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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2017 at 2:25 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

I'm in the same boat as you.  Gotta get up over 15" to make it an experience.  Seen a ton of storms that high.  Already had 2 12" storms this season.

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I'm not even trying to sound spoiled, but think about the rarity of them. Is it really worth getting steer horned or snake bitten from that? Meh. Now if this was 4/1/97....I would probably isolate myself from society for at least 1 yr. 

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted

Funny thing about 6z GFS (apologies it was hours ago but this was not commented) is that you might initially expect system to be at least as far west as 0z GFS based on H5 look... but a lobe of vorticity swings around the base of the trough and tugs the system east. That model is struggling with all this energy.

NAM again highlights risk of over-amped southern stream system... congrats far northwest Philly burbs into NY on that run

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2017 at 1:25 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

00z Sunday if I recall.  

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Yes

  On 3/11/2017 at 1:53 PM, CoastalWx said:

If I stay, it shoots up the Hudson. 

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Make sure to use plenty of SPF50

  On 3/11/2017 at 2:28 PM, dendrite said:

I'd eat one of my chickens for an 18" storm.

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I would have already consumed 2 if that was the case............lol

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2017 at 3:23 PM, dendrite said:

Crushed. Your typical BDL-ASH track. 

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Brian,  when was the last time we had a big storm track like this?  Just seems we have had so many that our area is fringed as the track is near the benchmark.  Sorry for most of the guys on these boards but this is a track for us up here.  Plenty of time for shifts but love this track for me....

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2017 at 3:27 PM, wxeyeNH said:

Brian,  when was the last time we had a big storm track like this.  Just seems we have had so many that our area is fringed as the track is near the benchmark.  Sorry for most of the guys on these boards but this is a track for us up here.  Plenty of time for shifts but love this track for me....

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First of all I wouldn't believe the NAM. I agree with Jer...maybe over CC Canal? Either way you look good right now. Of course the best deformation could also setup to our NW into Vermont. It's a little early for that still. 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2017 at 3:33 PM, jbenedet said:

Low confidence/persistence prediction: given how amped N Stream shortwaves have come in this year--in general--I suspect when this one comes ashore we see guidance correct to a more amplified and phased final solution. 

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Wouldn't be overly shocking. Congrats BTV and Dacks when all is said and done?

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