MikeB_01 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Not a great run on the GEFS. Still some members that are decently far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Not a great run on the GEFS. Still some members that are decently far west. Ehhhh still some good hits but if the Euro doesn't hop aboard I don't like our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 GEFS was a lot better at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Mailman said: GEFS was a lot better at 18z. Yea, when looking at the means for both runs, ACG was at 9 in during the 18z and only 6 in for the 00z. Time to wait for the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 FWIW, both models are on a losing streak right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 21 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Yea, when looking at the means for both runs, ACG was at 9 in during the 18z and only 6 in for the 00z. Time to wait for the Euro Yeah I'm hoping the Euro shows a glimmer of hope. If it doesn't I'm taking a break from the boards. It's easier to deal with heartbreak if you aren't super invested in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Euro is running... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Reflexive instinct in me says Euro goes East towards Ukie/CMC solution. Maybe a blend of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I'm around, but I can't say that I have the same amount optimism I had six hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 27 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Yeah I'm hoping the Euro shows a glimmer of hope. If it doesn't I'm taking a break from the boards. It's easier to deal with heartbreak if you aren't super invested in it Hopefully worst case is a compromise between GFS and Euro, if we get a complete cave of GFS to Euro its a lost cause for western PA. If you loop 500mb panels 12z, 18z and 00z you can clearly see a trend towards a slower phase which is bad for us. I've got me benchmark at 6 inches, anything less than that will be disappointing. It's hard for me to get invested in snow in mid March, like we saw today the sun came out and was easily vaporizing the snow even with temps at or below freezing. Anyways, here is the 500 maps for comparison, by 00z you can clearly see more separation between the Northern and Southern stream energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Euro is running... Might be the first and last night I stay up for the Euro all winter season lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 So very early analysis (hour 54), but the trough that is steering our energy is a littler further east which makes me believe the L will push further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 L is a little east at 72h compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Mailman said: L is a little east at 72h compared to 12z. A little east yes, but the energy is also a little further north. Good sign? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: A little east yes, but the energy is also a little further north. Good sign? Yeah.. does appear that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 West of 12z at 84h. That's promising! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 at hr 84, we are still on the coast, looks like a better run so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Off the coast at 90. Looked like a good run until this last shot. Looks east. Pretty similar to what is was at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: Off the coast at 90. Looked like a good run until this last shot. Looks east. Pretty similar to what is was at 12z I'll give it to 12z gfs tomorrow if it doesn't show promise. Consider me done tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Ouch... Good night all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Something that might get over looked, The bulk of the precip is further west than 12z. Our issue is that the precip shield is not as large. D.C. on the 12z got clobbered, on this run some of the southern suburbs are out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: One final note on this run, something that might get over looked, The bulk of the precip is further west than 12z. Our issue is that the precip shield is not as large. D.C. on the 12z got clobbered, on this run some of the southern suburbs are out of it. Yeah, overall storm is not nearly as impressive on 00z Euro for anywhere really except maybe extreme SE PA. That fringed look is just depressing, hopefully we see some better results in Sat 12z & Sun 00z rns. Close enough for now to keep interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The more I look, even though the precip goes down, i actually think the system comes west. Take a look at the energy from the 12z and the 00z. 00z is definitely west compared to the 12z. One reason precip is down overall is because of the speed of the system on this run. Much faster moving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Kuchera numbers are a little higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 more evidence that the euro actually moved west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 EPS is east of the HRES, but there are some members that are definitely better for us than others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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