MikeB_01 Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 1 hour ago, TeaysValleyWV said: So you got one, cool. I'd be interested in how it works out. My dew point is already in mid 30's....should be a frosty morning. Yes, I didn't purchase it, but was able to borrow it for a while from a friend. I have the handheld one and so far it has been really nice. Does a nice job with wind speed and seems to do alright with temp. My only complaint about it is that it needs time in the air to adjust to the temps. If you go from inside to outside and there is a big change in temp, it can take up to ten minutes for it to figure out that it is in a different environment. Other than that, its sweet. I plan to set it outside tomorrow morning and see what it gets for the temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 On 10/14/2017 at 2:42 PM, MikeB_01 said: Pattern change coming. From the the EPS. GEFS agrees It will be interesting to see how the predicted super typhoon disrupts the jet over the Pac, I think we are seeing effects of its impact with the modeled pattern change. I'm certainly ready from some cooler weather, but would be more excited to see something like this 30 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 Temps made it down to 35.6° at the KPIT and 35.1° at KAGC this morning. I had some spotty frost on my grass. With my handheld weather flow, I only left it out there for 10 minutes and was only able to get it down to 40°. Sure felt colder than that, but like i said in a previous post, i think it takes a while to adjust to a change in environment. Ten minutes probably wasn't enough. Anyway after a chilly start today, we should rebound to normal temps. Last day around normal for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 29 in my backyard, felt good letting the dog out this morning. Nice to see the increasing chatter about the potential pattern change next week, hopefully it will at least stay around normal temperature wise. We are surely due for it and something to track besides warm and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 This weather has been beautiful. I love the great weather of October and am getting anxious about looking at models again heading into November. No matter how old I am the checking of models in the Winter is both an exciting, and we all know frustrating, time of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 I haven't been on the ncep site in months and the maps look a little different. I know last year it seemed to be way behind in updating during model runs too. What site do you guys recommend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 3 hours ago, dj3 said: I haven't been on the ncep site in months and the maps look a little different. I know last year it seemed to be way behind in updating during model runs too. What site do you guys recommend? Topical Tidbits is great for a lot of different models and is all free. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ The College of DuPage also has a really nice one that has some analysis features too. http://weather.cod.edu/ Ryan Maue (formerly of WxBell) has been working with weather.us to develop a models page. It is the only one on the web that has the Euro from free. Its pretty good and he is adding more stuff to it on a daily basis. http://wx.graphics/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 GEFS has a ridiculously strong signal for cold for 8 days out. First flurries of the year off the lakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 19 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: Topical Tidbits is great for a lot of different models and is all free. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ The College of DuPage also has a really nice one that has some analysis features too. http://weather.cod.edu/ Ryan Maue (formerly of WxBell) has been working with weather.us to develop a models page. It is the only one on the web that has the Euro from free. Its pretty good and he is adding more stuff to it on a daily basis. http://wx.graphics/ Appreciated thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 NOAA Winter forecast has been released. Looks fairly similar to NINA climo, which makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 I am interested to see what everyone would say if we tried to find an analog for this year. I have been trying to look at ENSO conditions as well as some conditions in the other various parts of the ocean . If anyone wants to throw a suggestion out there, id love to hear it. I was looking at 1984-1985 but the SSTs are so different in the NA as well as the PDO region. Would love to hear some opinions on analogs. Thanks guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 On 10/17/2017 at 7:40 PM, MikeB_01 said: GEFS has a ridiculously strong signal for cold for 8 days out. First flurries of the year off the lakes? 0z GFS showing some pre-November wintry action for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Is it too early for snow maps? Too bad. I am bored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 9 hours ago, north pgh said: Is it too early for snow maps? Too bad. I am bored. Here is the Euro. A little snow for Halloween in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 lol @ 18z GFS in 9 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 1 hour ago, Mailman said: lol @ 18z GFS in 9 days. Yeah, chances are low for verification. However, regarding a possible longer term pattern, that run shows how a positive tilted trough can still deliver a decent storm. We tend to get screwed either way with those type setups, so it will be interesting we’re the mean trough axis is located this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Nammed Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Out of town forecast But I’ll take it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 50" Total here? Somehow I doubt that very much. La Nina conditions aren't necessarily bad for the Pittsburgh area like they are for the coast, but with presumably prevailing mild conditions for a lot of the winter, I'd be hard pressed to guess we get more than what we've had the last two winters combined. Breaking 15" shouldn't be all that difficult. In my own estimations, though, I think we'll see ~20" down here all winter. 34-50" would basically be average for Pittsburgh proper. I should add: without that one storm, we'd be looking at 11" and 15" the last two winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Next weekend looks interesting the last couple of runs on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 514 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 525 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 514 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 528 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2017 OHC013-019-029-031-059-067-081-119-157-PAC003-007-019-073-085-121- 125-WVC009-029-069-060300- /O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.A.0514.171105T2228Z-171106T0300Z/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 514 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN OHIO THIS WATCH INCLUDES 9 COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL OHIO BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON MUSKINGUM TUSCARAWAS IN PENNSYLVANIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA MERCER VENANGO IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ALLEGHENY WASHINGTON IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BUTLER IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BEAVER LAWRENCE IN WEST VIRGINIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES IN NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA BROOKE HANCOCK OHIO THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALIQUIPPA, AMBRIDGE, BEAVER FALLS, BUTLER, CADIZ, CAMBRIDGE, CANONSBURG, CARROLLTON, COLUMBIANA, COSHOCTON, DOVER, EAST LIVERPOOL, ELLWOOD CITY, FOLLANSBEE, FRANKLIN, GROVE CITY, HERMITAGE, MARTINS FERRY, MONACA, NEW CASTLE, NEW PHILADELPHIA, OIL CITY, PITTSBURGH METRO AREA, SALEM, SHARON, ST. CLAIRSVILLE, STEUBENVILLE, WASHINGTON, WEIRTON, WELLSBURG, WHEELING, AND ZANESVILLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 655 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2017 The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern Jefferson County in east central Ohio... Columbiana County in east central Ohio... Northwestern Washington County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Beaver County in western Pennsylvania... Lawrence County in western Pennsylvania... Western Butler County in west central Pennsylvania... Northwestern Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Northeastern Brooke County in northern West Virginia... Hancock County in northern West Virginia... * Until 800 PM EST. * At 654 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Boardman to near Lisbon to near Carrollton, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some power outages. * Locations impacted include... McCandless Township... Cranberry... Moon Township... New Castle... Weirton... Franklin Park... East Liverpool... Aliquippa... Beaver Falls... Columbiana... Monaca... East Palestine... This includes the following highways... Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 1 and 32. Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 39 and 81. Parkway North between mile markers 12 and 13. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread wind damage. Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Mesoscale Discussion 1762 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0606 PM CST Sun Nov 05 2017 Areas affected...extreme eastern Ohio through western Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514... Valid 060006Z - 060130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514 continues. SUMMARY...Line of strong to severe storms should persist until around 02Z into western PA followed by a rapid decrease in intensity. Damaging wind remains the primary threat, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Additional downstream counties may be added to the watch in the Pittsburg forecast area, but an additional WW is not anticipated at this time. DISCUSSION...Early this evening a line of strong to severe storms extends along the OH/PA border moving east near 50 kt. The line is embedded within very strong wind profiles with large 0-2 km hodographs and 50+ kt effective bulk shear. Occasional bowing segments and meso-vortices continue to be observed, and the threat for damaging wind will persist next couple hours through western PA. However, surface analysis shows a rapid decrease in theta-e across central PA where temperatures are only in the 50s F. The fast line movement will outpace any boundary layer recovery associated with the southwesterly low-level jet. Therefore this activity will likely undergo a rapid decrease in intensity by 02Z as it approaches central PA. ..Dial.. 11/06/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 18 minutes ago, Mailman said: Mesoscale Discussion 1762 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0606 PM CST Sun Nov 05 2017 Areas affected...extreme eastern Ohio through western Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514... Valid 060006Z - 060130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514 continues. SUMMARY...Line of strong to severe storms should persist until around 02Z into western PA followed by a rapid decrease in intensity. Damaging wind remains the primary threat, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Additional downstream counties may be added to the watch in the Pittsburg forecast area, but an additional WW is not anticipated at this time. DISCUSSION...Early this evening a line of strong to severe storms extends along the OH/PA border moving east near 50 kt. The line is embedded within very strong wind profiles with large 0-2 km hodographs and 50+ kt effective bulk shear. Occasional bowing segments and meso-vortices continue to be observed, and the threat for damaging wind will persist next couple hours through western PA. However, surface analysis shows a rapid decrease in theta-e across central PA where temperatures are only in the 50s F. The fast line movement will outpace any boundary layer recovery associated with the southwesterly low-level jet. Therefore this activity will likely undergo a rapid decrease in intensity by 02Z as it approaches central PA. ..Dial.. 11/06/2017 Nice unexpected action tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 915 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2017 OHZ041-050-PAZ014-020-021-029-WVZ001>003-060300- Jefferson-Columbiana-Butler-Beaver-Washington-Allegheny-Brooke-Ohio- Hancock- 915 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2017 ...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WIND AND HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT EASTERN JEFFERSON...SOUTHEASTERN COLUMBIANA... NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...BEAVER...SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER...NORTHWESTERN ALLEGHENY...NORTHERN OHIO...BROOKE AND HANCOCK COUNTIES... At 914 PM EST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Lisbon to near Wellsville to near Wintersville to 7 miles southeast of Cadiz. Movement was east at 55 mph. Wind gusts up to 45 mph are possible with these storms. Locations impacted include... Pittsburgh... Mount Lebanon... Ross Township... McCandless Township... Cranberry... Moon Township... Weirton... Steubenville... Franklin Park... East Liverpool... Aliquippa... Canonsburg... This includes the following highways... Interstate 70 in Pennsylvania near mile marker 8. Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 12 and 22. Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 22 and 48. Parkway North between mile markers 7 and 13. Torrential rainfall also is occurring with these storms and may cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. LAT...LON 4061 8003 4039 8005 4012 8038 4015 8071 4016 8070 4016 8072 4033 8062 4056 8067 4073 8085 4083 8030 TIME...MOT...LOC 0214Z 262DEG 47KT 4070 8083 4055 8072 4034 8075 4020 8090 $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 24 hour reading 2.61" in my gauge at 6AM. Lawn is oozing water when you walk on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 24 hour reading 2.61" in my gauge at 6AM. Lawn is oozing water when you walk on it.Wow, 2.6 is really impressive. I think the official KPIT is only 1.3. That’s a good soaking down there for your guys though. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 3 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: Wow, 2.6 is really impressive. I think the official KPIT is only 1.3. That’s a good soaking down there for your guys though. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk If you add in the precip I got just prior to my 6AM cutoff for CoCoRAHS reporting, I had just over 3" in the 26 hour period. My drainage eventually goes into the Connoquenessing which is flooding at Zelienople. Going from bone dry in October to saturated November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 20 hours ago, TeaysValleyWV said: 24 hour reading 2.61" in my gauge at 6AM. Lawn is oozing water when you walk on it. I cut the grass on Saturday (hopefully for the last time this year) and it was soggy and wet, so it was a real mess after Sunday-Monday rain that fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 From reading various regional threads and twitter accounts there seems to be some optimism building for a colder look heading into mid to late Nov and Dec. Getting some decent signals showing up blocking showing up. Would be nice to have some early season cold to go with the holidays for a change, maybe not putting up Christmas lights in shorts lol. We can do well off some N/S clippers that help enhance LES early in the season with the water being so much warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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