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Pittsburgh PA spring 2017


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12 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said:

Maybe it's just me getting older, but I'm definitely not a fan of this weather. Bitter cold and nuisance snow showers just aren't my thing. I'd rather get a nice snowstorm and then have a moderating trend right after. Being teased with that warm weather we had last month probably didn't help either. Never been an LES fan anyway because you have to get lucky and be in just the right place, and then you usually don't get more than an inch or two at most out of a band anyway. I'll take the 50s and 60s again over this. That's just me though.

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Doesn't look like this breaks anytime soon. Not saying we get anything significant but wouldn't be surprised if it snows first part of April. 

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1 hour ago, blackngoldrules said:

Maybe it's just me getting older, but I'm definitely not a fan of this weather. Bitter cold and nuisance snow showers just aren't my thing. I'd rather get a nice snowstorm and then have a moderating trend right after. Being teased with that warm weather we had last month probably didn't help either. Never been an LES fan anyway because you have to get lucky and be in just the right place, and then you usually don't get more than an inch or two at most out of a band anyway. Usually less than that. I'll take the 50s and 60s again over this. That's just me though.

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I don't mind the LES, I like days when its snowing periodically all day at varying intensities, especially after a big storm. I hate when it warms up immediately following a storm and there's no time to get out and enjoy it. I will admit I would have much preferred this pattern in Jan or Feb though, probably would have been far more productive.

One good thing, hopefully all this late cold delays grass cutting season by a few week!

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2 hours ago, TeaysValleyWV said:

Roads were the worst I've seen all winter this morning.  Yesterday salt trucks were dime a dozen pouring salt on dry pavement, this morning didn't see one.  Plowable snow covering Rt. 19 in places.   We got about 2" and still snowing.

They were pretty dicey when I got near McKeesport \ West Mifflin, else where mainly just wet or a light coating. Fairly large piles of snow in the parking lot, guessing this area must have gotten at least 2-3 inches over night.

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10 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

They were pretty dicey when I got near McKeesport \ West Mifflin, else where mainly just wet or a light coating. Fairly large piles of snow in the parking lot, guessing this area must have gotten at least 2-3 inches over night.

I didn't officially measure, but i would say we got somewhere around an inch in the south hills. I can still see some grass sticking up out of the snow. The NWS only have one report from the metro this morning. 2.0 in out in white oak. I don't doubt the the city and some of the other locations in the path of that intense band could have dropped a quick 2 inches and may have picked up another in over night. Some crazy return rates were coming out of that thin band that sparked all of the statements for the NWS last night.

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22 minutes ago, north pgh said:

I actually just had to shovel my driveway. I was under those bands all morning. Measured 3 inches of powdery snow but there is a lot of blowing and drifting. Still snowing lightly.

Looks like its probably snowing decently back home, that band has pivoted North some, but still looks to be going strong. Winds must be starting to get a more westerly component to them now.

radar.jpg.1eafb60aba89d7a9402087063e445ec2.jpg

 

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Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1253 PM EDT WED MAR 15 2017

PAZ013-014-020-021-151745-
Butler-Lawrence-Beaver-Allegheny-
1253 PM EDT WED MAR 15 2017

...SNOW SHOWER WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE...

At 1250 PM EDT, a line of snow showers, centered near Gibsonia over
the Turnpike was moving southeast at 35 mph.  These will affect the
Turnpike from the Ohio line to the Monroeville exit.

A rapid inch of accumulation is possible with wind gusts near 30
mph.


Locations impacted include...
Penn Hills...                     McCandless Township...
Monroeville...                    Cranberry...
Franklin Park...                  Beaver Falls...
Shaler Township...                Plum...
Hampton Township...               New Kensington...
Economy...                        O`hara Township...

This includes the following highways...
  Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 11 and 56.

  Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 46 and 54.


LAT...LON 4041 7976 4080 8037 4087 8033 4052 7970
      4049 7970
TIME...MOT...LOC 1650Z 304DEG 31KT 4064 8001

$$
15


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56 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

You guys ready to track another minor threat?

bPXn3VM.png

Looks like that is a snow before changing to all rain. However, not sure i buy that it will be that warm when the system pushes through.

gem_z500aNorm_us_13.png

That ridge looks like it is really pumping in the west. I would guess the trough would be a little deeper in the east

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NWS with fake news...

Feds knew blizzard forecast was exaggerated — but didn’t want to confuse us

They completely flaked us out.

On the eve of Tuesday’s Winter Storm Stella, the National Weather Service got reports that its dire prediction of up to 2 feet of snow for New York City may have been exaggerated — but decided not to change its forecast.

Fears of a massive blizzard led officials to close city public schools and for above-ground train service to be stopped — but in the end, only about 7 inches fell in Central Park.

After announcing that snow could reach record levels in the city, NWS meteorologists in New York and other Northeast cities held a conference call Monday afternoon about computer models that dramatically cut predicted totals.

But they decided to continue forecasting deep snow, claiming that they didn’t change their forecast for fear people would mistakenly think the storm was no longer dangerous.

“Out of extreme caution, we decided to stick with higher amounts,” Greg Carbin, chief of forecast operations at the Weather Prediction Center in Maryland, told the Associated Press. “I actually think in the overall scheme that the actions [by states and cities] taken in advance of the event were exceptional.”

Bronx state Sen. Ruben Diaz Sr., who rushed back to his district from Albany, fumed at the weather watchers for their flaky forecast.

“What is this, fake news?” Diaz said. “Shame on them, because you made the city spend a lot of money. They made a lot of people lose money.”

Carbin said a last-minute change downgrading snowfall totals might have caused people to let their guard down because ice was still a potential danger for cities such as New York and Washington.

“The nature of the beast is that there’s always uncertainty in every forecast and we have to get better at describing that,” Carbin said.

Dramatically changing forecasts in what meteorologists call “the windshield wiper effect” only hurts the public, said Bob Henson, a meteorologist for the private Weather Underground.

Officials seemed to be caught off guard by the storm’s weakness compared to the forecasts.

“Mother Nature is an unpredictable lady sometimes,” Gov. Andrew Cuomo said at a morning press conference.

“She was unpredictable once again today. All the forecasts said the storm would hit New York City and Long Island the heaviest, although it would affect the entire state.”

While the city and Long Island were spared the worst of Stella, upstate New York took a beating, as a slew of towns and cities reported around 20 inches of snow by early Tuesday afternoon.

Broome County was expected to receive up to 35 inches of snow.

Parts of Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey were also clobbered by snow, sleet and wind when the nor’easter tracked west.

A blizzard warning for New York City was canceled at 8 a.m. Tuesday — but nearly 15 million people were still stuck in areas with blizzard conditions.

“In the end, New York wasn’t that bad and everything is shut down here,” said Rachel Holzberg, 24, of Ridgewood, NJ.

“We lost our power. I realized it was snowing pretty hard and everyone seemed to be cooped up inside, but I didn’t expect the power to go out.”

New York City should be relatively back to normal Wednesday morning. Mayor Bill de Blasio announced early in the day that schools would reopen — and defended his decision to shutter them during the storm.

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35 minutes ago, psunate1977 said:

I thought I read that next week was suppose to start getting warmer and we could see temps near 60 by end of next week. I doubt this verifies, but track away. After yesterday, I am done until next winter. I didn't snowboard once this year.

 Nope. Gonna be ****ty until 2nd week of April or so.

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18 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

NWS with fake news...

Feds knew blizzard forecast was exaggerated — but didn’t want to confuse us

They completely flaked us out.

On the eve of Tuesday’s Winter Storm Stella, the National Weather Service got reports that its dire prediction of up to 2 feet of snow for New York City may have been exaggerated — but decided not to change its forecast.

Fears of a massive blizzard led officials to close city public schools and for above-ground train service to be stopped — but in the end, only about 7 inches fell in Central Park.

After announcing that snow could reach record levels in the city, NWS meteorologists in New York and other Northeast cities held a conference call Monday afternoon about computer models that dramatically cut predicted totals.

But they decided to continue forecasting deep snow, claiming that they didn’t change their forecast for fear people would mistakenly think the storm was no longer dangerous.

“Out of extreme caution, we decided to stick with higher amounts,” Greg Carbin, chief of forecast operations at the Weather Prediction Center in Maryland, told the Associated Press. “I actually think in the overall scheme that the actions [by states and cities] taken in advance of the event were exceptional.”

Bronx state Sen. Ruben Diaz Sr., who rushed back to his district from Albany, fumed at the weather watchers for their flaky forecast.

“What is this, fake news?” Diaz said. “Shame on them, because you made the city spend a lot of money. They made a lot of people lose money.”

Carbin said a last-minute change downgrading snowfall totals might have caused people to let their guard down because ice was still a potential danger for cities such as New York and Washington.

“The nature of the beast is that there’s always uncertainty in every forecast and we have to get better at describing that,” Carbin said.

Dramatically changing forecasts in what meteorologists call “the windshield wiper effect” only hurts the public, said Bob Henson, a meteorologist for the private Weather Underground.

Officials seemed to be caught off guard by the storm’s weakness compared to the forecasts.

“Mother Nature is an unpredictable lady sometimes,” Gov. Andrew Cuomo said at a morning press conference.

“She was unpredictable once again today. All the forecasts said the storm would hit New York City and Long Island the heaviest, although it would affect the entire state.”

While the city and Long Island were spared the worst of Stella, upstate New York took a beating, as a slew of towns and cities reported around 20 inches of snow by early Tuesday afternoon.

Broome County was expected to receive up to 35 inches of snow.

Parts of Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey were also clobbered by snow, sleet and wind when the nor’easter tracked west.

A blizzard warning for New York City was canceled at 8 a.m. Tuesday — but nearly 15 million people were still stuck in areas with blizzard conditions.

“In the end, New York wasn’t that bad and everything is shut down here,” said Rachel Holzberg, 24, of Ridgewood, NJ.

“We lost our power. I realized it was snowing pretty hard and everyone seemed to be cooped up inside, but I didn’t expect the power to go out.”

New York City should be relatively back to normal Wednesday morning. Mayor Bill de Blasio announced early in the day that schools would reopen — and defended his decision to shutter them during the storm.

I am sick of all this fake news crap, just an term that popped out nowhere, lets be honest the real fake news are your mainstream corporate media just pushing bs, it doesn't take an idiot to know that places closer to the coastal areas and I-95 areas would get mixing and rain haha

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2 hours ago, north pgh said:

You know this is the Canadian and this model nailed the other storm for our area 6 days out so I will keep an eye on it. Could be a good front end dump before changing to rain. We haven't had one of those is a while.

Canadian verifies to have done the best in the longer range. I don't have the Euro numbers, but Canadian did way better than the GFS.

Screen Shot 2017-03-15 at 4.13.09 PM.png

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NOAA Spring outlook for this area is for above normal temperatures, above normal for the eastern 2/3 of the country for that matter.  I'll take it.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/spring-outlook-risk-of-major-flooding-in-north-dakota-moderate-flooding-in-idaho

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55 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

I did a little analoging for years in the past in which we had a pretty neutral ENSO that  was heading into an El Nino. Lots of cooler summers and only one (2002) in which we had a really warm summer.

Screen Shot 2017-03-17 at 9.04.19 AM.png

Here's the winter analogs of those years you plotted.

Wk8CAby.png

And the year by year

btgfulT.png

FK5Fr4d.png

hUFyepY.png

cd100.6.30.88.75.8.5.31.prcp.png

KDT6t5a.png

S6MtzHW.png

7NlFzND.png

ybzF3mx.png

1pRwWmR.png

V12ZWjR.png

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Not really, two were near normal, two Above normal and 6 below in terms of snowfall. Two winters were super ninos.

 

Winter 51-52: 27" Weak El Nino

Winter 57-58: 30" Strong El Nino

Winter 65-66: 48" Strong El Nino

Winter 72-73" 26.3" Strong El Nino

Winter 82-83: 30.1" Super El Nino

Winter 86-87: 30" Moderate El Nino

Winter 97-98: 24.2" Super El Nino

Winter 02-03 61.8"  Moderate El Nino

Winter 09-10: 77.4" Moderate El Nino

Winter 14-15: 47.5" Very Weak Nino

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2 hours ago, meatwad said:

Not really, two were near normal, two Above normal and 6 below in terms of snowfall. Two winters were super ninos.

 

Winter 51-52: 27" Weak El Nino

Winter 57-58: 30" Strong El Nino

Winter 65-66: 48" Strong El Nino

Winter 72-73" 26.3" Strong El Nino

Winter 82-83: 30.1" Super El Nino

Winter 86-87: 30" Moderate El Nino

Winter 97-98: 24.2" Super El Nino

Winter 02-03 61.8"  Moderate El Nino

Winter 09-10: 77.4" Moderate El Nino

Winter 14-15: 47.5" Very Weak Nino

Looks like you are right. Seems strange though with 6 of the 10 being below average temps

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Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
507 PM EDT FRI MAR 17 2017

OHZ040-041-050-PAZ013-014-020>022-029-073-WVZ001-002-172230-
Jefferson-Columbiana-Carroll-Armstrong-Butler-Lawrence-Westmoreland-
Beaver-Washington-Allegheny-Brooke-Hancock-
507 PM EDT FRI MAR 17 2017

...AN AREA OF SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTHERN JEFFERSON...
COLUMBIANA...NORTHERN CARROLL...NORTHERN WASHINGTON...BEAVER...
SOUTHWESTERN LAWRENCE...SOUTHERN BUTLER...ALLEGHENY...NORTHWESTERN
WESTMORELAND...SOUTHWESTERN ARMSTRONG...NORTHEASTERN BROOKE AND
HANCOCK COUNTIES...

At 503 PM EDT, an area of snow was centered near Lisbon of
Columbiana County.  This area was moving east at 40 mph. Temperature
has fallen below freezing with the onset of precipitation.

A quick half, to one inch of snow is possible as this area crosses
the Pittsburgh area during the rush hour.

Motorists are advised to increase distance between vehicles
and exercise extreme caution, especially on bridges and overpasses.

Locations impacted include...
Pittsburgh...                     Penn Hills...
Mount Lebanon...                  Bethel Park...
Ross Township...                  McCandless Township...
Monroeville...                    Cranberry...
Moon Township...                  McMurray...
Weirton...                        McKeesport...

This includes the following highways...
  Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 8 and 56.

  Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 22 and 58.

  Parkway North between mile markers 1 and 13.

LAT...LON 4019 7993 4063 8128 4073 8113 4073 8109
      4076 8109 4093 8082 4090 8082 4090 8060
      4069 7957
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 273DEG 33KT 4069 8074

$$
15


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