north pgh Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 All I am asking for is about a 50 mile jog west and I will be happy with 5+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6z GFS, looks similar to Euro in terms of snowfall distribution.. totals keep getting whittled away on us, not a great sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The main event during this period continues to be an approaching Ohio Valley low pressure center/shortwave and a coastal low moving up from the Carolinas, with the eastern low becoming dominant Monday night and Tuesday. The models are in decent overall agreement on the pattern, keeping the strengthening low close to the coast for the most part. Some differences remain, particularly with the shortwave digging into our area, which could complicate the depth of the cold air, and therefore cause precip type issues at least in the early stages of the system. However, confidence in the chance of significant snow accumulation in at least the higher elevations of the eastern portion of the CWA is starting to improve. Relative operational model consistency, and the fact that the southeast ridges remain on the fringe of the higher- percentile area of GEFS QPF M-climate, lend to the possibilities. Another interesting note: the 1993 superstorm shows up as the 4th best match in the CIPS analogs. While we are not expecting a storm of that magnitude and reach, it does suggest that a powerful coastal system is possible. It is still too early to discuss specific storm totals or issue headlines, but the HWO mention will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 NAMMED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 It just seems everything develops too far north, with no closed low SW of us. A bit oversimplified, but I don't see much more to look at. In theory a primary further west would bring the coastal inland, but now it's so disjointed the narrow weaker precip field misses us anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, north pgh said: NAMMED! Heh yep, was just about to post I think we got our obligatory Namming lol, and it keeps snowing after this map too, we do flirt with the dry slot but probably a few more inches as the back end pivots through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 12Z NAM is definitely further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: It just seems everything develops too far north, with no closed low SW of us. A bit oversimplified, but I don't see much more to look at. In theory a primary further west would bring the coastal inland, but now it's so disjointed the narrow weaker precip field misses us anyway. All the pretty colored snow maps aside, the trend has been for a lower impact event for us, NS digs a little less and has a little less interaction with the SS energy, so it takes longer for it to get its act together. I'm hoping for 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: All the pretty colored snow maps aside, the trend has been for a lower impact event for us, NS digs a little less and has a little less interaction with the SS energy, so it takes longer for it to get its act together. I'm hoping for 6. I'd take 6. It would be my biggest storm of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Dont buy into the NAM..The Parallel is completely different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Dont buy into the NAM..The Parallel is completely different More inline with the globals, and cuts snow in half. I think this new version takes over in a few days, so maybe that was our last namming lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The German would be in the westish camp from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Well that sucked...Worse than 6z. It's over Johnny.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Well that sucked...Worse than 6z. It's over Johnny.. Oh does it always end this way? What little hope i felt last night, the GFS has dashed in one run. Eastern seaboard gets another 1'+ storm and we get 1-2in. My frustration level is so high right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Still a decent storm state wide.... except for SW PA. I don't know whats more a masochistic hobby living here, being a baseball fan or chasing big snow storms, fortunately I fall into the latter category rather than both I guess. We just need the whole development to shift South and that could put is into the better totals (6-8), whatever shift we need the opposite seems to happen lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Frustration here, i know i will keep tracking this system. And who knows, maybe SREF member #5 is on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 F u Canada... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The GFS says I'll screw you Tuesday and again Saturday..Wash, rinse , repeat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I'm trying to stay positive since all models are still showing us with some accumulation at least. There is still some time left for an adjustment but I will gladly take whatever snow we get even if only a few inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 This one's going east guys. Like all the others before it. All the signs are there. Another fringe job. I figured this would happen just based off of our history with these storms. The rich get richer as you guys like to say. It is what it is. It's just part of living in this area. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 ukie east too. All energy should just about sampled. Not much room for big changes now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Since the trend is for the primary to go into Ohio, all we can hope for now is a rapid weakening, so that said low fills in, as opposed to being in the doughnut hole of the primary. Sidenote: The GFS has us in the 20's and 30's for almost the whole run. Haven't had a colder stretch in March in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 hours ago, colonel717 said: Well that sucked...Worse than 6z. It's over Johnny.. Good think the models don't get it right ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 EURO way east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 It was fun while it lasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I hope it goes more east..Only 1 GFS member 10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just got back from running errands. Looks like I missed the expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, north pgh said: Just got back from running errands. Looks like I missed the expected. Yep. As expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, colonel717 said: hahahaha At this point if we are to only get between 1-2 in, I want it to go so far OTS that the the USAwx folks lose their minds. They have been talking like this could be crazy historic. Watching the meltdown would make this better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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