March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/11/2017 at 6:12 PM, powderfreak said:

Really?  I feel like these always go east as we get closer.  It's why us up here need to enjoy those solid runs...the models are our snowstorm lol.

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That was a large shift. But I guess this far out anything is possible.

[wxsniss]

Small changes in that fujiwara interaction --> big implications

The southern stream dances a little farther, a little further east, SLP does not get swung around to the north as much

[weathafella]

  On 3/11/2017 at 6:13 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

CJ run?

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Could be.

[Damage In Tolland]

Feet for SNE this one 

[powderfreak]

  On 3/11/2017 at 6:12 PM, dryslot said:

Westerner start to worry

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Way east.

[BostonWX]

Total CJ run with the usual gradient near 128

[dendrite]

  On 3/11/2017 at 6:12 PM, powderfreak said:

Really?  I feel like these always go east as we get closer.  It's why us up here need to enjoy those solid runs...the models are our snowstorm lol.

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Funny how the weenieisms change with time. For a decade we had the NW trend on every system. 

[weathafella]

So the euro is now the eastern end of the envelope.

[dryslot]

  On 3/11/2017 at 6:14 PM, powderfreak said:

Way east.

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You get another one like that and its a whiff.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I could get deformation

[weathafella]

I have to think this is an over correction.

[dendrite]

  On 3/11/2017 at 6:14 PM, powderfreak said:

Way east.

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Congrats Jimmy.

[jbenedet]

Prob see this curve back west after 96 with --fujiwara pheonomenon. I wonder if there's then another phase with that trailing piece of energy in the h500 trough?  

[SR Airglow]

That was not at all what I was expecting. Substantial shift east considering the consensus we'd seen until now. Question is if it's a blip run or if the trend is real?

 

[OceanStWx]

  On 3/11/2017 at 6:13 PM, CoastalWx said:

That was a large shift. But I guess this far out anything is possible.

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That's the thing we're really not that close to the storm yet. So a shift like that is totally within the realm of possibility.

[MarkO]

Wow, that is waaaay East. 

 

That's FEET for Harwichport

[HoarfrostHubb]

Not what I was hoping for.    C'est la vie 

[Hoth]

That is a huge jump east. Not sure what Kevin is looking at. Doesn't look like '11 to me at all. Head scratcher for sure. Seems like it jumps due north, or slightly northwest between 78-84.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/11/2017 at 6:16 PM, weathafella said:

I have to think this is an over correction.

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Agree.

[dendrite]

  On 3/11/2017 at 6:15 PM, dryslot said:

You get another one like that and its a whiff.

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If this solution is the best possible scenario then bring the whiff. I've had enough with nuisance blue ball systems.

[leesun]

James went from 30" to 6" and back to 30" all in 24 hrs

[OceanStWx]

850 mb low went 150 ESE from 00z. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Hopefully just windshield wipers

[ineedsnow]

Ensembles will show if it real or not

[weathafella]

Ths run is fubarred.   Wednesday another low enhances the snow again?  Tossed.

[JC-CT]

Although it has a nice backside with the ULL.

There was an awful lot of precipitation to the direct east side of the surface low from hours 66 through 81. I dunno

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/11/2017 at 6:19 PM, ineedsnow said:

Ensembles will show if it real or not

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Will just follow OP at this point

[dryslot]

[wxsniss]

  On 3/11/2017 at 6:16 PM, weathafella said:

I have to think this is an over correction.

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What's interesting is that the northern stream depiction is not too far from 0z... it's how the southern stream energy is handled... there's a piece of vorticity at 72-78 that juts out east, with a dual-low structure consolidating on an eventual low center that is further east

Yeah this looks inconsistent (specifically with the southern stream handling) from prior runs... 

As I posted earlier, lots of bobbling still possible with this... We (you included, Coastal, most of SNE) are praying for Friday's 12z depiction. I still have low confidence in the specifics.

 

[SR Airglow]

 

  On 3/11/2017 at 6:20 PM, JC-CT said:

Although it has a nice backside with the ULL.

There was an awful lot of precipitation to the direct east side of the surface low from hours 66 through 81. I dunno

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At the risk of sounding weenieish, I wouldn't be surprised if there were some convective feedback issues with this run. Strange look with the precip distribution while it's down off the NJ coastline. Not tossing it yet, but let's see what the ensembles do. Confidence definitely just got shattered though after being fairly high previously.