I wouldn't be surprised to see that tuck back in better on 00z.  

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I'm expecting that...not worried

[codfishsnowman]

The goal post between the nam and euro don't get much wider 3 days out

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:05 PM, Paragon said:

Here are some images of the UK, I only wish they ran it in 12 hr increments.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Thanks for posting. That looks beastly. 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:09 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm expecting that...not worried

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The ideal solution would be for that shortwave to hook back in to the west a bit right as it approaches the BM or ACK...in that vicinity. That would basically act as a pseudo stall for a few hours and also enhances all the goodies we like aloft. 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:08 PM, OceanStWx said:

Don't forget Hawai'i. But then you're worrying about when the 12z Euro comes out.

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85/65 with  morning and afternoon showers who needs the Euro 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:12 PM, Ginx snewx said:

85/65 with  morning and afternoon showers who needs the Euro 

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Unless you're on the Gold Coast...85 and mostly sunny. 

[JC-CT]

EPS isn't making the jump that the OP did. A tad east of 0z EPS but west of the OP.

[WintersComing]

  On 3/11/2017 at 6:51 PM, Paragon said:

Oh I know, but I mean why don't they change the run time of the models to compensate for DST?  This is really just about the Euro, because I don't mind being up at midnight for the GFS.  I believe they use DST in most of Europe too.

So basically we would have 23z runs instead of 0z runs during DST

Let me give them a quick call and ask them. Be right back.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[OceanStWx]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:11 PM, ORH_wxman said:

The ideal solution would be for that shortwave to hook back in to the west a bit right as it approaches the BM or ACK...in that vicinity. That would basically act as a pseudo stall for a few hours and also enhances all the goodies we like aloft. 

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Track due north up the elbow.

[The 4 Seasons]

EPS looks fine, the mean is west. But east of 00Z run, well take it.

 

Curious to see what individual members look like

[Paragon]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:15 PM, OceanStWx said:

Track due north up the elbow.

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Ironic how many of the models had that exact track until this Euro run showed up.

[Paragon]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:16 PM, The 4 Seasons said:

EPS looks fine, the mean is west. But east of 00Z run, well take it.

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Great news- hope to see what the clustering of the members looks like

[Ginx snewx]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:13 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Unless you're on the Gold Coast...85 and mostly sunny. 

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True ,best surf other side

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:16 PM, The 4 Seasons said:

EPS looks fine, the mean is west. But east of 00Z run, well take it.

 

Curious to see what individual members look like

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Yeah they def look better than the OP. 

[Paragon]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:12 PM, Ginx snewx said:

85/65 with  morning and afternoon showers who needs the Euro 

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Hey they have Blizzards in Hawaii too! Just last week if I'm not mistaken they had a Blizzard Warning up for Mauna Loa for 1-2 feet of snow and also a Flash Flood Warning.

[The 4 Seasons]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:17 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah they def look better than the OP. 

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Just a fluke run is my gut, based on the entire 12Z suite.

[Paragon]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:08 PM, OceanStWx said:

Don't forget Hawai'i. But then you're worrying about when the 12z Euro comes out.

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and probably Alaska too!

[Typhoon Tip]

You mean phase?

sure - yeah...

[codfishsnowman]

they were pretty far east to begin with

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:18 PM, The 4 Seasons said:

Just a fluke run is my gut, based on the entire 12Z suite.

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The period from 72 hours to 78 hours looks a bit spurious to me on the OP run. It's not that it is impossible for that to happen, just that it is rare. The ensembles sort of confirm that. They did tick east (but so did the rest of the 12z suite minus the NAM)...but they have a much cleaner look to them. Prob still some western members in there because the isobars look like they kink back to the west a bit. 

[dryslot]

[weathafella]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:17 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah they def look better than the OP. 

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Big positive flag!

[Paragon]

So we basically have 12z GFS/ 12z GEFS/ 12z GGEM/ 12z UK/ 12z EPS vs 12z Euro Not to mention previous runs of the Euro and EPS argue against it too.

[JC-CT]

I think we have to wait and see here. It could go either way.

[weathafella]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:20 PM, dryslot said:

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81 and 84 crush me.   I can't get them to save so won't be posting them.

[The 4 Seasons]

  On 3/11/2017 at 7:20 PM, ORH_wxman said:

The period from 72 hours to 78 hours looks a bit spurious to me on the OP run. It's not that it is impossible for that to happen, just that it is rare. The ensembles sort of confirm that. They did tick east (but so did the rest of the 12z suite minus the NAM)...but they have a much cleaner look to them. Prob still some western members in there because the isobars look like they kink back to the west a bit. 

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The Canadian was a tad west too no?