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Pittsburgh PA spring 2017

KPITSnow

By KPITSnow,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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RitualOfTheTrout

RitualOfTheTrout

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Mailman said:

0z Canadian with a very apparent dry slot.  

Yeah, that is starting to show up on all the models to some degree, need that N/S to dig further South to save us from that. GFS is really the only model that seems to get much over 3-4 inches and I wonder if its going to end up caving. Its almost mid March, I love snow but this time of year is getting to the go big or go home in my book. My benchmark is 6in or bust.

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blackngoldrules

blackngoldrules

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Yeah, that is starting to show up on all the models to some degree, need that N/S to dig further South to save us from that. GFS is really the only model that seems to get much over 3-4 inches and I wonder if its going to end up caving. Its almost mid March, I love snow but this time of year is getting to the go big or go home in my book. My benchmark is 6in or bust.

I'm the same way. Getting a few inches in the middle of March doesn't do anything for me. I'd rather just move on to spring. Another fringe job is just a waste of cold air. Plus, we have to see our friends to the east get buried again while we're left out again. No thanks.

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north pgh

north pgh

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, blackngoldrules said:

I'm the same way. Getting a few inches in the middle of March doesn't do anything for me. I'd rather just move on to spring. Another fringe job is just a waste of cold air. Plus, we have to see our friends to the east get buried again while we're left out again. No thanks.

Was out all night. Just got back and I am still :facepalm:

Any other time we are in a sweet spot the models move one way or another and screw us but when we are not in the sweet spot and we need a little movement it locks in. 

I'll give til tomorrow.

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RitualOfTheTrout

RitualOfTheTrout

Posted
Posted 
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Moisture will begin to increase Monday in response to a
shortwave trough tracking towards the Great Lakes. The
enhancement of the upper low and track towards the Northeast
through Tuesday has made the forecast very complex and it
doesn`t help that the latest guidance from the NAM, GFS, and
ECMWF all have different solutions in terms of the track of the
850mb low and snowfall amounts over the region. However, the GFS
and ECMWF have been trending to place the low level low slightly
more northwest of PIT towards Lake Erie with each run. If this
track verifies, significantly less snow will occur than
previously anticipated due to a surge of relatively warm air
leading to a mix of rain/snow or even some freezing rain as well
as the lack of a strong deformation zone. The most recent ECMWF
run has significantly less snowfall forecast over the CWA. Due
to much uncertainty in the forecast, was not confident at all to
issue any headlines at this point. Have made the forecast from
the superblend to solidify the differences and trend near WWD
snow amount values for collaboration purposes.

 

Figures, we get screwed cause the main storm is just to far east, and the 850 low is trending north so we dry slot on that. 2 more models coming in with similar looks, CMC and UKMET both show the dry slot too.

Man, UKMET is a real bomb too... Can you imagine getting a 991 low sitting inland in Eastern PA.. One of these days it will happen again, but man its tough seeing these other regions get slammed, sorta like watching the team that just beat you skate around with the Stanley cup lol

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Stinkbugspecialist

Stinkbugspecialist

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: 

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Moisture will begin to increase Monday in response to a
shortwave trough tracking towards the Great Lakes. The
enhancement of the upper low and track towards the Northeast
through Tuesday has made the forecast very complex and it
doesn`t help that the latest guidance from the NAM, GFS, and
ECMWF all have different solutions in terms of the track of the
850mb low and snowfall amounts over the region. However, the GFS
and ECMWF have been trending to place the low level low slightly
more northwest of PIT towards Lake Erie with each run. If this
track verifies, significantly less snow will occur than
previously anticipated due to a surge of relatively warm air
leading to a mix of rain/snow or even some freezing rain as well
as the lack of a strong deformation zone. The most recent ECMWF
run has significantly less snowfall forecast over the CWA. Due
to much uncertainty in the forecast, was not confident at all to
issue any headlines at this point. Have made the forecast from
the superblend to solidify the differences and trend near WWD
snow amount values for collaboration purposes.

 

Figures, we get screwed cause the main storm is just to far east, and the 850 low is trending north so we dry slot on that. 2 more models coming in with similar looks, CMC and UKMET both show the dry slot too.

Man, UKMET is a real bomb too... Can you imagine getting a 991 low sitting inland in Eastern PA.. One of these days it will happen again, but man its tough seeing these other regions get slammed, sorta like watching the team that just beat you skate around with the Stanley cup lol

We're not screwed noaa even admiting they know nothing at this point..models are never right. 2hrs befour or 2weeks befour.

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snowsux

snowsux

Posted
Posted
58 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said:

I'm the same way. Getting a few inches in the middle of March doesn't do anything for me. I'd rather just move on to spring.

Yeah, well it's starting to look pretty lousy for the rest of the month after this storm. 40's, rain, etc. Of course long-range forecasts can flip on a dime though. Especially this time of year.

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RitualOfTheTrout

RitualOfTheTrout

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Stinkbugspecialist said:

We're not screwed noaa even admiting they know nothing at this point..models are never right. 2hrs befour or 2weeks befour.

Well I agree its to early to make a definitive statements you can't deny the trends of us getting stuck in the middle so to speak and the discussions continue to get more confident in the dry slot. Maybe those features tweak a little bit in the next 24 hours to lead to a better outcome but we would need to see that starting at 12z today. 

A shortwave trough diving through the Midwest will move a surface
low into the Ohio Valley by Monday evening. Dry mid-level air will
initially hold off precipitation through the early evening. Light
snow, mixing with rain south of Pittsburgh, is then expected to
gradually overtake the area before midnight. Models continue to
suggest drier air and subsidence will be wedged in between a weak
frontal zone through north central Ohio and the strong deformation
zone near Ridges. The result is a relative minima of precipitation
through the central portion of the forecast area Monday night
including through the Pittsburgh metro. Areas to the north could see
a few inches of stratiform snow through day break Tuesday, but
shouldn`t challenge 6" in 12hrs.
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